Analysis of the Impact of XPeng Motors (XPEV)'s Overseas Layout on Global Competitiveness and Valuation

Based on the obtained data, I will systematically analyze the impact of XPeng Motors’ accelerated overseas manufacturing layout on its global competitiveness and valuation.

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XPeng Motors’ overseas expansion has entered the

stage, featuring a full-chain layout of “R&D, production, sales, and service”:

Dimension	Details
R&D Centers	9 global R&D centers established worldwide (the Munich, Germany R&D center is the first in Europe)
Localized Production Bases	3 overseas plants: Indonesia (first overseas plant), Austria (first in Europe), Malaysia (to start mass production in 2026)
Market Coverage	Business launched in 60 countries and regions, ranking first in sales among Chinese new energy vehicle (NEV) makers in 10 markets
Sales Network	321 overseas sales and service outlets covering 52 countries and regions
Charging Network	Over 2.66 million accessible charging piles globally, covering 31 countries and regions

According to the strategic plan disclosed by management, overseas manufacturing in 2026 will see

[0][1]:

• Malaysian Plant
  : Mass production to start in 2026 with an annual capacity of 50,000 units, built as a strategic hub serving the entire ASEAN right-hand drive market [1]
• Product Line Expansion
  : Covering smart vehicles, Robotaxi (autonomous ride-hailing taxis), robots, and low-altitude flying vehicles (“Land Aircraft Carrier”) [0]
• Regional Deepening
  : Enter 10 new European countries; target top 3 in global NEV exports by 2027 [1]
• Charging Network Expansion
  : Roll out self-operated supercharging networks to European, Asian, and American markets [1]

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XPeng Motors has moved beyond the simple product export stage; accelerated overseas localized production signifies a fundamental shift in its business model:

Dimension	Traditional Export Model	Systematized Output Model
Cost Structure	High transportation and tariff costs	Local production reduces logistics and tariff costs
Response Speed	Long delivery cycle (30-45 days via sea freight)	Localized production enables rapid response to market demand
Policy Risk	Vulnerable to trade barriers and anti-dumping measures	Localized production avoids trade policy risks
Brand Building	Relies on dealer networks	Directly reaches end-users to strengthen brand awareness

While its pure electric lineup has gained widespread recognition, XPeng Motors is vigorously promoting

, with a clear strategic intent: to pave the way for globalization [1].

He Xiaopeng admitted that when expanding into global markets, the company found that charging infrastructure in many countries lags far behind that of China, with unstable networks. Therefore, the “One Vehicle, Two Power Sources” strategy has become an inevitable choice to meet the diversified needs of global markets.

• G7 Super Extended-Range Version
  : Combined cruising range of 1,704 km, 1,108.3 km tested in extreme cold conditions
• P7+ Extended-Range Version
  : Combined cruising range of 1,550 km; BEV version has a cruising range of 725 km
• Price Competitiveness
  : Extended-range versions are priced close to their pure electric counterparts in the same class (approximately $25,200-$26,700)

The synergistic effects of overseas localized production and global R&D networks are emerging:

“The synergistic effects of localized production and global R&D networks are driving XPeng Motors’ overseas business into a period of rapid growth. From January to November 2025, XPeng Motors’ overseas deliveries reached 39,773 units, representing a year-on-year increase of 95%.” [1]

ASEAN is one of the core regions of XPeng Motors’ overseas strategy:

Indicator	Data
2025 Overseas Deliveries	45,008 units, up 96% year-on-year
X9 Sales in Malaysia	Top-selling premium electric MPV
Rank of Pure Electric Brands in Malaysia	Ranks among the top 6 in cumulative sales
Market Outlook	Malaysia’s NEV sales grew over 200% year-on-year in 2024, with penetration rising rapidly

XPeng Motors plans to deploy R&D and technological capabilities in ASEAN, aiming to build Malaysia into a regional technology hub [1].

The European market is a key battleground to test XPeng’s global competitiveness:

• Competitors
  : Industry giants such as Tesla, Volkswagen, and Stellantis
• Entry Strategy
  : Localized production in Austria (Magna Steyr plant in Graz) + Munich, Germany R&D center
• Product Strategy
  : The 2026 P7+ is a globally co-developed, simultaneously launched model, which went on sale in Brussels, Belgium, Europe on January 9 [1]

XPeng Motors is strategically transitioning from a “smart electric vehicle company” to a “physical AI company”:

Technology	Features
2nd-Generation VLA Large Model	End-to-end visual-language-action model, a global foundation model with 72 billion parameters
Tianji AIOS 6.0 System	Intelligent operating system integrated with AI large model capabilities
Self-Developed Turing AI Chip	3 chips providing 2,250 TOPS of computing power, supporting Level 4 autonomous driving
Robot Technology	60% of the technology for the Iron Humanoid Robot is reused from the automotive business

He Xiaopeng stated that the company “does not want to be just a car company that sells hardware at low prices” but “hopes to become a global technology company” [0].

2025 delivery data validates the effectiveness of XPeng’s strategy:

• Total Deliveries
  : 429,445 units, up 126% year-on-year
• Average Monthly Deliveries
  : 35,787 units (reached 37,508 units in December 2025)
• MONA M03 Contribution
  : Accounts for over 40% of sales, becoming a mainstream mass-market smart car
• Overseas Sales Share
  : Overseas sales account for over 10% of total deliveries

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Indicator	Value
Current Stock Price	$20.02
Market Capitalization	$19.02B
52-Week Price Range	$11.61 - $28.23
P/E (TTM)	-23.50x (loss-making)
P/B	2.24x
P/S	1.90x

Valuations under three scenarios based on the DCF model [0]:

Scenario	Valuation	vs. Current Price
Conservative Scenario	$8.75	-56.3%
Base Scenario	$31.55	+57.6%
Optimistic Scenario	$32.79	+63.8%
Probability-Weighted Valuation	$24.36	+21.7%

Assumption Indicator	Conservative Scenario	Base Scenario	Optimistic Scenario
Revenue Growth Rate	0.0%	62.6%	65.6%
EBITDA Margin	-22.6%	-23.8%	-25.0%
Terminal Growth Rate	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%
Cost of Equity	13.9%	12.4%	10.9%
WACC	7.5%	7.5%	7.5%

Indicator	Value
Consensus Target Price	$29.50
Target Price Range	$25.00 - $34.00
Upside Potential	+47.4%
Rating Distribution	Buy: 62.5%, Hold: 18.8%, Sell: 18.8%

Recent analyst actions indicate optimism:

• 2026-01-06: Freedom Capital Markets upgraded to Buy
• 2025-08-20: Citigroup maintained Buy rating
• 2025-08-19: B of A Securities maintained Buy rating

Overseas localized production will drive revenue growth through the following channels:

Channel	Impact
Market Scale Expansion	60 target markets vs. single Chinese market
Market Share Improvement	Ranked 8th in global NEV sales in 2025 (7 of the top 10 are Chinese brands) [0]
Capacity Release	Malaysian plant with annual capacity of 50,000 units to start mass production in 2026
Product Line Expansion	4 new models covering multiple price segments in 2026

Overseas localized production is expected to improve the company’s profit structure:

Improvement Factor	Impact Mechanism
Tariff Avoidance	Avoids EU tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles (currently approximately 35-45%)
Logistics Cost Reduction	Localized production reduces long-distance transportation costs (accounting for 5-10% of total costs)
Economies of Scale	Increased output dilutes fixed costs
Premium Capability	Enhanced localized brand image supports price premiums

Catalyst	Expected Impact
Mass Production at Malaysian Plant	Q2 2026, verifying overseas production capabilities
Sales Breakthrough in Europe	Entry into 10 new European countries in 2026, validating market acceptance
Robotaxi Launch	“Street trials are imminent”, opening a new growth curve
Profit Inflection Point	Expected to achieve break-even in 2026-2027

Risk Type	Details
Policy Risk	Uncertainty in EU tariff policies on Chinese electric vehicles, U.S. market access restrictions
Competition Risk	Head-on competition with Tesla, Volkswagen, and Stellantis in the European market
Execution Risk	Challenges in overseas localized production including supply chain, local adaptation, and quality control
Technology Risk	Validation of actual user experience for new technologies such as VLA, and quality stability during large-scale deliveries
Macroeconomic Risk	Global economic slowdown affecting NEV demand, geopolitical risks

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1. Competitiveness Dimension
   :
   • The model upgrade from product export to systematized output greatly enhances its ability to enter international markets and risk resilience
   • The “One Vehicle, Two Power Sources” strategy effectively adapts to the uneven charging infrastructure globally
   • AI intelligent driving technology provides differentiated competitive advantages to support brand premium capabilities

2. Valuation Dimension
   :
   • DCF base scenario valuation of $31.56, representing a 57.6% upside from the current price
   • Probability-weighted valuation of $24.36, representing a 21.7% upside from the current price
   • Analyst consensus target price of $29.50, representing a 47.4% upside from the current price

The current technical outlook shows a

pattern [0]:

• Trend Judgment
  : Neutral (no obvious upward or downward trend)
• Price Range
  : $19.58 (support) / $20.46 (resistance)
• MACD Indicator
  : No crossover signal, slightly bullish
• KDJ Indicator
  : K=33.3, D=41.8, J=16.4, slightly weak
• RSI Indicator
  : Within the normal range

Valuation Method	Valuation	vs. Current Price	Rating
DCF Conservative Scenario	$8.75	-56.3%	Overvalued
DCF Base Scenario	$31.55	+57.6%	Significantly Undervalued
DCF Optimistic Scenario	$32.79	+63.8%	Significantly Undervalued
Probability-Weighted DCF	$24.36	+21.7%	Slightly Undervalued
Analyst Consensus	$29.50	+47.4%	Significantly Undervalued
Current Stock Price	$20.02	-	-

1. Q1 2026
   : Mass production progress of the Malaysian plant
2. Q2 2026
   : Mass production and delivery of the “Land Aircraft Carrier” flying vehicle, launch of Robotaxi street trials
3. March 2026
   : 2025 Q4 financial report (expected to be released on 2026-03-17)
4. Full Year 2026
   : Progress in entering 10 new European markets, increase in overseas sales share

: Overseas expansion underperforming expectations, escalating policy risks, delayed technology implementation

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[0] Jinling AI Financial Database - XPeng Motors (XPEV) Real-Time Quotes, Company Profile, Financial Analysis, Technical Analysis, DCF Valuation Data (2026-01-11)

[1] Securities Times Network - “XPeng Motors’ Third Overseas Localized Production Project to Settle in Malaysia” (https://www.stcn.com/article/detail/3541525.html)

[2] Gasgoo Auto - “The Second Half of Smart EVs: XPeng’s Strategy Evolves” (https://auto.gasgoo.com/news/202601/9I70441859C109.shtml)

[3] 21st Century Business Herald - “Insights into XPeng’s 2026 Confidence and Determination from Two Interviews” (https://www.21jingji.com/article/20260109/herald/4264adefcf91ae97371ba92fc7e24fd7.html)

[4] Benzinga - “China’s Xpeng CEO Touts ‘Physical AI’ Vision” (https://www.benzinga.com/markets/asia/26/01/49806868)

[5] Interesting Engineering - “‘World’s longest range’ hybrid SUV launched by China’s Xpeng” (https://interestingengineering.com/transportation/xpeng-world-longest-range-hybrid-suv)