Analysis of the Impact of Shenzhen's Affordable Housing Policy on the Real Estate Market and REITs Investment

Based on the latest information searched, I will systematically analyze the impact of Shenzhen’s affordable housing policy on the local real estate market and REITs investment for you.

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According to policy documents released by the Shenzhen Municipal Government and media reports, the “Anju Entrepreneurship Support Program” was officially launched and implemented on January 11, 2026 [1][2].

Policy Elements	Specific Content
Pilot Scope	7 communities including Anju Konggang Garden are the first to launch the pilot
Support Intensity	Three-year rent subsidy
Beneficiary Groups	Residents who have purchased or rented affordable housing and their co-applicants (excluding minor children)
Implementing Entity	Shenzhen Anju Group
Follow-up Arrangements	Gradual promotion based on feedback from the first batch of pilots

This program is an important supporting measure for Shenzhen to attract young talents to develop in the city, and forms a policy synergy with the “Several Measures on Strengthening Service Guarantees for Young Talents to Develop in Shenzhen”, providing housing security from “a bed” to “a room” [1].

As a first-tier city with a population of over 20 million, Shenzhen’s affordable housing construction undertakes an important livelihood security function. According to the report from S&P Global Ratings China, Shenzhen Anju Group is the only specialized institution for affordable housing in Shenzhen, with

in its positioning, and has a “very high” government external support rating [3].

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In 2025, Shenzhen’s real estate market showed a trend of

, with significant market differentiation characteristics:

Indicator Category	Data Performance
Total Online Signed New Homes	37,879 units (24,500 pre-sold units + 13,300 existing units)
December Second-hand Housing Transactions	4,941 units (annual peak)
Destocking Cycle	Approximately 10 months (at a safe level nationwide)
Market Structure	Coexistence of luxury housing sales boom and suburban market slump

[4][5]

Shenzhen’s real estate market shows an obvious

:

• Core Areas (Futian, Nanshan, Bao’an Central District)
  : Relatively stable prices and strong demand resilience
• Emerging Middle-class Areas (Longhua, Guangming)
  : Active transactions, but a relatively large decline in housing prices
• Eastern Areas (Yantian, Dapeng, Pingshan)
  : Sluggish transactions, with zero transactions in some areas
• Luxury Housing Market
  : Top-tier projects performed impressively, with an average price of RMB 150,000-300,000 per square meter, selling out upon launch

Impact Dimension	Specific Analysis
Demand Diversion	Affordable housing provides diversified products from “a bed” to “a room”, diverting demand from the commodity housing market for rigid needs
Price Anchoring	The price of affordable housing is locked at a certain discount to surrounding housing prices, forming a reference for the prices of surrounding commodity housing
Rent Stability	The three-year rent subsidy policy helps stabilize rent expectations in the rental market
Talent Attraction	The policy package enhances Shenzhen’s attractiveness to young talents, increasing the fundamental housing demand in the long term

According to the analysis by Li Yujia, Chief Researcher of the Guangdong Provincial Housing Policy Research Center, Shenzhen started to address the shortcomings of affordable housing in 2019. Generally, the supply and demand cycle of affordable housing is about 3 years. The large-scale supply in 2022 coincided with a downturn in the housing market, forming a two-way impact on supply and demand [6]. At the current stage, the linkage between affordable housing policies and talent introduction helps cultivate domestic demand.

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In 2025, the rental housing REITs market showed

:

Characteristic	Specific Performance
Dual-wheel Drive of Initial Listing + Expansion	New projects are listed and expanded simultaneously, with diversified scale growth engines
Stable Operation of Underlying Assets	Occupancy rates generally exceed 95% (some are close to full occupancy), with mid-term revenues all exceeding RMB 20 million
Intensified Sector Differentiation	High-quality assets have obvious premiums, and projects with superior locations and outstanding operational capabilities have stronger anti-drop resilience

[7][8]

Indicator	Data Performance	Industry Comparison
Average Annual Distribution Rate	Stable at over 4%	Outperforming traditional bond returns
Average Monthly Rent per Unit YoY	+1.6%	Outperforming the industry average of -3.5%, 5.1 percentage points higher
Overall Occupancy Rate	Approximately 96%	Remaining stable at a high level
Dividend Completion Rate in H1 2025	92.8%-160.9%	With continuous enhancement of distribution capabilities

Huatai Securities, ICCRA Statistics [7]

┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│                    Policy Transmission Mechanism            │
├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│  Shenzhen Anju Group (AAAspc/Stable Rating)                 │
│        ↓                                                     │
│  Expand affordable housing construction scale → Increase asset reserves → Enhance expansion potential            │
│        ↓                                                     │
│  Rent subsidy policy → Enhance tenant stability → Improve cash flow predictability          │
│        ↓                                                     │
│  Talent introduction effect → Expand rental demand → Guarantee occupancy rate                    │
│        ↓                                                     │
│  REITs investment value ↑ (Distribution rate stability + Asset appreciation potential)             │
└─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘

According to calculations by CITIC Securities, the rental housing REITs market is expected to further improve quality and expand in scale in 2026 [7]:

Indicator	Forecast Data
Number of New Listed Projects	8-10
New Issuance Scale	Exceeding RMB 15 billion
Expansion Scale	Exceeding RMB 5 billion
Total Market Value	Exceeding the RMB 50 billion mark

S&P Global Ratings Hong Kong predicts that the scale of China’s rental housing REITs will

in the next 18 months, with further expansion potential [7].

Based on the policy environment and market trends, professional institutions recommend focusing on three core main lines [7][8]:

Main Line	Investment Recommendations
Counter-cyclical High-quality Assets	Prioritize rental housing REITs in core locations of core cities, with occupancy rates stably above 95% and potential for steady rent growth
Targets with Strong Operational Capabilities	Focus on projects with mature operating systems that can improve asset occupancy rates and rent levels through refined management
Products with Expansion Potential	Prioritize REITs products where the original beneficial owner has abundant high-quality affordable housing asset reserves and clear expansion plans

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Impact Dimension	Short-term (1-2 Years)	Medium-to-long-term (3-5 Years)
Price Impact	Affordable housing forms price anchoring for the rigid demand market, curbing housing price increases	Talent introduction drives demand and supports market stabilization
Transaction Volume	Affordable housing transactions supplement the overall market size	Destocking pressure of existing commodity housing gradually eases
Regional Differentiation	The gap between core areas and suburbs continues	Optimized layout of affordable housing may narrow the gap
Market Structure	The pattern of simultaneous rental and purchase is strengthened	Form a dual-track pattern of commodity housing and affordable housing

Impact Dimension	Assessment Conclusion
Cash Flow Stability	The rent subsidy policy enhances tenant stickiness and improves cash flow predictability
Asset Scarcity	Affordable housing assets in core locations of Shenzhen are scarce, with strong valuation support
Expansion Space	Shenzhen Anju Group has a large scale of under-construction projects (the expected total investment of major under-construction projects as of the end of March 2025 is RMB 85.13 billion), providing sufficient asset reserves for REITs expansion [3]
Credit Support	The Shenzhen State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission provides “very high” external support, with a main credit rating of AAAspc/Stable [3]
Allocation Value	Amid the “asset shortage” logic, rental housing REITs with high dividends and medium-to-low risks have prominent allocation cost-effectiveness

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• Regional Differentiation Risk
  : Destocking pressure persists in non-core eastern areas, with possible zero transactions in some areas
• Insufficient Purchasing Power for Rigid Needs
  : The income of salaried groups is affected, restricting the release of rigid and improved housing demand
• Destocking Pressure of Affordable Housing
  : Affordable housing projects in non-core locations face sales pressure amid the housing price downturn [3]

• Change in Market Preference
  : Differentiation within the sector intensifies, with projects of average asset quality experiencing large declines
• Differentiation of Underlying Assets
  : Attention should be paid to differences in location and operational capabilities of different projects
• Policy Implementation Progress
  : The pace of pilot promotion may affect the expansion speed of the market scale

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The implementation of Shenzhen’s “Anju Entrepreneurship Support Program” will have comprehensive impacts through the following paths:

1. On the real estate market
   : In the short term, it will divert demand and form price anchoring for the rigid demand market; in the medium-to-long term, it will cultivate the fundamental housing demand through talent introduction, and the market differentiation pattern is expected to continue

2. On REITs investment
   : The policy enhances the cash flow stability and tenant stickiness of underlying assets, while providing sufficient asset reserves for REITs expansion, improving the allocation value of rental housing REITs in Shenzhen

3. Investment recommendations
   : It is recommended that investors focus on rental housing REITs targets with
   core locations, high occupancy rates, strong operational capabilities, and expansion potential
   , and grasp the three core main lines of anti-cyclicality, strong operation, and expansion potential

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[1] Shenzhen Special Zone Daily - “Housing Security, Entrepreneurship Support, and Convenient Settlement: Shenzhen’s Heavy New Policy Invites Young Talents” (https://www.sz.gov.cn/cn/xxgk/zfxxgj/zwdt/content/post_12553301.html)

[2] Securities Times - “Shenzhen’s ‘Anju Entrepreneurship Support Program’ Launches” (https://www.stcn.com/article/detail/3585022.html)

[3] S&P Global Ratings China - “Credit Rating Report on Shenzhen Anju Group Co., Ltd.” (https://www.spgchinaratings.cn/upload/20251024-ShenzhenPublicHousing-Ratingreport.pdf)

[4] Tencent News - “2025 Real Estate Market Review: Ambiguous Data Calls for Further Stimulus Policies” (https://news.qq.com/rain/a/20260103A07FIS00)

[5] Wenxue City - “Policy Benefits Continue: Can the Real Estate Market Welcome a ‘Little Spring’ Rally?” (https://www.wenxuecity.com/news/2026/01/08/126481311.html)

[6] Securities Times - “Rigid Demand Homebuyers in Shenzhen with a RMB 5 Million Budget Still Hesitant After Viewing Houses for Half a Year” (https://www.stcn.com/article/detail/3572427.html)

[7] Sina Finance - “2025 Rental Housing REITs Market Overview: Scale Expansion and Market Fluctuations” (https://finance.sina.com.cn/money/bond/2025-12-18/doc-inhcfvmf2953294.shtml)

[8] Kaiyuan Securities - “Special Report on Affordable Housing REITs: Rental Housing REITs Enter the Market One After Another, High-quality Assets Help Build a New Real Estate Model” (https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H301_AP202503141644364553_1.pdf)