Impact Analysis of Changes in U.S. Policies Regarding Venezuela's Oil Revenue

I will now prepare a comprehensive financial analysis report based on the collected data.

According to the latest information, the U.S. Trump administration announced major adjustments to its oil policy towards Venezuela in early January 2026[1]. The core contents include:

• Selective Sanctions Relief
  : The U.S. will “selectively” lift some sanctions against Venezuela to allow Venezuelan oil sales to the U.S.
• Revenue Control Mechanism
  : The U.S. will “indefinitely” control Venezuelan oil sales; revenues will be deposited into an account controlled by the U.S. government before being distributed to the Venezuelan government
• Production Increase Target
  : The Trump administration plans to boost Venezuela’s oil production, with the goal of capping oil prices at
  $50 per barrel
• Investment Incentive
  : Trump has required U.S. oil companies to invest at least $100 billion in Venezuela[2]

According to the statement by U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright on January 7, 2026, the U.S. plans to:

• Exercise certain control over Petróleos de Venezuela, S.A. (PdVSA) through agreements
• Take charge of selling oil produced by Venezuela
• Authorize the import of oilfield equipment, parts, and services to Venezuela to modernize and expand its oil production capacity
• Collaborate with major oil trading firms (such as Mercuria, Vitol Group, and Trafigura Group) to sell oil[1]

Based on the latest data from OPEC and Trading Economics[3]:

Venezuela’s oil production plummeted from 2.58 million barrels per day in 2015 to 0.392 million barrels per day in 2020, mainly due to the following reasons:

• Restricted imports of technical equipment due to U.S. sanctions
• Insufficient investment and aging infrastructure
• Management issues at state-owned oil company PdVSA
• Funding shortages and brain drain

According to research from the International Energy Agency (IEA) and Goldman Sachs[4][5], the global oil market will face a significant supply surplus in 2026:

According to analysis from TD Securities[6]:

1. Limited Short-Term Impact
   : Venezuela’s current production (approximately 1 million barrels per day) accounts for only about 1% of global supply, so its short-term impact on the global supply landscape is limited

2. Supply Recovery Potential
   : If U.S. sanctions are fully lifted and large-scale investment is made, Venezuela’s production may gradually recover to 1.5-2 million barrels per day, but this requires
   several years
   and
   tens of billions of dollars in investment

3. Dependence on Chinese Market
   : Currently, most of Venezuela’s oil is exported to China; if the U.S. wants to regain market share, it needs to rebuild trade channels

4. Supply Chain Restructuring
   : U.S. intervention may cause Venezuelan oil trade routes to shift from China to U.S. and European refineries

The recovery of Venezuela’s oil production may affect OPEC+'s production policies:

• If Venezuela significantly increases production, OPEC+ may need to extend production cuts to maintain oil price balance
• Increased production from non-OPEC oil-producing countries (the U.S., Canada, Brazil) has already led to oversupply in the market
• Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are preparing for a new round of upstream investment[5]

According to the latest market data[7][8], energy stocks have shown divided reactions to the changes in Venezuela-related policies:

Statement by Darren Woods, CEO of ExxonMobil, at a White House meeting[2]:

“Looking at the existing commercial and legal frameworks in Venezuela — today, it is uninvestable. Major changes must be made to these commercial frameworks and legal systems, there must be a lasting investment protection mechanism, and the country’s hydrocarbon laws must be revised.”

Woods also stated that Exxon will send a technical team to Venezuela to assess operating conditions, but is reserved about large-scale investment.

Mark Nelson, Vice President of Chevron, expressed a more positive stance[8]:

• Chevron is “committed” to its operations in Venezuela
• Expects production to increase by
  50%
  within the next 18-24 months
• As a company with joint projects with PdVSA, Chevron may be among the first to benefit from sanctions relief

According to reports, ConocoPhillips is taking a wait-and-see attitude towards investing in Venezuela and has not yet made any commitments.

┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│              Energy Stock Investment Impact Assessment      │
├─────────────────┬─────────────────┬─────────────────────────┤
│     Short-Term  │    Mid-Term     │         Long-Term       │
│   (1-6 months)  │  (6-18 months)  │    (18+ months)         │
├─────────────────┼─────────────────┼─────────────────────────┤
│ • Expectations  │ • Actual        │ • Capacity recovery     │
│   of increased  │   production    │   level                 │
│   supply cap    │   growth        │ • Geopolitical risks    │
│   oil prices    │   determines    │ • Impact of global      │
│ • Sanctions     │   returns       │   energy transition     │
│   relief creates│ • Investment    │ • Capital expenditure   │
│   opportunities │   returns       │   payback period        │
│                 │   realized      │                         │
├─────────────────┼─────────────────┼─────────────────────────┤
│ Risk/Reward:    │ Risk/Reward:    │ Risk/Reward: High       │
│ Moderate        │ High            │ Uncertainty             │
└─────────────────┴─────────────────┴─────────────────────────┘

1. Focus on Beneficiary Targets
   : Prioritize companies with existing exposure to Venezuelan operations, such as Chevron (CVX)
2. Exercise Caution in Chasing Rallies
   : The energy sector may rise in the short term due to policy expectations, but risks of a pullback must be heeded
3. Focus on Refining Stocks
   : Companies such as Marathon Petroleum (MPC) and Valero Energy (VLO) may benefit from cheap crude oil supply

1. Assess Production Increase Progress
   : Closely track the actual production recovery of Venezuela
2. Focus on Cost Curves
   : If oil prices remain in the range of $50-$60 per barrel for a long time, it will pressure high-cost producers
3. Focus on U.S. Shale Oil Reactions
   : U.S. shale oil producers may cut production due to low oil prices, affecting the supply landscape

1. Geopolitical Risks
   : Venezuela’s political situation remains unstable; investors need to assess the risk of policy reversals
2. Investment Protection Mechanisms
   : Wait for Venezuela to establish a sound investment protection framework before considering large-scale investment
3. Global Energy Transition
   : In the long term, consider the impact of energy transition on oil demand

1. Far-Reaching but Gradual Policy Impact
   : Changes in U.S. policies regarding Venezuela’s oil revenue will have a far-reaching impact on the global energy market, but actual effects will take time to emerge.

2. Limited Short-Term Impact
   : Venezuela’s current production is only around 1 million barrels per day, which is unlikely to change the global supply landscape in the short term. The 3.85 million barrels per day supply surplus predicted by the IEA for 2026 mainly comes from increased production in the U.S., Canada, Brazil, and other countries.

3. Downward Pressure on Oil Prices
   : Against the backdrop of supply surplus, coupled with the potential entry of Venezuelan oil into the market, oil prices face downward pressure. Analysts predict that Brent crude oil prices will range from $55 to $68 per barrel in 2026, aligning with the Trump administration’s target of $50 per barrel.

4. Divided Attitudes Among Energy Companies
   : Companies with existing operations such as Chevron may be among the first to benefit, while new entrants like Exxon are cautious, reflecting concerns about Venezuela’s investment environment.

5. Invest with Caution
   : Given Venezuela’s political instability and the potential for sanction policy reversals, investors should adopt a prudent attitude and wait for clearer investment protection mechanisms to be established before considering large-scale investment.

• Monthly oil production data of Venezuela
• Specific adjustments to U.S. Treasury sanctions against Venezuela
• Capital expenditure plans of major oil companies (Chevron, Exxon)
• Changes in global oil inventories
• OPEC+ production policy adjustments

[1] Guancha.cn - “If Trump’s Plan Succeeds, He Will Control Most of the Western Hemisphere’s Oil Reserves” (2026-01-08)
[2] Business Insider - “Exxon CEO calls Venezuela ‘uninvestable’ during meeting with Trump” (2026-01-10)
[3] Trading Economics - “Venezuela Crude Oil Production” (November 2025 data)
[4] Reuters - “Five energy market trends to track in 2026, the year of the glut” (2025-12-29)
[5] Oil Price - “Big Oil Prepares for Leaner Prices and Harder Choices in 2026” (2025-12-30)
[6] TD Securities - “Oil Market Expectations Following the Venezuelan Intervention” (2026-01-07)
[7] Guru Focus - “Exxon Mobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX) Cautious on Venezuela Investments” (2026-01-10)
[8] Investing.com - “Chevron sees pathway to grow Venezuela production by 50%, US energy secretary says” (2026-01-10)"