Analysis of MiniMax's Skyrocketing HKEX Listing: HKD 100 Billion Market Cap and Valuation Logic Restructuring

Based on collected data and market information, I will provide you with a

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On January 9, 2026, MiniMax (Xiyu Technology, Stock Code: 0100.HK) officially listed on the HKEX, becoming the largest AI large model company by IPO scale in history[1][2].

Indicator	Data
Offer Price	HKD 165 per share (upper pricing limit)
Opening Price	HKD 235 (+42.4%)
Closing Price	HKD 345 (+109.09%)
Highest Price	HKD 350 (+112.1%)
Debut Turnover	Approx. HKD 4.5 billion
Closing Market Cap on Debut	Approx. HKD 105 billion
Public Offer Subscription Multiple	1837x
Funds Raised	Approx. HKD 5.54 billion

MiniMax received an extremely enthusiastic market response, securing 14 prestigious cornerstone investors from home and abroad, including Aspex, Eastspring, Mirae Asset, ADIA (Abu Dhabi Investment Authority), Alibaba, E Fund, etc.[1][3]. The investor base covers multiple categories such as international long-term, leading tech, Chinese long-term, and strategic industrial investors, forming a strong value endorsement.

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MiniMax adopts a unique “

” strategy, forming a stark contrast with Zhipu AI’s “enterprise-end (B-end) technology-focused approach”[4].

Period	C-end Product Revenue as % of Total	B-end Service Revenue as % of Total	Key Products
2023	21.9%	78.1%	Talkie/Xingye
2024	71.4%	28.6%	Talkie/Xingye, Hailuo AI
First 9 Months of 2025	71.1%	28.9%	Talkie/Xingye, Hailuo AI, MiniMax Speech

• Talkie/Xingye
  : Full-modal interactive platform, generating USD 18.75 million in revenue in the first 9 months of 2025
• Hailuo AI
  : Visual generation platform, generating USD 17.46 million in revenue in the first 9 months of 2025, accounting for 32.6% of total revenue
• MiniMax Speech
  : Speech and music generation model

Period	Revenue (USD 10,000)	Year-on-year Growth Rate
2023	346	-
2024	3052	+782.1%
First 9 Months of 2025	5344	+174.8%

Period	Net Loss (USD 10,000)	R&D Investment (USD 10,000)	R&D as % of Revenue
2022	7373	1056	-
2023	26900	7000	2023%
2024	46500	18900	619%
First 9 Months of 2025	51200	18000	337%

• Adjusted net loss was
  nearly flat
  in 2025 compared to the same period last year, achieving effective loss narrowing amid high-speed growth
• Gross margin improved from
  -24.7%
  in 2023 to
  23.3%
  in the first 9 months of 2025

Indicator	2023	2024	First 9 Months of 2025
Cumulative Users	-	-	212 million (covering over 200 countries/regions)
MAU (Monthly Active Users)	3.14 million	19.1 million	27.62 million
Paying Users	120,000	650,000	1.77 million
Enterprise Clients	Approx. 100	Approx. 700	Approx. 2,500

• MiniMax is one of the
  “only four global companies with multi-modal models in the first echelon”
  [1]
• Self-developed full-modal general large models include: MiniMax M2.1, Hailuo 2.3, Speech 2.6, Music 2.0
• The R&D team has approximately 300 members, accounting for nearly 80% of the total workforce

• Overseas markets contribute
  over 70%
  of revenue
• A
  global revenue structure
  has been formed, reducing reliance on a single market

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Company	Market Cap (HKD 100 million)	2024 Revenue (HKD 100 million)	Price-to-Sales (PS) Ratio
Tencent (0700.HK)	45000	6600	6.8x
Alibaba (9988.HK)	18000	9400	1.9x
Meituan (3690.HK)	12000	2600	4.6x
Xiaomi (1810.HK)	8000	2800	2.9x
MiniMax	1050	Approx. 23	~455x
Zhipu AI	600	Approx. 25	~240x

Company/Type	Valuation (PS Ratio)	Listing Venue
MiniMax	455x	HKEX (2026.1)
Zhipu AI	240x	HKEX (2026.1)
OpenAI (Estimated)	~50x	Private (2025)
Anthropic (Estimated)	~30x	Private (2025)
A-share GPU Companies (Average)	~150x	STAR Market (2026)

• MiniMax’s revenue growth rate reached
  174.8%
  , far exceeding that of traditional internet giants
• User scale surged from 3.14 million MAU to 27.6 million, nearly 9x growth

• C-end revenue accounts for 71%, with
  user scale effect and monetization potential
• Talkie/Xingye alone generated nearly USD 20 million in annual revenue, validating the C-end commercialization path

• Overseas revenue accounts for >70%, with
  global growth potential
• Avoids policy risks in a single market

• R&D as a percentage of revenue dropped from 2023% to 337%, indicating
  scale effects are emerging
• The ratio of adjusted net loss to revenue continues to improve

• Cumulative losses over the past four years amounted to approximately
  USD 1.32 billion
• As of September 2025, cash balance was USD 1.05 billion, which can support operations for approximately
  3 years
  at the current burn rate

• Based on the debut closing price, the PS ratio is as high as 455x, far exceeding that of private companies like OpenAI
• If growth falls short of expectations, there is significant risk of a stock price correction

• Competition in the large model track is fierce, requiring direct competition with international giants such as OpenAI and Anthropic
• A unified and stable technical path has not yet been formed for multi-modal technology routes

• Text, speech, image, and video models belong to different technical systems
• It is necessary to maintain competitiveness in multiple directions simultaneously, with high investment intensity and management difficulty

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In 2026, Hong Kong-listed tech stocks are undergoing

[5][6]:

• Southbound capital continues to flow in, with net inflow expected to reach
  USD 200 billion
  in 2026, a record high
• The Hong Kong stock market is gradually breaking away from foreign capital’s emotional pricing of China-related risks
• It is more aligned with domestic industrial trends and capital preferences

• AI has been substantially reflected in the financial statements of Hong Kong-listed internet giants
• The predicted EPS growth rate of the Hang Seng Tech Index in 2026 is as high as
  34%
• A new growth engine has been activated for tech stocks such as Tencent and Alibaba

• The Fed’s interest rate cut cycle continues, accelerating global capital flows back to emerging markets
• The tone of moderately loose domestic monetary policy is clear
• A combination of “liquidity easing support + industrial profit improvement” has formed

Driver	Impact Intensity	Specific Performance
Increased Pricing Power of Domestic Capital	8.5/10	Southbound capital has become the largest buyer in the Hong Kong stock market
AI Profit Realization Cycle	8.0/10	Hang Seng Tech Index EPS growth rate of 34%
Liquidity Easing	7.5/10	Fed rate cuts + domestic RRR and interest rate cuts
Industrial Policy Support	7.0/10	Intensive introduction of digital economy and AI innovation policies
Hong Kong Stock Market Valuation Depression	6.5/10	Lower valuation compared to peer A-share companies

[7][8]:

Tenor	Interest Rate in Early 2024	Interest Rate in Early 2026	Decline
1 Month	1.5%	0.9%	-40%
3 Months	1.5%	0.9%	-40%
6 Months	1.7%	1.1%	-35%
1 Year	1.8%	1.35%	-25%

1. Record low growth in time deposits
   : As of November 2025, the increment of household time deposits was only CNY 11.03 trillion, CNY 4 trillion less than in 2023

2. Record high non-bank deposits
   : Reached CNY 6.74 trillion, CNY 1 trillion higher than the same period last year, and 2.1x the figure for the same period in 2023

3. Shift in household investment willingness
   : According to surveys, 57.2% of people expressed a desire to make financial investments (only 21.1% last year)

4. Continuous inflow of small-scale capital into A-shares
   : Cumulative net inflow reached approximately CNY 4 trillion in the second half of 2025

• The low-interest rate environment drives capital to seek higher returns
• Hong Kong-listed tech stocks have become an important recipient of “deposit migration”
• The ultra-high growth characteristics of AI large model companies are particularly attractive to capital with increased risk appetite

Dimension	HKEX	A-share STAR Market
Investor Structure	Institution-dominated (85%)	High retail investor share
Valuation Preference	Values clear profit path and cash flow	Willing to pay a “dream premium” for “hard tech”
Valuation of Peer Companies	Lower (approx. 1/3-1/2 of A-shares)	Higher
MiniMax-style Skyrocketing	Relatively moderate	Common (e.g., Moore Threads, Muxi saw several-fold gains on debut)

• The Hong Kong stock market values
  clear profit paths and healthy cash flow
• The A-share STAR Market holds high
  patience and dream premium
  for companies with “hard tech” attributes
• This also explains why MiniMax achieved a 109% gain on the HKEX, while peer companies on A-shares might see even higher gains

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• The 455x PS ratio significantly deviates from fundamentals
• High valuation amid sustained losses carries correction risk
• Market sentiment and capital flows are the main drivers

• If revenue maintains 100%+ growth and losses continue to narrow, the valuation can be gradually digested
• The user scale and monetization capability of the C-end product matrix are key
• International advantages and full-modal technological barriers provide a long-term moat

• The increased pricing power of domestic capital has brought a valuation system that focuses more on “industrial logic + long-term value”
• The AI profit realization cycle has started, changing the logic of only looking at valuation
• Liquidity easing + industrial policy support form a resonance
• Falling bank interest rates have accelerated capital allocation to equity assets

1. Valuation Correction Risk
   : The 455x PS ratio is based on high growth expectations; if growth falls short, there is significant downside risk for the stock price

2. Intensified Competition Risk
   : Competition in the large model track is fierce, with rapid technology route iteration

3. Sustained Loss Risk
   : Cumulative losses over the past four years amount to USD 1.32 billion, with rapid cash burn

4. Market Sentiment Volatility Risk
   : The Hong Kong stock market is dominated by institutional investors, who have high requirements for profit paths

Investor Type	Recommended Strategy
Aggressive	May participate with a small position, but must set stop-loss and pay attention to subsequent financial report data
Conservative	Wait for valuation to return to rationality, or choose Hong Kong tech ETFs for allocation
Institutional Investors	Can be used as a strategic allocation in the AI track, focusing on long-term industrial logic

• Whether quarterly revenue growth can remain above 100%
• Whether the loss rate continues to narrow
• User growth and monetization of core products (Talkie/Xingye, Hailuo AI)
• Changes in the proportion of overseas market revenue

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[1] The Paper - “MiniMax Lists on HKEX, Becoming the Largest AI Large Model Company by IPO Scale in History” (https://www.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_32349190)

[2] Sina Finance - “Market Cap Surpasses HKD 76.3 Billion! MiniMax Becomes the Largest AI Large Model Company by IPO Scale in History” (https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/t/2026-01-09/doc-inhfsniv5999493.shtml)

[3] Securities Times - “MiniMax Rises Over 60% on Debut, Investors including Alibaba and miHoYo Score Easy Gains” (https://www.stcn.com/article/detail/3583187.html)

[4] Huxiu - “The First Large Model Stock Fails to Spark a Market Frenzy” (https://www.huxiu.com/article/4825107.html)

[5] Zhihu Column - “2026 HKEX New Cycle: Resonance of Three Forces, AI Main Line Enters Profit Realization Phase” (https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/1992305946140095951)

[6] Sina Finance - “2026 HKEX New Cycle: Resonance of Three Forces, AI Main Line Enters Profit Realization Phase” (https://cj.sina.cn/articles/view/1593468244/5efa655402701mhxy)

[7] Securities Times - “Big Move by Banks! Interest Rates for This Type of Large-denomination CD Fall Below 1%” (https://www.stcn.com/article/detail/3584812.html)

[8] Tencent News - “2026: Great Deposit Migration?” (https://news.qq.com/rain/a/20260105A06S5W00)"