Operational Characteristics of Main Force Capital in the A-Share Market and Evaluation of the Effectiveness of Retail Investor Follow-Up Strategies

Based on the latest research data and market empirical analysis, I will systematically evaluate the operational characteristics of main force capital in the A-Share market and the effectiveness of retail investor follow-up strategies for you.

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In the context of the A-Share market, “main force capital” typically refers to market participants with large capital scales that have a significant impact on short-term stock price movements, mainly including the following categories [0][1]:

Main Force Capital Type	Representative Characteristics	Investment Style	2025 Dragon and Tiger List Share
Institutional Special Seats	Public funds, private funds, insurance funds, etc.	Value investment, long-term holding	20.57%
Stock Connect (Foreign Capital)	Northbound capital, overseas institutional investors	Focus on fundamentals, allocation-oriented	22.94%
Hot Money / Brokerage Departments	Well-known hot money, short-term capital	Theme speculation, trend following	35.49%

• Dragon and Tiger List Data
  : The top five brokerage departments for buying and selling abnormally volatile stocks published daily by the exchange
• Capital Flow Indicators
  : Large order net inflow/outflow amount and proportion
• Position Changes
  : Quarterly position disclosures by institutional investors

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Research based on 2025 Dragon and Tiger List data reveals the key operational rules of main force capital [1][2]:

• Institutional seats have broken the
  trillion-yuan mark
  in Dragon and Tiger List turnover for the first time in history (reaching 1.14 trillion yuan), accounting for 20.57% of total Dragon and Tiger List turnover [1]
• Stock Connect capital also exceeded the trillion-yuan mark, surpassing 1.27 trillion yuan, accounting for 22.94% [1]

• Institutional heavyweight stocks are highly concentrated in
  High-Boom Tracks
  , especially leading AI stocks with realized performance (Tianfu Communication, Xinyisheng, Demingli, Dongshan Precision, etc.) [1]
• Hot money focuses on
  Theme Speculation
  , and actively traded stocks on the Dragon and Tiger List generally have mediocre performance (Talkweb Information, Hengbao Co., Ltd., Snowman Group, etc.) [1]

According to the academic research Main Force Capital Anomalies and Investor Information Game, the operations of main force capital exhibit the following characteristics [3]:

Operation Phase	Behavioral Characteristics	Difficulty for Retail Investors to Respond
Position Building Phase	Hidden accumulation, batch buying	Difficult to identify
Shakeout Phase	Shock consolidation, washing out floating chips	Easy to be washed out
Pull-up Phase	Rapid pull-up, breaking new highs	Risk of chasing highs
Distribution Phase	High-volume at high prices, shock distribution	Risk of taking over

: Institutional investors attract retail investors to take over by releasing large order signals; retail investors choose to follow large order signals for investment to reduce information costs, forming a game equilibrium [3].

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According to the data of the

by Dragon and Tiger List turnover in 2025 compiled by Data Treasure [1][2]:

Time Horizon	Number of Brokerage Departments with Win Rate >50% After Net Buying	Proportion
Next Trading Day	24	24%
5 Trading Days	3	3%
120 Trading Days	11	11%

: Net buying signals are , with only 24% of brokerage departments able to achieve positive returns on the next trading day, and the long-term win rate drops significantly.

The same data source shows [1][2]:

Time Horizon	Number of Brokerage Departments with Win Rate >50% After Net Selling	Proportion
Next Trading Day	95	95%
5 Trading Days	98	98%
120 Trading Days	92	92%

: . The net selling signals of institutional seats and Stock Connect seats are particularly significant, with medium-to-long-term win rates exceeding 55% [1].

The performance of some high-profile top hot money is as follows [1][2]:

Hot Money / Seat	Turnover Scale	Short-Term Win Rate	Medium-to-Long-Term Performance
Chen Xiaoqun (Galaxy Securities Dalian Huanghe Road)	32 billion yuan	Next-day win rate 57%	Average 13% loss in 60 days
Zhang Mengzhu (Guotai Haitong Securities Jiangsu Road)	High	Next-day win rate >50%	Continued weakness
Chaogu Yangjia (Huaxin Securities Ruby Road)	Medium	Next-day win rate 70%	Later period win rate <50%
Sun Yu (CITIC Securities Shanghai Liyang Road)	High	<50%	Limited sustainability

: Most hot money has , making it difficult to support continuous upward stock price movements [1].

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Based on the above data analysis, I have constructed the following effectiveness evaluation matrix:

Follow-Up Strategy	Effectiveness Rating	Risk Level	Recommendation Level
Follow Net Selling Signals	85%	Low	★★★★★
Long-Term Holding of Index Funds	55%	Low	★★★★☆
Follow Institutional Seat Buying	35%	Medium	★★★☆☆
Follow Hot Money Seat Buying	25%	High	★★☆☆☆
Follow Net Buying Signals	20%	Very High	★☆☆☆☆

According to academic research, the factors affecting the predictive ability of main force capital signals include [3]:

1. Number of Retail Participants
   : The higher the retail participation in a stock, the stronger the predictive ability of main force capital
2. Market Capitalization Level
   : The follow-up effect is more significant for small and medium-cap stocks
3. Institutional Shareholding Ratio
   : The institutional shareholding ratio is positively correlated with signal effectiveness
4. Information Environment
   : The higher the degree of information asymmetry, the greater the value of follow-up strategies

• The public release time of Dragon and Tiger List data lags behind the actual trading time
• By the time retail investors obtain the information, main force capital may have already completed its operations

• Main force capital may deliberately create “false breakouts” to lure long positions or “false breakdowns” to lure short positions
• Net buying signals often become a “smokescreen” for main force capital to distribute shares

• The effectiveness of follow-up strategies is higher in a bull market
• The signal distortion rate rises significantly in volatile markets and bear markets

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The article Main Force Capital Anomalies and Investor Information Game provides an important theoretical framework [3]:

“The behavior of retail investors following main force capital is the result of rational game between different investors under information asymmetry. Institutional investors attract retail investors to take over by releasing large order signals; retail investors choose to follow large order signals for investment to reduce information costs. The result of the game leads to a positive correlation between the net inflow rate of main force capital and future stock returns.”

Academic research points out that the concept of “transaction surplus” is crucial to understanding this mechanism [3]:

• When retail participation is high, institutions can expect sufficient subsequent demand to support their positions
• Retail investors reduce information costs by following signals
• When large orders convey stronger information content, the transaction surplus is particularly substantial

Academic research puts forward the following recommendations to reduce irrational chasing by retail investors [3]:

• Build a standardized and transparent capital market
• Develop index investing
• Reduce the information disadvantage of retail investors
• Promote the further development and growth of institutional investors

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Strategy Recommendation	Specific Operations	Expected Effect
Prioritize Net Selling Signals	When institutions/Stock Connect have large net sales, decisively reduce positions	Avoid downside risks
Treat Net Buying Signals Cautiously	Avoid blindly chasing highs, combine with fundamental analysis	Reduce the risk of taking over shares
Extend Holding Period	Targets with institutional involvement are suitable for long-term holding	Capture value regression
Control Positions and Set Stop-Loss	Set strict stop-loss discipline	Limit the magnitude of losses

1. Information Lag Risk
   : There is a time lag in the release of Dragon and Tiger List data, which may cause missing the optimal operation timing
2. Risk of Main Force Reverse Operation
   : Main force capital may use the follow-up behavior of retail investors to conduct reverse operations
3. Market Environment Risk
   : The effectiveness of signals may drop significantly in extreme market conditions
4. Stock-Specific Risk
   : The fluctuation of a single stock may deviate from the overall pattern

Given the deepening institutionalization of the A-Share market, institutional investors with professional research and investment research capabilities are occupying a dominant position, and a rational pricing mechanism is gradually being established [1]. For ordinary investors:

• Index investing may be a better choice
• Over-reliance on seat effects for follow-up operations is difficult to achieve ideal results
• Establishing a scientific investment system and risk control mechanism is crucial

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Based on the latest 2025 data and market research, the effectiveness of main force capital operations and retail investor follow-up strategies in the A-Share market can be summarized as follows:

1. Net selling signals are far more referenceable than net buying signals
   (win rate comparison: 95% vs 24%)
2. Top hot money has acceptable short-term win rates but poor medium-to-long-term sustainability
   (average loss of 13% in 60 days)
3. Retail investor follow-up strategies are rational game behaviors but have significant limitations
4. Institutional dominance continues to strengthen, and market effectiveness is gradually improving
5. For ordinary investors, index investing and value investment may be better strategies

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[0] Data Tool API - Jinling AI Financial Database

[1] Securities Times - “In-Depth Analysis of Dragon and Tiger List Data! What is the Win Rate of Top Hot Money Like Chen Xiaoqun?” (https://www.stcn.com/article/detail/3573512.html)

[2] Sina Finance - “In-Depth Analysis of Dragon and Tiger List Data” (https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/zqgd/2026-01-06/doc-inhfives6053663.shtml)

[3] Kang Qi, Gao Feng, Liu Shuo, Wang Qian, Ye Ziwen - “Main Force Capital Anomalies and Investor Information Game”, Journal of Financial Research, Issue 1, 2025 (http://www.jryj.org.cn/CN/abstract/abstract1419.shtml)

[4] 21st Century Business Herald - “Summary of the 2024 A-Share M&A Market and 2025 Outlook” (https://www.21jingji.com/article/20250403/herald/7ac574248a1932aea3387c1607d1e3ae.html)