Analysis of the Impact of ODIDO's €1 Billion IPO on European Telecom Valuations

Based on the detailed information I have collected, I now present a comprehensive analysis report on the impact of ODIDO’s €1 billion Amsterdam IPO on the valuations of European telecom operators.

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ODIDO (formerly T-Mobile Netherlands) is the third-largest telecom operator in the Netherlands, formed after being acquired by private equity giants Apax Partners and Warburg Pincus for €5.1 billion in 2022 [1][2]. In September 2023, the company completed a brand rebranding, merging the former T-Mobile Nederland and Tele2 Nederland and renaming itself “Odido”, marking the completion of its integration strategy in the Dutch mobile communications market [3]. According to Accenture’s 2025 Mobile Network Test Report, ODIDO currently has approximately 8 million mobile users, holding a leading position in the Dutch market, and has been named the fastest 5G network in the Netherlands by Opensignal, with an average download speed of 331.9 Mbps [4].

The company’s strategic positioning focuses on providing integrated digital services, covering consumer and enterprise customer groups through a network of over 100 physical stores and approximately 2,000 employees [3]. In December 2024, ODIDO and Ericsson jointly established a technology center to showcase industrial-grade 5G application scenarios, and set a net-zero emission target for 2040 [4], reflecting its forward-looking layout in technological innovation and sustainable development.

According to financial data disclosed by Dutch financial media Financieele Dagblad, ODIDO achieved revenue of €2.3 billion in fiscal 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 2%, with adjusted EBITDA of €726 million [2]. However, affected by high interest expenses resulting from acquisition leverage, the company recorded a net loss of €96 million in the same period. This financial structure reflects the typical debt pressure characteristics of private equity acquisition models, and also explains the company’s decision to postpone the IPO to optimize its capital structure.

Indicator	Data	Description
Target Valuation	€7 billion	Approximately 39% premium over the €5.1 billion acquisition price
Fundraising Scale	Approximately €1 billion	Accounts for 14-15% of post-issue share capital
Underwriters	To be determined	Rumored to include multiple international investment banks
Listing Venue	Euronext Amsterdam	One of Europe’s leading listing venues for telecom companies
Latest Timeline	January or Autumn 2026	Subject to market conditions [1][2]

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The European telecom industry is undergoing profound structural changes, with valuation multiples showing a significant differentiation trend. According to PitchBook’s Q3 2025 Telecom Industry M&A Report, the median EV/EBITDA multiple for strategic transactions dropped from 6.8x in 2024 to 3.1x in 2025, reflecting investors’ cautious attitude towards the industry’s growth prospects [5]. This downward trend is closely related to changes in the interest rate environment, intensified competition, and the extended return cycle of 5G investments.

Looking at the valuation performance of major European telecom operators, the industry shows significant regional differences. J.P. Morgan upgraded its rating on the European telecom industry from “Cautious” to “Neutral” in its latest research report, believing that a wave of industry consolidation is imminent and there is considerable room for valuation recovery [6]. Specifically:

• Deutsche Telekom
  : 12x expected price-to-earnings ratio in 2026, benefiting from strong performance in the US market and expansion of German broadband services [6]
• KPN
  : Rated “Neutral”, with a target price of €4.6, corresponding to approximately 15% upside potential [6]
• Tele2
  : Rated “Overweight”, with an expected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.3% in EBITDA from 2025 to 2027 [6]
• Proximus
  : Rated “Overweight”, with an expected long-term free cash flow yield of 30% [6]

As a telecom asset held by private equity firms, ODIDO’s valuation logic differs structurally from that of listed peers. According to data from C L F I Capital Research, the EV/EBITDA multiples of European telecom assets controlled by private equity firms were generally higher than those controlled by corporations in 2025 [7]. This premium stems from private equity investors’ ability to create value through operational efficiency improvements, strategic restructuring, and flexibility in exit timing.

According to PwC’s 2025 EMEA IPO Market Watch report, private equity-backed IPOs dominated large European IPOs in 2025, with 7 of the top 10 European IPOs having PE backgrounds [8]. This trend indicates that investors recognize the value of PE-driven asset quality and governance improvements through valuations. If ODIDO successfully lists, it will continue this model, realizing the value of private equity investments through an exit via the public market.

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ODIDO’s target valuation of €7 billion, relative to its adjusted EBITDA of €726 million, implies an EV/EBITDA multiple of approximately 9.6x. This level is significantly higher than the current median of European strategic transactions (3.1x), but consistent with the historical transaction range of private equity assets [5]. If ODIDO successfully lists on the Amsterdam Stock Exchange at this valuation, it will have the following impacts on European telecom industry valuations:

The Dutch telecom market has long been dominated by KPN (accounting for approximately 40% market share) and VodafoneZiggo (accounting for approximately 30% market share). The listing of ODIDO, the third-largest operator, will provide market participants with the first valuation reference for a “pure Dutch” listed telecom company [4]. Previously, analysts’ valuations of Dutch telecom assets mainly relied on the comparable company method, referring to valuation multiples of German, British, or Nordic operators, which involved the complexity of cross-border adjustments.

If ODIDO’s recognition as the fastest 5G network in the Netherlands by Opensignal [4] is rewarded with a valuation premium in the IPO, it will verify the positive contribution of differentiated 5G network quality to operator valuations. This signal has reference significance for other small and mid-sized European operators that are advancing 5G investments.

ODIDO’s IPO plan comes at a critical window when expectations for European telecom industry consolidation are rising. J.P. Morgan pointed out that the European telecom industry is facing a “wave of consolidation”, and operators’ demand to achieve scale effects and cost synergies through mergers and acquisitions is increasingly urgent [6]. If ODIDO successfully lists and gains market recognition, it will provide a valuation framework for the following consolidation scenarios:

• Tower Asset Transactions
  : Tele2’s Baltic tower asset transaction may contribute approximately 5% additional dividend yield to ODIDO [6]
• Regional Consolidation
  : Potential consolidations in high-competition markets such as Spain and Italy can refer to ODIDO’s valuation logic
• Cross-Border Integration
  : The valuation weight of fixed-mobile convergence (FMC) services will obtain clearer market pricing

The total IPO financing in the EMEA region reached $22.6 billion in 2025. Although lower than that in 2024, it showed characteristics of a “selective recovery” [8]. The phenomenon of large-scale IPOs being postponed to 2026 due to market volatility in the first half of 2025 is widespread [8]. ODIDO’s choice to advance its IPO at this time benefits from the recovery of market sentiment, but also faces investors’ prudent screening of high-quality IPOs.

From the perspective of capital flows, if ODIDO’s IPO is successful, it will have the following impacts on the European telecom sector:

1. Attracting Incremental Capital
   : As a defensive allocation, the telecom sector is attractive in an interest rate downcycle. ODIDO’s listing will provide a new allocation target for institutional investors
2. Enhancing Sector Liquidity
   : The European telecom sector has long been dominated by a few mega-cap stocks. The addition of a mid-sized telecom stock will enrich investors’ choices
3. ESG Valuation Weight
   : ODIDO’s 2040 net-zero emission commitment [4] aligns with ESG investment trends and may earn a green premium

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The Dutch telecom market presents a tripartite competitive landscape. ODIDO’s IPO will enable direct valuation comparisons among the three major operators:

Company	Market Position	Business Model	Valuation Characteristics
KPN	Largest Operator	Full-Service Operator	Mature stage, stable dividends
VodafoneZiggo	Second-Largest Operator	Convergence Service Provider	Joint venture structure, synergistic effects
ODIDO	Third-Largest Operator	Mobile-First with Fixed-Line Supplementary	Growth stage, PE exit

According to data from Mordor Intelligence, the size of the Dutch telecom market is expected to grow from $12.3 billion in 2025 to $14.97 billion in 2030, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.01% [4]. In terms of competitive landscape, KPN and ODIDO are basically on par in terms of network coverage quality, while VodafoneZiggo is slightly inferior [4]. If ODIDO lists at a valuation of €7 billion, relative to its revenue of €2.3 billion, it implies an EV/Revenue multiple of 3.0x, which is in line with the industry average.

Placing ODIDO in the broader context of the European telecom industry, its valuation reference significance is reflected in the following dimensions:

: Tele2 (ODIDO’s former Swedish shareholder) is listed on the Stockholm Stock Exchange with a market capitalization of approximately SEK 21 billion, and its stock price performed strongly in 2025 (up 50% before pulling back 12%) [6]. The historical relationship between Tele2 and ODIDO makes the two companies comparable in terms of business.

: Southern European operators such as Telefónica and Telecom Italia face higher competition intensity and lower valuation multiples. ODIDO’s successful listing will provide a valuation reference for consolidations in these markets.

: According to C L F I research, the EV/EBITDA multiples of European telecom operators are generally lower than those of their U.S. peers [7]. As an IPO case of a mid-sized European operator, if ODIDO can achieve a valuation level close to that of U.S. peers, it will be an important signal for the revaluation of European telecom assets.

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: ODIDO’s current net loss mainly stems from interest expenses on acquisition debt. Although postponing the IPO can buy time to reduce leverage [2], there is time pressure between private equity exit demands and debt optimization. If the interest rate environment is unfavorable or EBITDA growth falls short of expectations, valuations may come under pressure.

: The Dutch telecom market is highly saturated with intense price competition. Both KPN and VodafoneZiggo have strong network infrastructure advantages, and there is uncertainty whether ODIDO’s differentiated competition strategy can support a valuation premium.

: Changes in EU telecom spectrum auction rules, interconnection policies, and consumer protection regulations may affect the company’s profitability. The impact of 2025 spectrum transactions in Sweden and Norway on Telia and Tele2’s cash flows has attracted analysts’ attention [6].

: Telecom assets are highly sensitive to interest rate changes due to the industry’s high capital intensity and stable cash flows. The European Central Bank’s interest rate cut expectations in 2025 support ODIDO’s valuation, but uncertainty about the policy path may affect investor sentiment.

: As an open economy, the Netherlands is greatly affected by international trade and geopolitics. Although the market volatility triggered by U.S. tariff policies in 2025 has limited direct impact on ODIDO [2], the overall slowdown of the European economy may suppress the growth of demand for telecom services.

: The European IPO market is expected to see listings of multiple large enterprises in 2026, including the spin-off of Unilever’s ice cream business [2]. Whether ODIDO can gain sufficient attention in competitive capital allocation depends on overall market conditions and investor risk appetite.

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If ODIDO’s €1 billion IPO is successfully completed, it will affect European telecom operator valuations through the following paths:

: Establishing a valuation benchmark for the Dutch and surrounding markets, providing comparable targets for peers such as KPN and VodafoneZiggo. Changes in ODIDO’s valuation multiples will directly affect the valuation adjustments of peer companies.

: Verifying the feasibility of private equity exit models in the telecom industry, which may encourage more PE-held telecom assets to consider the IPO path, increasing market supply while expanding investor attention.

: Promoting rising expectations for European telecom industry consolidation, and consolidation targets with small valuation discounts may obtain premiums.

For investors focusing on the European telecom sector, ODIDO’s IPO provides the following strategic references:

1. Focus on the IPO Pricing Range
   : ODIDO’s final pricing will reflect the market’s comprehensive judgment on its growth potential and risks, and is an important valuation signal
2. Compare Valuation Changes Before and After Listing
   : By tracking ODIDO’s stock price performance after listing, verify the market’s true valuation preferences for European telecom assets
3. Evaluate Consolidation Opportunities
   : Pay attention to potential merger and acquisition activities initiated by ODIDO after listing, as consolidation expectations themselves are valuation catalysts

From a long-term perspective, the European telecom industry is at the intersection of mature 5G commercialization and the initiation of 6G R&D. As the operator of the fastest 5G network in the Netherlands [4], if ODIDO can continuously improve network quality and customer experience after the IPO, it is expected to transition from the “third-largest” to a “differentiated leader”. If this path is successful, it will provide a new valuation paradigm for mid-sized telecom operators in Europe and even globally—creating differentiated value through network quality, technological innovation, and ESG commitments, beyond scale competition.

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ODIDO’s planned €1 billion IPO in Amsterdam is one of the most high-profile listing cases in the European telecom industry in 2026. Its target valuation of €7 billion represents a significant premium over the current median EV/EBITDA multiple of 3.1x for European telecom strategic transactions, reflecting the value creation logic of private equity assets and the market’s preference for high-quality IPOs. If ODIDO successfully lists on the public market at this valuation, it will provide an important reference benchmark for European telecom operator valuations, strengthen industry consolidation expectations, and potentially open a window for the revaluation of mid-sized telecom assets.

However, the evolution of the interest rate environment, market conditions, and the company’s own financial performance will ultimately determine whether ODIDO can achieve its valuation target. For the European telecom industry, ODIDO’s IPO is not only a private equity exit event, but also a key litmus test of the market’s perception of the value of digital transformation and sustainable development in the telecom industry.

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[1] Bloomberg - “Dutch Mobile Network Odido Weighs IPO as Soon as January” (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-09/dutch-mobile-network-odido-said-to-eye-1-billion-ipo-kickoff-as-soon-as-january)

[2] DutchNews.nl - “Odido delays Amsterdam stock market debut until autumn” (https://www.dutchnews.nl/2025/06/odido-delays-amsterdam-stock-market-debut-until-autumn-fd/)

[3] NL Times - “Odido expected to go public in IPO on Euronext Amsterdam” (https://nltimes.nl/2024/11/23/odido-expected-go-public-ipo-euronext-amsterdam)

[4] Mordor Intelligence - “Netherlands Telecom MNO Market Size & Growth Trends, 2030” (https://www.mordorintelligence.com/industry-reports/netherlands-telecom-market)

[5] RL Hulett - “Telecommunications M&A Update Q3 2025” (https://rlhulett.com/app/uploads/2025/11/Telecommunications-MA-Update-Q3-2025.pdf)

[6] Investing.com - “J.P.Morgan Upgrades European Telecom Outlook as Consolidation Wave Looms” (https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/jpmorgan-upgrades-european-telecom-outlook-as-consolidation-wave-looms-93CH-4381647)

[7] C L F I Capital - “US vs Europe Telecom Valuation Multiples 2025” (https://clfi.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/4-US-vs-Europe-by-Sponsor-TTM-scaled.jpg)

[8] PwC - “IPO Watch EMEA 2025” (https://www.pwc.co.uk/services/audit/insights/ipo-watch-emea.html)