Targa Resources (TRGP) Investment Analysis: Path to UBS's $228 Price Target

Based on comprehensive market data and analysis, I will now provide a detailed assessment of the factors that could drive Targa Resources toward UBS’s $228 price target.

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Targa Resources is currently trading at

on the NYSE, representing approximately to UBS’s price target of $228 [0]. The stock has demonstrated exceptional long-term performance, delivering a remarkable and [0]. Despite this outstanding historical performance, TRGP remains attractively valued relative to both the S&P 500 and other midstream C-corporations [1].

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Targa Resources completed the acquisition of Stakeholder Midstream, LLC on January 6, 2026, with an effective date of January 1, 2026 [2]. This strategic acquisition expands the company’s midstream infrastructure portfolio across North America and represents a significant growth catalyst. The transaction was approved by the FTC in December 2025 [3], and analysts view this as a value-accretive move that enhances Targa’s scale and operational capabilities in key producing regions.

Targa’s strategic focus on the

positions the company favorably amid robust natural gas demand growth. The company’s Galena Park Marine Terminal in Houston is expected to experience a , potentially driven by supply dynamics related to U.S. policy shifts toward Venezuelan and Iranian sources [2]. This export volume expansion could materially boost revenue and cash flow.

Four new processing plants are scheduled to come online through 2026, providing additional capacity to capture growing natural gas production [1]. These expansion projects represent visible growth drivers that support UBS’s optimistic outlook.

A recent Seeking Alpha analysis identified Targa Resources as one of the

, along with Chevron [4]. Potential shifts in U.S. policy toward Venezuelan oil could alter global supply dynamics, benefiting North American midstream operators with established export infrastructure.

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The Energy sector has been the

today, gaining approximately [0]. However, midstream/MLP stocks experienced a more challenging 2025 after generating double-digit percentage total returns annually from 2021-2024 [5]. The sector is now positioned for improved fundamentals in 2026.

Factor	Impact on Valuation
LNG Export Capacity Expansion	Rising U.S. LNG exports drive volume growth for midstream infrastructure
Data Center Power Demand	Growing electricity needs from AI/data centers boost natural gas demand
Underinvestment in Supply	Limited new pipeline capacity supports higher utilization and pricing
Dividend Growth	Midstream companies expected to continue mid-single-digit dividend increases
Lower Interest Rate Environment	Improves MLP financing costs and enhances yield attractiveness

According to ETF Trends, midstream companies are expected to

while generating free cash flow [5]. Targa Resources, along with MPLX, Plains All American, and Cheniere Energy, has guided to compared to peers [5].

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Metric	Value	Assessment
ROE (Return on Equity)	63.85%	Exceptional
Net Profit Margin	9.44%	Solid
Operating Margin	18.47%	Healthy
P/E Ratio	24.18x	Reasonable for growth company
EV/OCF	14.93x	Attractive relative to growth

The company’s ROE of 63.85% significantly exceeds industry averages, demonstrating efficient capital allocation [0]. Targa’s P/E ratio of 24.18x is considered reasonable given its growth trajectory and sector-leading returns.

Analysts project robust earnings growth through 2027:

Year	EPS Estimate	Year-over-Year Growth
2026 (FY)	$9.83	+48.74% projected
2027	$11.30	+15%
2028	$12.28	+9%
2029	$13.55	+10%

These projections imply a

, which would represent a significant discount to current levels if the stock price remains stagnant [6].

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The analyst consensus for Targa Resources remains

:

Rating	Count	Percentage
Strong Buy	1	3.0%
Buy	27	81.8%
Hold	5	15.2%
Sell	0	0%

Firm	Rating	Target Price
UBS	Buy	$228 (Highest)
Mizuho	Buy	$218
RBC Capital	Outperform	$205
J.P. Morgan	Buy	$209
Barclays	Buy	$195-206
BofA Securities	Buy	$182
TD Cowen	Hold	$192

UBS’s $228 target represents the

($199-$228), requiring the company to exceed growth expectations and successfully integrate the Stakeholder Midstream acquisition [6].

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Risk Factor	Potential Impact
Crude Oil Price Weakness	Muted oil prices may limit production growth and volumetric throughput
Integration Risk	$1.25B acquisition requires successful integration and synergies realization
Natural Gas Price Volatility	Near-term prices depend heavily on winter weather patterns
Interest Rate Sensitivity	Higher rates increase financing costs for capital-intensive projects
Insider Selling	Recent insider transaction on Dec 5, 2025 (2,750 shares at $181.21) [7]

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Achieving UBS’s $228 price target would require Targa Resources to successfully execute on several fronts:

1. Successfully integrate
   the $1.25 billion Stakeholder Midstream acquisition and realize projected synergies

2. Capitalize on natural gas demand growth
   from LNG exports, data center power generation, and industrial demand

3. Achieve projected EBITDA growth
   through new processing plant startups and expanded export volumes

4. Maintain disciplined capital allocation
   to support dividend growth and potential share repurchases

5. Benefit from favorable sector tailwinds
   including lower interest rates and improving midstream sentiment

The

appears achievable given the company’s visible growth pipeline, strong balance sheet, and sector-leading returns. However, execution risk and broader energy market conditions will be critical determinants of whether the stock reaches this valuation level.

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[0]金灵API市场数据 - Targa Resources实时报价与公司概况 (https://gilin-data.oss-cn-beijing.aliyuncs.com)

[1]Seeking Alpha - “Targa Resources: The Growth Story Isn’t Over” (https://seekingalpha.com/article/4822767-targa-resources-growth-story-isnt-over)

[2]Benzinga - “Targa Resources Corp. Completes Acquisition of Stakeholder Midstream” (https://www.benzinga.com/pressreleases/26/01/g49739183)

[3]FTC - Early Termination Notice (https://www.ftc.gov/legal-library/browse/early-termination-notices/20260420)

[4]Seeking Alpha - “Top 2 Energy Bets On The Venezuela Pivot: Buy Chevron And Targa Resources” (https://seekingalpha.com/article/4857174-top-2-energy-bets-on-the-venezuela-pivot)

[5]ETF Trends - “2026 Midstream/MLPs: Company-Level Tailwinds Amid Macro Clouds” (https://www.etftrends.com/energy-infrastructure-content-hub/2026-midstream-mlps-company-level-tailwinds-amid-macro-clouds)

[6]Business Insider - Targa Resources Stock Quote and Earnings Estimates (https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/trgp-stock)

[7]SEC.gov - Form 4 Statement of Changes in Beneficial Ownership (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1389170/000119312525312815/0001193125-25-312815-index.htm)