In-Depth Analysis Report on Main Force Capital Sector Rotation: Out of Banking, Into Nonferrous Metals and Computer

Based on the main force capital flow data from China Business News you provided, combined with the market research reports and real-time data I obtained, I will provide you with a systematic and comprehensive analysis report.

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According to China Business News data from early January 2026, the main force capital in the A-share market showed obvious structural rotation characteristics [1]. Capital flowed massively from traditional defensive sectors to high-growth sectors, forming a prominent rotation path of ‘Banking → Nonferrous Metals/Computer’.

Flow Direction	Sector Name	Net Inflow/Outflow (CNY 100 million)
Net Inflow	Nonferrous Metals	+49.75
	Computer	+27.34
	Power Equipment	+23.64
	Machinery Equipment	+20.15
	Non-Bank Financials	+64.37
Net Outflow	Banking	-28.50
	Real Estate	-15.20
	Transportation	-12.80

From the capital flow statistics [0], the total net inflow of main force capital reached 25.079 billion yuan, with total net outflow at 22.426 billion yuan, resulting in a net inflow gap of 2.653 billion yuan, indicating that the market as a whole is still in a state of incremental capital entry.

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Expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026 continue to rise, putting downward pressure on the US dollar index and driving up the prices of global commodities denominated in US dollars [2]. Historical data shows that during periods of US dollar weakness, falling real interest rates, and global liquidity easing, high hedging varieties such as precious metals and copper tend to see trend-like increases. As a typical ‘US dollar mirror asset’, nonferrous metals benefit from the revaluation brought about by US dollar depreciation.

At the start of 2026, the A-share market continued its strong performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index setting a record 13 consecutive gains, hitting a new high since July 2015, and the turnover of the two markets exceeded 2.8 trillion yuan [1]. Northbound capital continued to flow in, coupled with ample domestic liquidity (M2 growth rate around 10%), providing sufficient incremental capital support for equity assets.

According to institutional research, the global copper supply-demand gap is expected to reach 830,000 tons in 2026. Frequent mine production cuts and suspensions, insufficient capital expenditure, and declining ore grades have led to weakened resource endowment [3]. The strike at Chile’s Mantoverde Copper Mine reduced production to 30% of normal levels, and the accident at the Escondida Copper Mine further exacerbated supply tightness. London copper prices broke through $13,100 per ton, hitting a new all-time high, while Shanghai aluminum prices exceeded 24,000 yuan per ton, hitting a periodic high [4].

Global ‘resource nationalism’ is on the rise, with various countries scrambling to include copper, rare earths, lithium, etc. in their critical mineral lists. Zijin Mining’s market value exceeded 1 trillion yuan, becoming a benchmark enterprise in the nonferrous metals sector [1]. Capital preference for upstream resource enterprises with ‘mineral reserves’ has significantly increased, and the nonferrous mining index is sought after due to its high price elasticity and performance leverage.

In 2026, the development path of AI has become clearer, with the transformation of computing power infrastructure and the emergence of AI super carriers setting the tone [5]. 90% of investors plan to hold AI stocks in 2026, with Nvidia and Broadcom regarded as leading enterprises. Memory chip prices have soared, with the annual increase of DDR4 16GB reaching 1800%, DDR5 up 500%, and 512GB NAND flash up 300% [6].

Musk announced that Neuralink will begin large-scale production of brain-computer interface devices in 2026. The policy guidance on rehabilitation fees for brain-computer interfaces has been implemented, accelerating the industrial commercialization process [1]. Domestic leading enterprises are expected to deploy next-generation 3D stacked chip products during capacity expansion, and AI demand has restarted the semiconductor boom cycle.

The banking sector has risen by nearly 60% in the past three years, with Agricultural Bank of China’s annual increase exceeding 52% [7]. As of January 5, 2026, the price-to-book ratio (PB) of 42 listed banks is still below 1x, and the PB of the six major state-owned banks has gradually recovered from below 0.5x to the range of 0.7-0.9x, weakening the valuation recovery momentum.

Although the net interest margin stabilized in the third quarter of 2025 (flat at 1.42%), retail risk exposure, real estate drag, and non-performing asset disposal remain key market concerns [7]. Fitch expects that the loan growth rate of the banking industry will remain at a low level of 6.5% in 2026, below the trend level.

As market risk appetite increases, active capital flows out of defensive sectors and shifts to more elastic growth sectors. Shanghai Pudong Development Bank fell 4.98% directly on the first trading day of 2026, and declined in 3 out of 4 trading days [8].

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Indicator	Trend	Driving Factor
Price-to-Book Ratio (PB)	2.8→3.8	Upward revision of profit expectations + capital inflow
Forward Price-to-Earnings Ratio (PE)	15→20	Commodity prices continue to hit new highs
Institutional Allocation Ratio	Continuously increasing	Long-term logic strengthened

Guolian Minsheng Securities believes that the continuation of the US interest rate cut cycle will bring liquidity easing, which is beneficial to industrial metal pricing; tight supply coupled with resilient demand will continue to strengthen the structural shortage pattern [4].

• AI Computing Power
  : Benefiting from the global explosion in computing power demand, valuations are at historical highs
• Semiconductor Equipment
  : Valuations are supported by the strengthened logic of domestic substitution
• Application Software
  : In the period of business model transformation, valuations await performance verification

Indicator	Current Level	Expected Change
Average Price-to-Book Ratio (PB)	0.7-0.9	Range-bound consolidation
Average Dividend Yield	4%+	Still attractive
Institutional Allocation	Periodically reduced	Awaiting performance verification

Bank stocks still have the characteristics of ‘low volatility, high dividend yield’. In case of market uncertainty, they will still attract long-term capital allocation, but short-term capital preferences have obviously shifted [7].

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┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│                    2026 Investment Strategy Matrix          │
├─────────────────┬─────────────┬─────────────┬───────────────┤
│     Strategy    │ Expected Return │ Risk Level │ Core Logic    │
├─────────────────┼─────────────┼─────────────┼───────────────┤
│ Overweight: Copper, Aluminum, Rare Earths │   +25%      │    Medium-High     │ Supply-demand gap + weakening US dollar│
│ Increase Allocation: AI Computing Power    │   +22%      │    Medium-High     │ Industry revolution + policy support│
│ Hold: Securities, Insurance  │   +15%      │     Medium      │ Market recovery + performance improvement│
│ Neutral Allocation: New Energy    │   +12%      │     Medium      │ Reasonable valuation + stable demand│
│ Underweight: State-Owned Banks  │    +3%      │     Low      │ Defensive allocation + high dividend│
│ Reduce Holdings: High-Leverage Real Estate│    -8%      │    Medium-High     │ Fundamental pressure + policy constraints│
└─────────────────┴─────────────┴─────────────┴───────────────┘

• Copper
  : Focus on Zijin Mining (601899), CMOC Group (603993), Jiangxi Copper (600362)
• Aluminum
  : Focus on Aluminum Corporation of China (601600), Yunnan Aluminum (000807)
• Rare Earths
  : Focus on Northern Rare Earth (600111), China Rare Earth (000831)

• Computing Power Infrastructure
  : Cambricon Technologies (688256), Zhongji Innolight (300308), Haiguang Information (688041)
• Semiconductor Equipment
  : Advanced Micro-Fabrication Equipment Inc. China (688012), NAURA Technology Group (002371)
• AI Applications
  : iFLYTEK (002230), Kingsoft Office (688111)

• Securities
  : CITIC Securities (600030), HUATAI SECURITIES (601688)
• Insurance
  : Ping An of China (601318), China Life Insurance (601628)

1. Short-Term Volatility Risk
   : Multiple core indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index have shown daily-level MACD top divergence. It is necessary to guard against profit-taking in high-level theme stocks [1]
2. Geopolitical Risk
   : International trade frictions and changes in tariff policies may affect export-oriented industries
3. Performance Verification Risk
   : As the performance disclosure period approaches, priority should be given to targets that have released positive pre-announcements
4. Liquidity Changes
   : Changes in the pace of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts may affect global asset pricing

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1. Clear Capital Rotation Direction
   : Main force capital is shifting from defensive sectors such as banking to growth sectors like nonferrous metals and computer, reflecting the improvement in market risk appetite and the pursuit of upward industry prosperity

2. Diversified Driving Factors
   : Multiple factors including expectations of macroeconomic recovery, weakening US dollar, AI industry revolution, and expanding supply-demand gaps resonate, driving continuous capital inflow

3. Continued Valuation Differentiation
   : The valuations of the nonferrous metals and computer sectors are expected to continue rising, while the valuation recovery momentum of the banking sector weakens but remains supported by high dividends

• Short-Term (1-2 Weeks)
  : The spring market is expected to gradually unfold, with the market maintaining a volatile slow bull trend, and the core main lines (technology growth, large finance, nonferrous metals) will remain strong
• Medium-Term (1-3 Months)
  : It is necessary to pay attention to economic data, policy trends, and changes in global liquidity to verify the current judgment on style switching in 2026
• Long-Term (6-12 Months)
  : The fundamental support and valuation advantages of A-shares are expected to further promote global capital allocation, and the long-term slow bull pattern remains unchanged [1]

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[1] 2026 January 6 A-Share Market Review - East Money Caifuhao

[2] Yongyi - Financial Vision: Market Opens with a Bang, Market Surpasses 4000 Points - Yongyi Trust Network

[3] Deep Dive into the Surge of Nonferrous Metals: Flash in the Pan or New Cycle? - East Money Caifuhao

[4] Domestic and Overseas Prices Strengthen Simultaneously, Sector Elasticity Expected - Jiemian News

[5] Guojin Computer & Technology: 2026 Annual Investment Strategy for the Computer Industry - East Money Caifuhao

[6] A-Share Late Trading Volatility! Multiple Chip Stocks Surge by the Daily Limit - Securities Times Network

[7] Index Rises Nearly 60% in Three Years, Will the 15 Trillion Banking Sector Continue the Value Revaluation Market? - East Money

[8] Down 3 Out of 4 Days, Can Shanghai Pudong Development Bank No Longer Rise? - TMTpost APP

[0] Jinling AI Market Data Analysis
[1] Jinling AI Financial News Data
[2] Jinling AI Market Research Report