Allstate Corp (ALL) Insider Trading Analysis: Assessment of the Impact of Gupta's Stock Sales

Based on comprehensive data analysis, I now present to you a complete investment analysis report.

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Allstate Corporation (NYSE: ALL) President Suren Gupta conducted a series of share sale transactions between November 2025 and January 2026 [1][2]:

Transaction Date	Options Exercised (Shares)	Exercise Price	Sale Price	Transaction Amount
2025-11-26	750	$62.32	$215.01	~$161,000
2025-11-28	3,786	$62.32	$215.13	~$815,000
2026-01-07	19,593	$62.32	~$210.00	~$4,115,000

• All transactions were executed in accordance with the
  Rule 10b5-1 Trading Plan
  (pre-established on June 9, 2025) [1][2]
• Gupta currently directly holds
  100,646 shares
  of ALL stock (valued at approximately $21.2 million)
• Additionally, he holds 1,335 shares via a 401(k) plan and 7 shares through VVG Holdings LLC

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Insider share sales are typically viewed as a negative signal, but

:

• Prearranged Nature
  : 10b5-1 plans must be pre-established when the stock price differs from the current price, essentially to avoid suspicion of insider trading
• Compliance Marker
  : Utilizing a 10b5-1 plan indicates executives are adhering to SEC regulations, with no intent to trade using non-public information
• Time Difference Logic
  : The plan was established in June 2025 (when the stock price was approximately $200), with limited correlation to the current $211 price

Indicator	Interpretation
Continued Shareholding	After the sale, Gupta still holds shares valued at $21.2 million, demonstrating ongoing confidence in the company
Profit from Option Exercise	Selling shares at $210+ with an exercise price of $62.32, yielding over $150 per share, constitutes reasonable financial planning
Limited Sale Proportion	This sale accounts for approximately 16.3% of his direct holdings, representing a normal adjustment of shareholdings
Planned Sale	Not a panic sell-off, but executed per a pre-determined plan

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Valuation Metric	Value	Industry Comparison
P/E Ratio (TTM)	6.85x	Significantly below industry average (~15x)
P/B Ratio	2.02x	Reasonable level
Market Cap	$55.83B	Large insurance company
ROE	35.27%	Excellent

Scenario	Intrinsic Value	Relative to Current Price
Conservative Scenario	$217.99	+3.3%
Base Scenario	$405.56	+92.1%
Optimistic Scenario	$1,004.06	+375.6%
Probability-Weighted	$542.54	+157.0%

DCF analysis indicates that the current stock price of $211.10 may be subject to a significant

[0].

• Consensus Rating
  : Buy
• Target Price
  : $226.00 (implying 7.1% upside potential)
• Target Range
  : $198.00 - $254.00
• Recent Developments
  : Most institutions have maintained or upgraded their ratings [0]

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Indicator	Value	Signal Interpretation
MACD	Golden Cross	Short-term bullish
KDJ	K:71.9, D:61.3, J:93.0	Bullish territory
RSI(14)	Normal range	No overbought/oversold condition
50-Day Moving Average	~$205	Stock price is above the moving average
200-Day Moving Average	~$188	Long-term uptrend
Beta	0.24	Low-volatility stock
Support Level	$207.60	Short-term technical support
Resistance Level	$212.89	Short-term technical resistance

: Sideways consolidation pattern, no clear directional signal [0]

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Metric	Q3 FY2025	Market Expectation	Beat Margin
EPS	$11.17	$7.67	+45.63%
Revenue	$17.06B	$15.67B	+8.86%

• Q2 FY2025: EPS $5.94, Revenue $16.62B
• Q1 FY2025: EPS $3.53, Revenue $16.46B
• Q4 FY2024: EPS $7.67, Revenue $16.51B

: The company has demonstrated a sustained momentum of profit improvement [0]

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1. ✅
   10b5-1 plan eliminates insider trading concerns
   — Transactions are prearranged, compliant operations
2. ✅
   Substantial executive shareholdings indicate confidence
   — Still holds shares valued at $21.2 million
3. ✅
   Sale constitutes profit-taking
   — Exercise price $62.32 vs. current $211, representing significant profit
4. ✅
   Low valuation provides a margin of safety
   — P/E ratio of 6.85x is significantly below historical and industry levels
5. ✅
   Strong fundamental support
   — Q3 results exceeded expectations by 45%

• ⚠️ Some sensitive investors may react negatively to any insider share sale
• ⚠️ Minor selling pressure may exist in the short term
• ⚠️ The stock price is near the 52-week high ($215.89), and some investors may choose to take profits

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Evaluation Dimension	Conclusion
Valuation Attractiveness	High (P/E ratio only 6.85x, DCF indicates 157% upside potential)
Insider Trading Signal	Neutral (Reduction via 10b5-1 plan, not a panic sell-off)
Fundamentals	Strong (Earnings exceeded expectations, excellent ROE)
Technicals	Stable (Sideways consolidation, clear support levels)
Comprehensive Rating	Buy/Hold

• Entry Range
  : $207-$210 (near the 50-day moving average support)
• Target Price
  : $226 (analyst consensus target)
• Stop-Loss Price
  : $195 (near the lower edge of the 52-week range)

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Suren Gupta’s $4.1 million stock sale

. Based on the following considerations:

1. All transactions were executed via a compliant 10b5-1 plan, eliminating concerns about insider trading
2. The executive still holds shares valued at over $21 million, demonstrating continued commitment
3. The sale only reflects personal financial planning, rather than a negative judgment of the company’s valuation
4. The current valuation is attractive (P/E ratio 6.85x), with solid fundamentals

For value investors, the current insider trading dynamics should not be a reason to sell; instead, they may present an opportunity to increase positions in the undervalued range.

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[1] SEC Form 4 Filing - Allstate Corp Insider Trading Activity (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/899051/000089905126000004/0000899051-26-000004-index.htm)

[2] StockTitan - Allstate (ALL) President Exercises Options, Sells Shares (https://www.stocktitan.net/sec-filings/ALL/form-4-allstate-corp-insider-trading-activity-31c102af28f7.html)

[3] SEC Form 144 - Report of Proposed Sale of Securities (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/899051/000195917326000186/0001959173-26-000186-index.htm)

[0] Gilin AI Financial Database (Real-time Market Data, Technical Analysis, DCF Valuation Model)