Analysis of the Inherent Contradiction Between Valuation Logic of Hong Kong-listed AI Companies and Retail Investors' High-Multiple Over-Subscription

Based on collected data and analysis, I will now provide an in-depth interpretation of the inherent relationship between the valuation logic of AI companies in the Hong Kong stock market and retail investors’ high-multiple over-subscription.

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Recently, the Hong Kong stock market has seen an unprecedented over-subscription frenzy for AI companies’ IPOs.

(Xiyu Technology) closed its subscription period on January 6, 2026. Its public offering tranche received approximately over-subscription, and the international offering was closed early with 36.76 times over-subscription. The fundraising amount reached HK$4.8 billion, and the company will list on January 9 [1][2].

Prior to this, thousand-fold over-subscriptions have consecutively appeared in Hong Kong’s AI and computing power sector:

• Biren Technology
  (end of 2025): Public offering over-subscribed
  2,348 times
• Zhipu AI
  (end of 2025): Public offering over-subscribed
  1,164 times
• Tianshu Zhixin
  (listed on January 8, 2026): Public offering over-subscribed
  approximately 2,000 times

This series of data indicates that the Hong Kong stock market is in an extremely bullish state towards the AI track.

From a macro valuation perspective, Hong Kong’s technology assets are not overvalued. As of December 16, 2025, the

, which is in the historical percentile below 40% over the past 5 years, significantly lower than major technology indices such as the Nasdaq and STAR 50 [3][4].

This mismatched attribute of

theoretically provides sufficient safety margins for medium- to long-term capital.

However, when focusing on specific AI companies, their fundamentals show a fragile state that stands in stark contrast to the frenzy of over-subscription:

Company	MiniMax	Zhipu AI	Biren Technology
2024 Net Loss	US$465 million	RMB2.2 billion	Cumulative over RMB6.3 billion
2025 First Three Quarters Loss	US$512 million	RMB1.752 billion	Sustained Losses
Gross Margin	23.3%	N/A	31.9% (H1 2025)
Commercialization Progress	Early Stage	Early Stage	Early Stage
Intellectual Property Risk	Facing lawsuits from Disney, etc.	No major disputes	N/A

: These AI companies are generally in a stage of , making it difficult to achieve stable profitability in the short term [2][5].

The new HKEX IPO rules that took effect in August 2025 introduced “Mechanism B”, which allows issuers to independently select a public offering ratio of 10%-60% without a clawback mechanism, leading to further scarcity in the supply of public offering shares [6][7]. Meanwhile:

• FINI System Reform
  shortens the new share subscription cycle, reducing capital occupation costs
• Securities brokers offer
  margin financing services with high leverage and low interest rates
  , with maximum leverage up to 10x
• Retail investors participate in IPO subscriptions via leverage, and the mentality of “small bets for big gains” is prevalent

The frenzy of retail over-subscription reflects the following at a deeper level:

1. Scarcity-seeking Mentality
   : The public offering accounts for only 10%-20%, so retail investors have a strong mentality of “whoever gets it earns it”
2. Fear of Missing Out (FOMO)
   : Institutional investors are also actively participating, further strengthening the “follow-the-crowd effect” among retail investors
3. Inertia of Concept Speculation
   : As a long-term strategic track, AI is defaulted by the market as “only rising, not falling”
4. Memory of Historical “Profit-making Effect”
   : The demonstration effect brought by the sharp listing gains of previous A+H new stocks (such as CATL, Hengrui Medicine)

: There is a significant structural contradiction, but this contradiction is a phase-specific manifestation of the Hong Kong stock market, rather than a systemic paradox.

From the

, the reform of the Hong Kong IPO pricing mechanism has given institutions greater say in the inquiry stage, which helps to achieve more reasonable valuation pricing [7]. The 36.76 times over-subscription in the international offering (vs. 1,837 times for retail investors) indicates that institutions are relatively rational.

However, the

is completely different: high-multiple over-subscription reflects the pursuit of “hot targets”, rather than in-depth research on the company’s intrinsic value. This behavior is closer to rather than value investment.

The valuation logic of AI companies should be based on

. Analysts point out that 2026 will be a key verification period for AI’s and , and the gradual improvement of model capabilities and the maturity of multimodal technology will be the core anchors for valuation reconstruction [8].

However, retail investors’ high-multiple over-subscription is more driven by a

: they expect to “sell quickly after a sharp listing gain” rather than hold long-term to share the company’s growth. This maturity mismatch exacerbates the of the market.

Judging from the 23 times PE of the Hang Seng Technology Index, Hong Kong’s technology assets as a whole have a safety margin. However, when it comes to AI new stocks,

(MiniMax is priced at HK$165 per share), and the emotional premium has been pre-overdrawn [2].

Historical data shows that the break rate of Hong Kong new stocks in 2025 was about 29%, but “roller coaster” trends frequently occur after the sharp listing gains of “hot targets”. For example, Gold Leaf International Group closed up 330% on its first trading day, then fell by as much as 74.88% in the following trading days [7].

1. Unvalidated Business Model
   : Most AI companies have not yet found a sustainable profit path
2. Valuation Bubble Risk
   : Thousand-fold over-subscription drives up offering prices, overdrafting future growth space
3. Leverage Amplification Effect
   : Retail investors use 10x leverage to subscribe to new stocks; if the price falls on the listing day, they will face significant losses
4. Liquidity Volatility
   : The average daily trading volume of the Hong Kong stock market is limited, and concentrated selling by a large number of retail investors may trigger a stampede
5. Intellectual Property Litigation Risk
   : MiniMax is facing lawsuits from Disney and others; in the worst case, it may need to pay approximately RMB500 million in compensation [5]

Recommendations for different types of investors are as follows:

Investor Type	Strategy Recommendations
Retail Investors	Avoid blind chasing of highs; strictly control positions when using leverage; focus on company fundamentals rather than mere subscription multiples
Institutional Investors	Focus on enterprises with core technological barriers and clear monetization paths; pay attention to the progress of commercialization implementation
Long-Term Investors	May build positions in batches after valuation corrections; focus on companies that have achieved revenue growth and gross margin improvement

A market consensus is forming:

[2].

There is indeed

between the valuation logic of AI companies in the Hong Kong stock market and retail investors’ high-multiple over-subscription, but this contradiction is not irreconcilable. The key points are:

1. Short Term
   : Retail investors’ high-multiple over-subscription more reflects market sentiment and institutional arbitrage opportunities, with limited correlation to the company’s intrinsic value
2. Long Term
   : As the core track of the “productivity revolution”, AI has real industrial logic support, but it takes time to verify the feasibility of commercialization
3. Mechanism Level
   : The new HKEX IPO rules are reshaping the market ecosystem, making pricing more market-oriented and allocation more institutionalized

: The current high-multiple over-subscription by retail investors is an in a specific phase of the Hong Kong stock market, deviating from the rational valuation framework. However, as more AI enterprises enter the capital market and the industry competition pattern gradually becomes clear, the valuation system will gradually return to fundamentals. Investors should be alert to short-term speculative risks and focus on targets with real technological barriers and commercialization capabilities.

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[1] Caixin - “MiniMax’s Hong Kong Public Offering Oversubscribed 1,848 Times; International Offering Closed Early” (https://finance.caixin.com/2026-01-06/102400845.html)
[2] Securities Times - “Frenzy of Thousand-Fold Over-Subscription for AI New Stocks” (https://www.stcn.com/article/detail/3577433.html)
[3] Jiemian News - “Navigating Volatility, Reshaping Growth: Valuation Reassessment of Hong Kong-listed Tech amid Liquidity Recovery and AI Industry Deepening” (https://www.jiemian.com/article/13784710.html)
[4] Eastmoney - “Reshaping Growth: Valuation Reassessment of Hong Kong-listed Tech amid Liquidity Recovery and AI Industry Deepening” (https://finance.eastmoney.com/a/202512193596726161.html)
[5] Sina Finance - “The Battle for the First Hong Kong-listed AI Large Model Stock: Track Competition Between Zhipu AI and MiniMax” (https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/t/2026-01-05/doc-inhffmxu6849046.shtml)
[6] Securities Times - “Mechanism A or Mechanism B? The Logic of Hong Kong New Stock Subscription is Renewed” (https://stcn.com/article/detail/3470760.html)
[7] 21st Century Business Herald - “HKEX’s New IPO Rules Take Effect: Is the Era of Retail New Stock Subscription Over?” (https://www.21jingji.com/article/20250815/herald/51b6a729c6abc18e3c5641e2b8217c73.html)
[8] Securities Times - “Is There a Bubble in AI? The Key to 2026 AI Investment Lies in the ‘Iteration Capability’ and ‘Implementation Capability’ of AI Large Models” (https://www.stcn.com/article/detail/3562080.html)