2025 Global Gold ETF Inflows Hit All-Time High; Institutions Forecast Gold to Rise to $4,500-$5,000 in 2026

Based on the latest data released by the World Gold Council and research opinions from multiple authoritative institutions, I will provide you with a systematic and comprehensive analysis.

According to the report released by the World Gold Council on January 8, 2026, global gold ETFs achieved milestone inflows in 2025 [1][2]:

Indicator	2025 Data	YoY Change
Annual Inflows	$89 billion	All-time high
Assets Under Management (AUM)	$559 billion	More than doubled
Holdings	4,025 tonnes	25% increase from 3,224 tonnes in 2024
Annual Average Daily Trading Volume	$361 billion	All-time high
Annual Gold Price Increase	Over 64%	Strongest since 1979

Notably, the gold price set a new all-time high 53 times in 2025, with an annual increase of over 64%, far outperforming most global risk and fixed-income assets over the same period [3][4].

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2025 gold ETF inflows showed a marked

[5]:

1. North American market leads
   : $51 billion in inflows, accounting for 57% of the global total, marking the strongest performance on record
2. Asian market doubles
   : Asian investors, led by China, significantly increased their holdings
3. Sustained inflows in Europe
   : Investors in the UK and Switzerland continued to buy amid geopolitical risks

This structural change indicates that

, becoming an important force driving the gold price above $4,000 per ounce [5].

2025 inflows featured

:

• Although central bank gold purchases slowed, ETF inflows effectively filled this gap
• Global gold ETFs saw a net inflow of over 700 tonnes in 2025, reversing four consecutive years of net outflows [3]
• Retail investment demand surged, with ETF inflows hitting the highest level since 2020 [6]

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The core factors currently supporting gold’s safe-haven appeal include [7][8]:

• Escalating global trade disputes
• Persistent geopolitical tensions (Russia-Ukraine conflict, China-US relations, etc.)
• Rising U.S. debt levels
• Pressure on the U.S. dollar credit system

• The Federal Reserve has started an interest rate cut cycle, reducing the opportunity cost of holding gold [8]
• The U.S. dollar fell by approximately 9% in 2025, marking its worst annual performance since 2017
• A downward cycle in real interest rates is favorable for gold performance

The People’s Bank of China has increased its gold holdings for 14 consecutive months [6], and the proportion of global central bank gold reserves in total reserve assets has exceeded U.S. Treasuries for the first time since 1996 [7], a change described by Morgan Stanley as “a strong signal”.

The National Security Strategy report released by the U.S. White House in December 2025 undermined the foundation of U.S. dollar credit [5]. As U.S. credit continues to contract and weaken, the proportion of gold reserves held by central banks around the world is expected to continue to rise.

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Based on research from professional institutions [6][9]:

Allocation Recommendation	Ratio Range	Applicable Scenario
Conservative Allocation	3%-10%	Risk-averse investors
Balanced Allocation	5%-15%	Balanced investors
Aggressive Allocation	20%-30%	Investors with high risk tolerance

Michael Widmer, Head of Metals Research at Bank of America, pointed out that research shows allocating 20% of a portfolio to gold can effectively enhance stability, and in the current environment,

[6].

Tool Type	Applicable Investors	Advantages
Gold ETFs	Most investors	High liquidity, low threshold, low fees
Physical Gold	Long-term holders	Avoid credit risks
Gold Mining Stocks	High-risk preference investors	Leveraged returns
Gold Mutual Funds	Institutional investors	Professional management, risk diversification

• Phased position building
  : Given that volatility will be significantly higher than in 2025, regular fixed-amount investment is recommended [6]
• Buy on dips
  : Societe Generale recommends actively buying during price corrections [6]
• Long-term holding
  : Gold bull markets typically do not end due to price increases; wait for the fundamental drivers to fade

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Institution	2026 Forecast	Timeframe
JPMorgan Chase	$5,000 per ounce	Year-end
Morgan Stanley	$4,800 per ounce	Q4
Societe Generale	$5,000 per ounce	Year-end
Bank of America	$4,538 per ounce (average price)	Full year
Analyst Consensus	$4,610 per ounce	Year-end

The World Gold Council estimates that, based on current prices, the gold price is expected to rise by an additional

in 2026 [6].

1. Prolonged rate cut cycle
   : Fed rate cuts will reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold
2. Secondary inflation risk
   : The combination of tariffs and rate cuts may push up inflation, benefiting gold
3. Continued ETF inflows
   : Historically, European and American ETFs see inflows after rate cuts
4. De-dollarization trend
   : Global central banks will continue to strategically increase gold holdings

• Short-term corrections due to technical overbought conditions
• Possible slowdown in jewelry demand
• Monetary policy changes in major economies
• Increased market sentiment volatility

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1. Gold’s safe-haven appeal continues to strengthen
   : Record inflows into gold ETFs in 2025 demonstrate investors’ high recognition of gold as a safe-haven asset and portfolio hedging tool

2. Paradigm shift in investment logic
   : The driving logic of gold prices has shifted from “negative correlation with real interest rates” to dual drivers of “sovereign credit risk premium” and “fragmentation of the global monetary system” [6]

3. Structural bull market has a solid foundation
   : Global high debt, policy uncertainty, and continued de-dollarization trends highlight gold’s long-term allocation value

1. Strategic allocation
   : It is recommended to include gold as a core component of the investment portfolio, increasing the allocation ratio to the 10%-20% range

2. Tool selection
   : For most investors,
   gold ETFs
   are the best choice, combining liquidity and convenience

3. Risk management
   : Pay attention to short-term risks brought by rising volatility, and adopt a phased position building strategy

4. Long-term perspective
   : We are still in the early to mid-stage of the gold bull market, with “under-investment” rather than “overcrowding” as the main feature [6]

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[1] World Gold Council: 2025 Global Gold ETFs Hit All-Time Annual Inflows (https://finance.eastmoney.com/a/202601083613174235.html)

[2] World Gold Council: 2025 Global Gold ETFs Hit All-Time Annual Inflows (https://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2026-01-08/doc-inhfrkwf3524235.shtml)

[3] How High Will Gold Go in 2026? Market Sentiment Remains Bullish (https://news.china.com/socialgd/10000169/20260104/49133693.html)

[4] December caps off a record year (https://www.gold.org/goldhub/research/gold-etfs-holdings-and-flows/2026/01)

[5] 2026 Annual Strategy: Second Half of the Precious Metals Bull Market (https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202512171802445083_1.pdf)

[6] Central Bank Increases Gold Holdings for 14 Consecutive Months, Sending a Strong Signal (https://news.southcn.com/node_812903b83a/a2517b7995.shtml)

[7] Morgan Stanley Sees Gold Rising to $4,800, Citing Rate Cut Cycle and Global Risks to Extend Bull Market (https://xnews.jin10.com/details/205858)

[8] Analysts Chasing Gold’s Surge; Gold Expected to Break $5,000 in 2026 (https://zh-hans.bullionvault.com/黄金新闻/2026-预测-5000-黄金-121820251)

[9] Gold & Silver Outlook 2026 (https://sprott.com/insights/gold-silver-outlook-2026/)

[10] 3 gold investment types to consider for 2026, according to experts (https://www.cbsnews.com/news/gold-investment-types-to-consider-for-2026-according-to-experts/)