Analysis of the Impact of the Lifting of Minnesota's Mining Ban on the Investment Value of North American Mining Stocks

Based on the collected information, I will now provide you with a comprehensive, professional investment analysis report.

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In late 2024, shortly before leaving office, the Biden administration implemented a landmark mining protection policy in northern Minnesota. The ban covers approximately

south of the Boundary Waters Canoe Area Wilderness (BWCAW), aiming to protect one of America’s most iconic wilderness areas from potential environmental impacts of sulfide ore copper-nickel mining. Key measures of the ban include:

• Revocation of Twin Metals’ federal mineral rights leases
  : Twin Metals Minnesota, a subsidiary of Antofagasta, had its mineral rights in the area reclaimed by the government
• 20-year mining ban
  : Prohibition of any new hardrock mining activities on the vast federal land
• Environmental risk considerations
  : Sulfide ore mining may cause acid mine drainage and heavy metal leakage, threatening the lakes, rivers, and wild rice resources of the BWCAW [1][2]

Since taking office in January 2025, the Trump administration has repeatedly stated its intention to reverse this ban implemented by the Biden administration. Related policy shifts include:

• Signals of administrative action
  : The new administration has repeatedly hinted at plans to revoke the Biden-era administrative decisions, but the formal policies have not yet been fully implemented
• Legislative progress
  : Republican Congressman Pete Stauber from Minnesota’s 8th Congressional District introduced H.R. 978, the Superior National Forest Restoration Act, which will:
  • Restore Twin Metals’ mineral rights leases
  • Revoke the 20-year mining ban
  • Eliminate the possibility of relevant judicial review
• Political support foundation
  : The region has long had opposing voices between those supporting mining jobs and those opposing environmental risks [1][3]

Notably, similar policy reversals have occurred in other parts of the United States. In early 2025, Trump signed a bill to lift the coal leasing ban on federal land in eastern Montana that was imposed by the Biden administration in its final days, unlocking approximately 2 million acres of land for new coal mining leases [2]. This indicates that an overall shift in resource management policy may become a trend.

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: Twin Metals is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Chilean mining giant Antofagasta PLC, planning to build an underground copper-nickel mine near the shores of Birch Lake in Lake County, Minnesota. Located within the larger Duluth Complex ore deposit, the project will produce copper, nickel, cobalt, and platinum-group metals.

:

• Daily production capacity: 20,000 tons of ore/day
• Location: Within the BWCAW watershed
• Parent company: Antofagasta plc (London Stock Exchange ticker: ANTO) [1][4]

:

Indicator	Data
Current Price	3,542 pence (approx. $44.25)
52-Week Trading Range	1,279.50 - 3,549 pence
1-Year Gain	+117.41%
Market Capitalization	£34.92 billion
P/E Ratio	43.13x
Analyst Rating	Neutral (7 Buy, 4 Sell)
Average Target Price	2,728.57 pence

Antofagasta’s stock price has risen strongly recently. Driven by the surge in copper prices in early January 2026, the stock led the gains in the FTSE 100 Index, with a single-day increase of 5.3% [5][6].

: NewRange Copper Nickel is a joint venture between Glencore and Teck Resources, which succeeded the original PolyMet NorthMet project. NorthMet was one of the earliest proposed copper-nickel mine projects in Minnesota, initially put forward by PolyMet, later acquired by Glencore, and eventually formed the NewRange joint venture.

:

• Project scale: Open-pit mine with a daily production capacity of approximately 32,000 tons of copper
• Processing facilities: Planned to utilize the former LTV Steel site in Hoyt Lakes
• Parent companies: Glencore (Swiss commodities trading giant), Teck Resources (Canadian mining company, dual-listed on NYSE/TSX) [4][7]

:

Indicator	Data
Current Price	$48.75
Market Capitalization	$23.43 billion
52-Week Gain	+17.55%
P/E Ratio	26.30x
Analyst Rating	Buy (69.2% of analysts recommend Buy)
Target Price Range	$46.00 - $46.00

:

• Latest quarter (Q3 2025): EPS of $0.55, beating expectations by 41.03%
• Revenue: $2.43 billion, beating expectations by 23.21%
• Debt risk:
  Low Risk
  (financial analysis rating)
• Liquidity indicators: Current ratio 2.78, quick ratio 2.08 [0]

: Teck Resources’ recent C$5 billion merger with Anglo American has been approved by the Canadian government, which will further strengthen its position in the global copper market [8].

Talon Metals is the third company advancing a hardrock mining project in Minnesota, currently entering the environmental review stage. Although its scale and visibility are lower than the previous two projects, it is also expected to benefit from the policy shift.

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Copper is a core metal for the global energy transition, benefiting from growing demand for electric vehicles, renewable energy, and power grid infrastructure. According to the latest market analysis:

Institution Forecast	2026 Copper Price Forecast
Goldman Sachs	$5.17/lb
Citigroup	$5.90/lb (by Q2 2026)
Bank of America Merrill Lynch	$5.13/lb
TD Cowen	$5.25/lb

The market generally expects the copper market to enter a supply shortage phase in 2026 or the next few years, which provides strong price support for mining companies [9].

In November 2025, the U.S. Geological Survey officially added silver and 59 other metals and minerals to the critical minerals list, further strengthening the strategic importance of domestic critical mineral development. Investors should pay attention to the following trends:

• Supply chain security
  : Reducing reliance on single supply sources such as China
• Defense demand
  : Copper, nickel, and rare earth elements are critical to defense systems
• Electric vehicles
  : Each EV requires approximately 80 kg of copper, four times that of a traditional gasoline-powered vehicle
• Renewable energy
  : Wind and solar energy facilities have huge demand for copper [9][10]

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Indicator	Data
Current Price	$53.85
Market Capitalization	$77.33 billion
52-Week Gain	+35.52%
1-Month Gain	+19.68%
P/E Ratio	37.62x
Analyst Rating	Buy (62.5% recommend Buy)
Target Price Range	$46.00 - $68.00

:

• Latest quarter EPS: $0.50, beating expectations by 18.71%
• Revenue: $6.97 billion, beating expectations by 3.85%
• Operating profit margin: 26.30%
• Debt risk:
  Low Risk
• Financial stance: Conservative (high depreciation/capital expenditure ratio)

:

• Trend judgment:
  Sideways trading
  , no clear direction
• Key price levels: Support at $50.75, resistance at $54.72
• MACD indicator: Bullish (no death cross)
• KDJ indicator: Death cross signal (short-term bearish)
• Beta coefficient: 1.45 (more volatile than the broader market) [0]

:

• Copper concentrate: 28.8% ($1.97 billion)
• Copper cathode: 26.6% ($1.82 billion)
• Refined copper products: 19.4% ($1.33 billion)
• Gold: 17.6% ($1.2 billion)
• Molybdenum: 7.4% ($504 million)
• North American revenue share: 61.4% [0]

Indicator	Data
Current Price	$47.16
Market Capitalization	$81.19 billion
52-Week Gain	+197.70%
6-Month Gain	+127.47%
P/E Ratio	22.41x
Net Profit Margin	24.53%
Operating Profit Margin	43.33%

Barrick is also a significant copper producer, focusing on “Tier One” mine assets, with operations in 18 countries. The stock has performed extremely strongly recently, hitting a multi-year high [0].

Indicator	Data
Current Price	$61.15
Market Capitalization	$10.84 billion
52-Week Gain	+215.53%
6-Month Gain	+96.06%
Analyst Rating	Strong Buy (90.9% recommend Buy)
Target Price	$77.00 (+25.9% upside potential)

MP Materials is the only rare earth producer in the U.S., developing a complete domestic rare earth supply chain. Although it is still in a loss-making state (due to capacity expansion investments), it has recently received rating upgrades from multiple Wall Street institutions, with an optimistic market outlook [0][10].

Indicator	Data
Current Price	$84.02
Market Capitalization	$136.42 billion
P/E Ratio	13.26x (one of the lowest valuations in the industry)
Dividend Yield	4.38%
ROE	18.11%
Analyst Rating	Buy

Rio Tinto has one of the world’s highest-quality copper mine asset portfolios, including multiple projects in the U.S., making it one of the core choices for investors to position themselves in the copper market [0].

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Investment Theme	Benefit Logic	Beneficiary Companies
Lifting of Minnesota’s Mining Ban	Policy shift unlocks billions of dollars in mining investment	Twin Metals (Antofagasta), NewRange (Teck/Glencore)
Rising Copper Prices	Supply gap + growing demand	FCX, RIO, TECK, ANTO
Critical Minerals Security	Government strategic support + supply chain restructuring	MP, RIO, FCX
U.S. Localized Production	Policy dividends + reduced geopolitical risks	MP, FCX, PPTA

:

1. Freeport-McMoRan (FCX)
   - U.S. copper industry leader, benefiting from rising copper prices and domestic supply chain security themes. Technically in a sideways trading range with reasonable valuation [0]

2. Teck Resources (TECK)
   - Directly benefits from policy changes regarding Minnesota projects; will become the world’s second-largest copper producer after merging with Anglo. Analyst rating: “Buy”, with sound financial health [0]

:

3. MP Materials (MP)
   - Leader in rare earths, 90.9% of analysts recommend Buy, with a target price offering +25.9% upside potential from the current price [0]

4. Barrick Gold (B)
   - Has both gold and copper operations, with a nearly 200% gain over the past year and a clear upward trend [0]

:

5. Antofagasta (ANTO)
   - Parent company of Twin Metals, directly benefiting from policy changes. Has a 117% gain over the past year, but note that the short-term RSI has reached 77.13, entering the overbought zone [5][6]

Risk Type	Specific Description
Policy Risk	The specific timing and scope of the lifting of Minnesota’s mining ban remain uncertain
Environmental Litigation	Environmental organizations may file lawsuits to delay project progress
Copper Price Volatility	Copper prices may come under pressure if the global economy slows
Project Execution Risk	Twin Metals and NewRange projects have not yet obtained final approvals
Political Controversy	Twin Metals’ ties to the Trump family may trigger controversy [2]

According to the technical analysis of Freeport-McMoRan, the current stock price is at a critical level:

Support level: $50.75
Resistance level: $54.72
Current price: $53.88 (in the middle of the range)
Trend: Sideways trading, no clear directional signal

It is recommended that investors buy on dips when the price approaches the support level, or wait for a break above the resistance level before following up [0].

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The potential lifting of the mining ban in northern Minnesota marks a significant shift in U.S. mining policy, which may create notable investment opportunities for North American mining stocks. The core beneficiary logics include:

1. Direct beneficiaries
   : Twin Metals (Antofagasta) and NewRange Copper Nickel (Teck/Glencore) will gain opportunities to advance multi-billion-dollar projects

2. Overall industry benefits
   : U.S. critical mineral supply chain security strategy, expectations of rising copper prices, and growing demand for rare earth elements together form strong support for mining stocks

3. Stock selection recommendations
   : Focus on targets with attractive valuations, growth certainty, and policy beneficiary logics, such as Teck Resources, Freeport-McMoRan, and MP Materials

: Against the backdrop of global energy transition and geopolitical competition, critical mineral supply has become a national strategic issue. The shift in U.S. policy from “resource protection” to “resource development” may create a structural opportunity for mining investors that lasts for many years. It is recommended that investors gradually build positions on pullbacks to enjoy dual benefits from policy dividends and the upward commodity cycle.

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[1] MPR News - Minnesota DNR approves mining exploration plan near Boundary Waters (https://www.mprnews.org/story/2025/12/30/minnesota-dnr-approves-mining-exploration-plan-near-boundary-waters)

[2] Bozeman Daily Chronicle - Trump signs bill to unlock federal coal reserves in Montana (https://www.bozemandailychronicle.com/news/trump-signs-bill-to-unlock-federal-coal-reserves-in-montana/article_93493bbf-efea-5b6a-a652-9f40c54fc8bb.html)

[3] Sportsmen’s Boundary Waters - 2025 Boundary Waters Policy & Legislative Updates (https://sportsmenbwca.org/2025-boundary-waters-copper-nickel-mining-policy-updates/)

[4] Star Tribune - What you need to know about copper-nickel mines in Minnesota (https://www.startribune.com/what-you-need-to-know-about-copper-nickel-mines-in-minnesota/601377891)

[5] Proactive Investors - Antofagasta and Anglo buoyed by $13,000 copper landmark (https://www.proactiveinvestors.com/companies/news/1085126/antofagasta-and-anglo-buoyed-by-13-000-copper-landmark-1085126.html)

[6] Investing.com - Antofagasta PLC Stock Price (https://www.investing.com/equities/antofagasta)

[7] Kare11 - NewRange Copper Nickel project coverage (https://www.kare11.com)

[8] Teck Resources - Merger approval announcement (https://www.teck.com/news/news-releases/2025/teck-and-anglo-american-receive-government-of-canada-approval-for-merger-of-equals-under-investment-canada-act)

[9] Argus Media - Viewpoint: US copper faces uncertain 2026 outlook (https://www.argusmedia.com/ja/news-and-insights/latest-market-news/2771940-viewpoint-us-copper-faces-uncertain-2026-outlook)

[10] Investing News - Critical Minerals Take Center Stage (https://investingnews.com/critical-minerals-take-center-stage-as-u-s-accelerates-push-for-domestic-supply-security/)

[0] Jinling AI Financial Database - Company profiles, financial analysis, technical analysis data