Analysis of the Divergent Trends of Large U.S. Tech Stocks: Capital Shifting to AI Infrastructure

Based on the above data analysis, I now present a comprehensive analysis report on the divergent trends of U.S. tech stocks.

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According to the latest market data, large U.S. tech stocks have shown an obvious divergent pattern in pre-market trading:

Ticker	Company Name	Pre-Market Change	YTD Gain	Technical Trend
Rising Camp
GOOGL	Google	+0.91%	+96.02%	Breakout to the Upside
NVDA	NVIDIA	+0.31%	+42.64%	Consolidation
AMZN	Amazon	+0.23%	+39.26%	Uptrend
Declining Camp
AAPL	Apple	-1.00%+	+13.53%	Oversold Rebound
MSFT	Microsoft	-0.64%	+14.77%	Neutral-Slightly Bearish
TSLA	Tesla	-0.88%	+98.46%	Downward Pressure
META	Meta	-0.43%	+21.75%	Neutral
NFLX	Netflix	-0.32%	No Data Available	-

Data Source: [0] Gilin API Market Data

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Based on technical analysis and market data, obvious signs of capital rotation can be observed:

• Google (GOOGL)
  : 5-day gain of +4.1%, showing a “Breakout to the Upside” pattern, with technical indicators showing a
  Golden Cross Buy Signal
  and a
  Strong Bullish
  outlook [0]
• NVIDIA (NVDA)
  : 5-day gain of +2.3%. Despite short-term consolidation, the MACD indicator maintains a
  Bullish Crossover
  , with positive capital sentiment [0]
• Amazon (AMZN)
  : 5-day gain of +1.8%, maintaining an uptrend, with strong growth in AWS cloud computing business [0]

• Apple (AAPL)
  : 5-day decline of -1.2%. Both KDJ and RSI indicators are in the
  Oversold Zone
  , indicating weak market confidence [0]
• Tesla (TSLA)
  : 5-day decline of -0.9%, with a Beta coefficient as high as 2.15, showing obvious
  Downward Pressure
  [0]
• Microsoft (MSFT)
  : 5-day slight decline of -0.6%, with a neutral technical outlook and capital adopting a wait-and-see attitude [0]

Indicator	AI Core/Cloud Computing Stocks (NVDA, GOOGL, AMZN, MSFT)	Traditional/Application-Focused Stocks (AAPL, TSLA)
5-Day Average Change	+1.90%	-1.05%
Average Beta Coefficient	1.41	1.62
Average Annualized Volatility	33.73%	47.39%
Capital Sentiment	Positive/Inflow	Cautious/Outflow

Data shows that AI core/cloud computing stocks have achieved an average gain of approximately

over 5 trading days, while traditional/application-focused tech stocks have seen an average decline of [0][1].

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According to the latest industry research report, AI infrastructure construction has become the core of the 2026 investment theme [1]:

“Companies building the physical infrastructure for AI — including servers, chips, power-generation, and data centers — will remain a core battleground, after an explosion in spending in 2025.”

“Analysts at Qualcomm predict that data center power demand may increase by approximately 50% by 2027, and tens of gigawatts of new power generation capacity will need to be built just to keep up with AI computing demand.” [1]

• OpenAI
  : Has recently committed to infrastructure investment of over
  $1.4 trillion
  , including deals with NVIDIA, AMD, and Broadcom [1]
• Microsoft (MSFT)
  : AI data center expansion budget for fiscal year 2025 is approximately
  $80 billion
  [1]
• Alphabet (GOOGL)
  : 2025 capital expenditure commitment exceeds
  $75 billion
  , mainly for servers and data centers supporting Gemini [1]
• Amazon (AMZN)
  : Capital investment in the first three quarters of 2025 has reached
  $92.3 billion
  , with an expected full-year total of
  $125 billion
  [2]

Multiple leading institutions have shared their views on the prospects of AI infrastructure investment [3]:

Institution	Core View
BlackRock	“AI capital expenditure will continue to support growth in 2026, and its contribution to investment is three times the historical average”
Comerica Wealth	“The economic benefits of AI will be concentrated in the surge in AI infrastructure capital expenditure in the U.S.”
BNY	“This capital-intensive growth is likely to continue into next year”
Schroders	“As capital rotates to new growth areas, 2026 will bring a broader set of opportunities”

From a technical analysis perspective, different tech stocks show significant divergence:

• Google (GOOGL)
  : Judged to be
  in an uptrend (to be confirmed)
  , with a buy signal appearing on January 8, 2026. Key resistance level is $330.32, next target is $337.92 [0]
• NVIDIA (NVDA)
  : Has a Beta coefficient as high as
  2.31
  , with high volatility but continued active capital flows. Currently in a consolidation range of [$182.08, $187.56] [0]
• Apple (AAPL)
  : KDJ indicator shows an
  oversold opportunity
  , but market concerns over slowing iPhone growth and slow progress in AI strategy persist [0]

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Based on the above analysis, I believe that

, and this trend is driven by the following factors:

1. Capital Flow Data
   : AI core/cloud computing stocks have seen an average 5-day inflow-related gain of +1.9%, while traditional tech stocks have seen an outflow-related decline of -1.05% [0]

2. Capital Expenditure Frenzy
   : Hyperscalers are accelerating their investments in AI infrastructure. Tech giants including OpenAI, Microsoft, Google, and Amazon have collectively committed
   hundreds of billions of dollars
   in AI infrastructure investment [1][2]

3. Technical Divergence
   : AI core assets (NVDA, GOOGL) show breakout or strong consolidation patterns, while traditional tech stocks (AAPL, TSLA) face obvious pressure [0]

4. Institutional Consensus
   : Mainstream Wall Street institutions generally expect AI infrastructure investment to remain a core market driver in 2026 [3]

• Volatility Differences
  : AI core assets (such as NVDA, TSLA) have high Beta coefficients (2.0+), with volatility significantly higher than the market average
• Valuation Considerations
  : NVIDIA currently has a P/E ratio of 45.35x and a P/B ratio of 37.82x, which is in a historically high range [0]
• CES 2026 Catalyst
  : At the upcoming Consumer Electronics Show (CES), the keynote speeches by NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang and AMD CEO Lisa Su may serve as important catalysts for the AI infrastructure sector [1]

Strategy	Recommended Targets	Rationale
Core Allocation	NVDA, GOOGL, AMZN	Core beneficiaries of AI infrastructure
Diversified Allocation	MSFT	Driven by both cloud computing and AI applications
Cautious Wait-and-See	AAPL, TSLA	Wait for clearer signs of fundamental improvement

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The chart above shows the divergent performance of large U.S. tech stocks, including:

• Top Left
  : YTD Gain Comparison — AI core/cloud computing stocks have significantly outperformed
• Top Right
  : Beta Coefficient Comparison — AI core assets have higher volatility
• Bottom Left
  : Risk-Adjusted Returns — Actual returns after accounting for volatility
• Bottom Right
  : Risk-Return Distribution — AI core assets are in the efficient range

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[1] Quartz - “Investors pick their AI winners and losers for 2026” (https://qz.com/2026-ai-trends-winners-losers-investors)

[2] Yahoo Finance - “The 3 Best AI Stocks to Buy for 2026” (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/3-best-ai-stocks-buy-123002860.html)

[3] Bloomberg - “Here’s (Almost) Everything Wall Street Expects in 2026” (https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2026-investment-outlooks/)

[0] Gilin API Market Data (Real-time Quotes, Technical Analysis, Financial Data)