Analysis of ICE Enforcement Policy Changes and Investment Opportunities in Immigration-Related Industries

Based on the latest policy developments and market data, I will systematically analyze the impact of ICE enforcement policy changes on investment opportunities in immigration-related industries.

Recently, the fatal ICE shooting incident in Minneapolis has attracted widespread attention [1][2]. This incident reflects the tougher immigration enforcement policies implemented by the Trump administration since 2025. According to reports, the federal government deployed approximately 2,000 federal agents to Minneapolis, indicating a significant increase in enforcement intensity [3].

GEO Group (GEO) and CoreCivic (CXW)

Company	Post-Election Peak	End of 2025 Price	Drop
GEO Group	$36.46	~$16	-56%
CoreCivic	Similarly sharp decline	Same as above	Similarly sharp decline

1. Slow growth in detainee numbers:
   Despite the government increasing the immigration enforcement budget by $17 billion [4], actual detainee numbers failed to meet Wall Street expectations
2. High facility vacancy rates:
   • GEO Group has approximately 4,700 vacant beds [4]
   • CoreCivic has over 7,000 vacant beds [4]
3. Decline in border arrests:
   Arrests at the southern border were lower than expected

• ICE plans to detain over 100,000 people, with some analysts projecting that this number could reach 200,000 by the end of the current administration’s term [4]
• The government is recruiting thousands of new ICE and Border Patrol agents, offering a $50,000 signing bonus [4]
• The government has signed a $140 million contract for deportation aircraft

EB5 United achieved a significant milestone in 2025, with over 700 I-526E approvals [5].

• Rural project approval time: Average 5 months (historical average over 2 years)
• Urban high-unemployment area projects: Average 28.6 months
• Shortest approval record: 1 month [5]

The significant improvement in approval speed may stimulate growth in EB-5 investment demand, benefiting related service providers.

• Vialto Partners hired approximately 30 immigration legal professionals from Seyfarth Shaw LLP in October 2025 [6]
• Demand for immigration legal services continues to grow, particularly against the backdrop of increased policy uncertainty

• By 2026, RIAs are expected to manage 33% of advisor-managed assets in the U.S. [7]
• Assets grew 16.6% in 2025, with 41% of companies participating in M&A activities [7]
• Changes in immigration policy affect the labor market, which in turn impacts the wealth management industry

Sector	Growth Potential	Risk Level	Investment Recommendation
Private Detention Facilities	High	Medium-High	Long-term attention
Immigration Legal Services	Medium-High	Medium	Focus on expanding enterprises
EB-5 Services	Medium	Medium-High	Focus on enterprises with approval speed advantages
Compliance Technology	Medium-High	Medium	Key focus

1. Policy Risk:
   Immigration enforcement policies may change with the political environment
2. Execution Risk:
   The speed of infrastructure construction and personnel recruitment may fall short of expectations
3. Public Opinion Risk:
   Incidents similar to the Minneapolis shooting may trigger policy adjustments
4. Excessive Market Expectation Risk:
   Investors may be overly optimistic

• Adopt a cautious wait-and-see stance on private prison stocks, pending clearer operational data
• Monitor expansion dynamics of immigration legal services companies

• Accumulate positions in GEO Group and CoreCivic on dips
• Focus on consolidation opportunities in the RIA sector

• Immigration technology and compliance solution providers
• EB-5 regional centers and related financial services institutions

The tightening of ICE enforcement policies has indeed created new investment opportunities in immigration-related industries, but there is a significant gap between market expectations and actual execution. Investors should:

1. Distinguish between expectations and reality:
   The sharp volatility of private prison stocks reflects rapid shifts in market expectations
2. Focus on policy execution:
   The progress of government infrastructure development and personnel recruitment will be key indicators
3. Diversify investments:
   Spread investments across sectors such as detention facilities, legal services, and technology solutions

This analysis is based on the current policy environment and market data. Investment decisions should take into account individual risk tolerance, and it is recommended to consult a professional investment advisor.

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[1] The Fulcrum - “The Minneapolis Shooting Is Not an Aberration” (https://thefulcrum.us/governance-legislation/minneapolis-shooting-immigration-crackdown)

[2] City of Minneapolis - “City of Minneapolis response to federal actions” (https://www.minneapolismn.gov/government/programs-initiatives/city-federal-response/)

[3] CNN - “January 7, 2025 - ICE shooting in Minneapolis” (https://www.cnn.com/us/live-news/minnesota-fraud-state-reps-testify-01-07-26)

[4] The Marshall Project - “Trump’s Vow to Arrest Immigrants Lifted Private Prison Stocks. Then Why Did They Tank?” (https://www.themarshallproject.org/2026/01/06/trump-arrest-immigrants-private-prisons)

[5] Yahoo Finance - “EB5 United Surpasses 700+ I-526E Approvals” (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/eb5-united-surpasses-700-526e-171500135.html)

[6] Yahoo Finance - “Vialto Partners Expands Global Work Capabilities” (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/vialto-partners-expands-global-capabilities-133000683.html)

[7] AInvest - “The Rise of RIAs and Tax-Efficient Wealth Strategies in 2026” (https://www.ainvest.com/news/rise-rias-tax-efficient-wealth-strategies-2026-2601/)

[8] Vasquez Law Firm - “Key U.S. Immigration Law Updates for 2025” (https://www.vasquezlawnc.com/blog/key-u-s-immigration-law-updates-for-2025)