CATL Market Share Analysis Report: A Study on the Sustainability of the Rise of Second-Tier Manufacturers

According to the latest market data, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited (CATL) is facing challenges of sustained pressure on its market share. In Q3 2025, CATL’s installed capacity market share in China’s power battery market dropped to

, hitting a 5-year low[1]. This figure represents a further decline from the full-year 2024 level of 45.2%[1], and a significant pullback from the peak market share of around 50% recorded in 2020-2021.

Meanwhile, CATL’s global competitiveness remains solid. According to data from South Korea’s SNE Research, CATL’s global power battery installed capacity reached 339.3GWh in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 31.7%, and its market share rose to

, ranking first globally for 8 consecutive years. It is also the only battery manufacturer worldwide with a market share of over 30%, leading the second-place player by nearly 21 percentage points[2].

The core reason for CATL’s market share loss lies in the

of downstream automakers. To ensure supply stability, reduce procurement costs, and enhance bargaining power, vehicle manufacturers have successively introduced second-tier, third-tier suppliers, or even developed in-house batteries[1].

• Tesla
  : Procures lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries from CATL, nickel-cobalt-manganese (NCM) batteries from LG Energy Solution and Panasonic, while advancing the development of its in-house 4680 battery
• Volkswagen
  : In addition to procuring from CATL, it has invested in Gotion High-Tech and built its own battery factories in Europe
• Li Auto, XPeng, NIO
  : While cooperating with CATL, they have actively introduced second-tier players such as Sunwoda, CALB, and EVE Energy

This supply chain diversification trend has led to a decline in CATL’s customer concentration and reduced its reliance on single major customers.

As the world’s second-largest power battery manufacturer, BYD’s installed capacity reached 153.7GWh in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 37.5%, and its market share rose to

, an increase of 1.3 percentage points year-on-year[3]. More importantly, through its self-production and self-marketing vertical integration model, BYD’s new energy vehicle sales reached 4.2721 million units in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 41.26%[3]. Its internally consumed battery installed capacity continues to expand, creating direct competitive pressure on CATL.

The rapid rise in the market share of lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries has also impacted CATL. In H1 2025, LFP batteries accounted for

of total installed capacity, with a cumulative year-on-year growth of 73.0%; while the installed capacity share of NCM batteries dropped to 18.5%, with a cumulative year-on-year decline of 10.8%[4].

As a relatively mature technology route, LFP batteries have lower technical barriers, providing entry opportunities for second-tier players and driving the evolution of the competition pattern from head monopoly to decentralization.

Six Chinese companies made it to the top 10 global power battery list in 2024, with a combined market share of

, an increase of 3.5 percentage points from the full-year 2023 level of 63.5%[3]. Second-tier players have delivered particularly impressive performances:

Player	2024 Global Installed Capacity	Market Share	Year-on-Year Growth/Change
CALB	39.4GWh	4.4%	Risen 2 ranks
Gotion High-Tech	-	~5.2%	73.8% growth
EVE Energy	-	~3%	26.9% growth
Sunwoda	-	~2%	74.1% growth

CALB is the only company in the top 10 list that saw a ranking rise, moving from 6th place in 2023 to 4th place in 2024[3]. Players such as Gotion High-Tech and Sunwoda have achieved installed capacity growth rates of over 70%, significantly higher than the industry average.

• Narrowing Technology Gap
  : LFP battery technology is becoming standardized, and second-tier players have already gained competitiveness in basic products
• Cost Advantage
  : Second-tier players have established cost advantages in LFP batteries through economies of scale and process optimization
• Deeper Automaker Binding
  : With the deepening of cooperation, automakers and second-tier players have formed stable supply relationships
• Capacity Expansion Support
  : Gotion High-Tech plans to invest in building a total of 40GWh capacity bases in Nanjing and Wuhu[4]

• Shallow Technology Moat
  : In cutting-edge fields such as high-end NCM batteries and solid-state batteries, head players still hold significant advantages
• Profitability Pressure
  : Sunwoda’s power battery gross profit margin is only 9.77%, far lower than CATL’s over 22%[4]
• Capital Strength Gap
  : Head players far outperform second-tier players in R&D investment and global layout capabilities
• Overseas Market Expansion
  : International players such as LG Energy Solution and Panasonic have deeper roots in the European and American markets

It launched its battery swapping brand EVOGO in 2022, which was upgraded to

at the end of 2024, with standardized battery swap blocks introduced, targeting coverage of over 80% of new energy vehicle models on the market[1]. The logic behind the battery swapping business lies in:

• Shifting from one-time sales to recurring service revenue
• Directly engaging with end-users and gaining access to operational data
• Inversely influencing automakers’ product design

CATL has deeply bonded with global head automakers:

• Joint venture with Stellantis for capacity expansion
• Cooperating with global head automakers such as BMW and Volkswagen
• Its global market share rose to 37.9% in 2024, further consolidating its leading edge[2]

• Layouts in key mineral resources such as lithium and nickel
• Advancing innovation in cutting-edge materials such as sodium-ion batteries
• Establishing four global recycling bases with a lithium recovery rate of 91%
• Promoting the construction of zero-carbon factories and renewable energy systems

From the perspective of secondary market performance, CATL’s stock price rose by approximately

between August 2024 and January 2026, reflecting the capital market’s recognition of its long-term value[5]. However, technical indicators show adjustment pressure in the short term:

• MACD Indicator
  : No crossover signal, overall bearish
• KDJ Indicator
  : K value 31.9, D value 32.8, in the oversold zone
• Price Range
  : Support level $364.73, resistance level $376.35
• Trend Judgment
  : Sideways consolidation, no clear direction[5]

1. Short-Term Sustainability (1-2 Years):
   Against the backdrop of the dominant LFP technology route, second-tier players will continue to expand their market share by virtue of cost advantages and automakers’ demand for supply chain diversification. In particular, the high growth momentum of players such as Gotion High-Tech and Sunwoda is expected to continue.

2. Medium-Term Pressure (3-5 Years):
   As new technologies such as solid-state batteries enter mass production, technical barriers will be raised again, and the competitive advantages of head players will re-emerge. CATL’s technical reserves in fields such as sodium-ion batteries and solid-state batteries will serve as a moat.

3. Long-Term Differentiation:
   The industry will form a competition pattern of “Globalized Head Players + Regionalized Second-Tier Players”. CATL will consolidate its global leading position by virtue of its global layout and technological leadership; while second-tier players may focus on specific regional markets or niche segments.

Despite the decline in its China market share, CATL relies on the following to maintain its strength:

• A global market share of 37.9% (the second-place player has only around 17%)
• Strong technical reserves and industrial chain integration capabilities
• Innovative layout in battery swapping business
• Continuous advancement of its overseas expansion strategy

Its

. The short-term market share loss reflects more of the industry’s normal evolution from a single dominant player to oligopolistic competition, rather than a substantive weakening of its competitiveness.

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[1] Pedaily - “CATL Earns RMB 200 Million Daily” (https://news.pedaily.cn/202510/556125.shtml)

[2] Securities Times - “CATL’s Power Battery Market Share Rises to 37.9%” (https://www.stcn.com/article/detail/1524538.html)

[3] National Business Daily - “Chinese Companies Hold 6 Spots! 2024 Top 10 Global Power Battery Installed Capacity List Released” (https://www.nbd.com.cn/articles/2025-02-17/3754167.html)

[4] Securities Times/21st Century Business Herald - “How Did Power Battery Sales Achieve 50% Growth Amid a Narrative Shift” (https://www.stcn.com/article/detail/3332340.html)

[5] Gilin AI Financial Database - CATL (300750.SZ) Technical Analysis Report