In-Depth Analysis of Kweichow Moutai (600519) Channel Reform: Assessment of iMoutai Launch and Impact on Dealer System

According to the latest market data, Kweichow Moutai officially launched the subscription for 53% ABV 500ml Feitian Moutai on the iMoutai platform on January 1, 2026, at the official guided price of 1,499 yuan per bottle. Within three days of launch, the platform recorded tens of millions of visits, and ultimately over 100,000 users successfully purchased the liquor[1][2]. Due to supply shortages, the platform tightened the daily purchase limit per user from 12 bottles to 6 bottles on January 3[2].

This phenomenon reflects strong market demand for reasonably priced Moutai, while also marking a key step in the market-oriented transformation of Moutai’s marketing system. Notably, since its launch in May 2022, the iMoutai platform has accumulated 67.8486 million registered users, with monthly active users exceeding 17 million, and had achieved sales of 12.692 billion yuan as of the first three quarters of 2025[3].

Moutai currently has a distinct dual-track pricing system:

This 330 yuan spread has long been the core profit source for dealers. According to data from the first three quarters of 2025, Moutai’s wholesale and agency channel revenue reached 72.84 billion yuan, accounting for as high as 56.7% of total revenue, while iMoutai’s revenue accounted for only 9.9%[2]. This means the traditional dealer system remains the lifeline of Moutai’s sales.

A clear price inversion has emerged in the current market. The wholesale price of Feitian Moutai has fallen below the critical threshold of 1,499 yuan, with the bulk bottle quotation dropping to 1,490 yuan per bottle on January 4, 2026, representing a cumulative decline of over 100 yuan in one week[2]. Panic selling by dealers is one of the key reasons for the price drop. Industry insiders revealed that total dealer inventory in 2025 may have reached as high as 70,000 tons, equivalent to more than one year of Moutai’s production[2].

Facing the strong entry of iMoutai, some dealers have begun to proactively adjust their strategies. For example, Chengdu Chuantang Supply Chain Management Co., Ltd. launched a pre-sale campaign for 2026 Feitian Moutai cases on January 4, accepting orders at 1,499 yuan per bottle, with a maximum of 5 cases per user[2]. This move breaks the previous pricing logic of dealers, who are forced to anchor their prices to iMoutai against the backdrop of continuous volume expansion in official channels.

At the dealer conference held on December 28, 2025, Moutai announced that starting from 2026, the company will completely cancel the original distribution methods and promote the market-oriented transformation of its marketing system[1][3]. The core logic of this reform is to achieve “supply-demand matching and volume-price balance”. From a historical trend perspective, Moutai’s direct sales channel share has increased from less than 20% in 2021 to approximately 45.89% in the first quarter of 2025[3], showing a clear trend of direct sales expansion.

Based on the latest market data[0]:

Recent financial data shows that Moutai’s revenue in the third quarter of 2025 reached USD 398.1 million, below the market expectation of USD 408.3 million; the growth rate of net profit hit a 10-year low[0]. This indicates that the traditional growth model has encountered bottlenecks, making channel reform imperative.

1. Short-Term Shock Inevitable:
   The continuous volume expansion of iMoutai directly compresses the arbitrage space of dealers, and coupled with high market inventory, price wars are unavoidable.

2. Mid-Term New Balance:
   Moutai’s management emphasized that “we will not let dealers lose money”, and it is expected to maintain dealer interests through quota control, price guidance and other measures to achieve a dynamic balance between direct sales and dealer sales.

3. Long-Term Channel Restructuring:
   The increase in direct sales share is an inevitable trend, but the complete replacement of the dealer system is not feasible in the short term. Data from the first three quarters of 2025 shows that wholesale channel revenue still accounts for 56.7%, so Moutai still needs to rely on the dealer system in the short term.

The current 1,499 yuan has shifted from a “floor price” to a “ceiling price”, a transformation that completely subverts Moutai’s long-standing pricing logic[2]. If the iMoutai price remains stable, 1,499 yuan will become the anchor of market pricing; if market demand remains strong, it cannot be ruled out that Moutai will moderately adjust the official guided price.

Price fluctuations during the channel reform period, inventory impairment risks, and uncertainties in dealer relationship restructuring may all have an impact on Moutai’s short-term performance. Investors need to closely monitor market trends after the 2026 Spring Festival and adjustments to Moutai’s official policies.

[1] Southern Weekend - “Tens of Millions Rush to Buy Feitian Moutai Online, Dealers No Longer ‘Make Money Easily’” (https://news.southcn.com/node_64549305f1/1252896dca.shtml)

[2] Sina Finance - “In One Month, Moutai Denied Rumors Again, This Time About 1169!” (https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/s/2026-01-05/doc-inhffwpr8172599.shtml)

[3] Wenxuecity - “iMoutai Launches 1499 Yuan 53% Feitian Moutai, Is It the ‘End’ for Scalpers?” (https://www.wenxuecity.com/news/2026/01/01/126470312.html)

[0] Jinling API Market Data