In-Depth Analysis of the Photovoltaic Industry in 2025: Signs of Centralized Procurement Tendering Contraction and Peaking Demand

Based on the latest information retrieved, I will provide a systematic and comprehensive analysis for your question.

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Based on public information, the 2025 photovoltaic module centralized procurement tendering market has shown a significant contraction trend. Below is specific data support:

According to industry data statistics, from January to November 2025, a total of 140 bidding projects (total capacity of 116.69GW) were tracked nationwide, of which 109 projects were successfully awarded (awarded capacity of 136.49GW). However, the monthly data changes are more noteworthy:

Time Period	Change in Awarded Capacity	YoY Change
December	Plummeted 73.1% month-on-month from November	Down 37.2% year-on-year from December 2024
June-October	New installations plummeted 46% year-on-year	—

This data indicates that the photovoltaic centralized procurement tendering market cooled rapidly in the second half of 2025 after the installation rush in the first half, showing a significant contraction trend by the end of the year.

2025 photovoltaic installations experienced drastic fluctuations:

Time Period	New Installation Performance	Driving Factor
January-May	Surged 150% year-on-year, hitting a new historical high for the same period	Policy-driven rush installation spurred by the “No. 136 Document”
June-October	Plummeted 46% year-on-year	Policy dividends faded, and the market cooled rapidly

This “boom-bust” trend reflects the inherent vulnerability of the policy-driven growth model.

Multiple authoritative institutions and analysts have given conservative forecasts for domestic photovoltaic installations in 2026:

Forecast Source	2026 Expected Installations	Change from 2025
Sinolink Securities (Conservative Scenario)	185GW	Sharp decline
BloombergNEF	First annual global contraction	First time since 2000
China Photovoltaic Industry Association	No forecast released	The industry fears “the first negative growth since grid parity was achieved”

: Domestic new installations in 2026 may see the first annual negative growth in recent years, which will be a landmark turning point since grid parity was achieved.

The weak demand is not a short-term fluctuation but an inevitable result of multiple overlapping factors:

1. Shift from Policy-Driven to Market-Driven Growth
   : With the implementation of policies such as the “No. 136 Document”, new energy sources have fully participated in the power market, leading to increased revenue uncertainty
2. High Base Effect
   : After two consecutive years of high growth in 2024-2025, 2026 faces huge comparative pressure
3. Rationalization of Investment
   : A procurement director of a central state-owned enterprise revealed: “Tendering volumes in 2026 will be more rational, shifting focus from scale growth to project profitability”
4. Overseas Market Adjustments
   : Some European countries have adjusted photovoltaic subsidy policies, and the dividend of the U.S. IRA Act is gradually fading

The current photovoltaic industrial chain faces severe supply-demand imbalance:

Segment	Nominal Capacity	2026 Expected Demand	Overcapacity Rate
Polysilicon	Over 1.5 million tons	Corresponding to less than 400GW of modules	Approximately 50%
Module Capacity	Over 700GW	Global demand is expected to be less than 400GW	Approximately 50%

Shen Wenzhong, Director of the Solar Energy Research Institute at Shanghai Jiao Tong University, stated bluntly: “At least half of the TOPCon capacity will face idleness in the future, and the elimination of backward capacity is an inevitable trend.”

• End of Q3 2025
  : Industry-wide module inventory has exceeded 60GW, equivalent to two months of global installation demand
• Continuously Low Operating Rates
  : In H1 2025, the average capacity utilization rates of the three key segments (wafers, cells, modules) remained at 38.7%, 45.7%, and 48.3% respectively

Yang Xudong, Director of the Electronic Information Department of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, pointed out:

, and market-oriented and rule-of-law methods will be used to promote the orderly exit of backward capacity.

:

• Improve the price monitoring mechanism, with a focus on enterprises with abnormal pricing
• Strengthen product quality supervision and random inspections, and handle enterprises with substandard products in accordance with laws and regulations
• Improve the standard system and accelerate the release of mandatory national standards

Since the second half of 2024, the “anti-cutthroat competition” actions in the photovoltaic industry have continued to deepen:

• August
  : The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology held a special symposium to deploy the regulation of competition order in the photovoltaic industry
• Nearly 60 Enterprises Jointly Released a Consensus
  : Committed to rational capacity control and avoiding vicious competition
• End of December
  : Leading enterprises signed the Industry Self-Discipline 2.0 Convention, setting a minimum price limit of RMB 0.735/W for modules

• Polysilicon Capacity Integration and Acquisition Platform
  ——Beijing Guanghe Qiancheng Technology Co., Ltd. was registered in December 2025
• Co-held by several leading photovoltaic polysilicon enterprises, it adopts the path of “government guidance + industry coordination + market-oriented mergers and acquisitions”

After a year of “anti-cutthroat competition” efforts, the price system of the industrial chain has recovered:

Segment	Price Low	Current Price	Price Increase
N-Type High-Purity Feedstock (Polysilicon)	RMB 35,400/ton (early July)	RMB 53,600/ton (late November)	Over 50%
TOPCon Modules	Below RMB 0.63/W	RMB 0.63-0.75/W	—

The market has diverging views on the 2026 module price trends:

Outlook Viewpoint	Target Price	Logical Basis
Optimistic Forecast	RMB 0.88-0.99/W	Cost support and industry willingness to raise prices
Realistic Constraints	RMB 0.70-0.75/W	Affordability limit of downstream power stations

: Currently, there is strong willingness among producers to raise prices, but integrated module prices need to reach RMB 0.88-0.99/W to turn profitable, which is close to or exceeds the affordability limit of downstream power stations.

In the December awarded projects, demand for high-efficiency modules increased significantly:

• Proportion of HJT and BC Modules
  : Rose from 4.6% in November to 22.2%
• High-Power Requirements
  : Procurement demand for specifications above 620W is much higher than that for low-power segments
• Efficiency Threshold
  : Approximately 1.3GW of awarded capacity explicitly requires module efficiency of no less than 23.0%, accounting for 23.7% of total awarded capacity

The December awarding results show that the market pattern is concentrating towards leading enterprises:

Rank	Enterprise	Awarded Volume
1	Longi Green Energy	1.7GW
2	Tongwei Co., Ltd.	1.4GW
3	JinkoSolar	1.0GW

1. Regarding the “60GW Procurement Tender”
   : Although no specific reports of the “termination of 60GW procurement tender” were found, data shows that the total annual procurement tender volume in 2025 was approximately 116-136GW, the market contracted significantly in the second half of the year, and the awarded volume in December dropped 73.1% month-on-month, indicating a major shift in market sentiment.

2. Has Installation Demand Peaked?
   : Multiple pieces of evidence indicate that
   the probability of a phased peak in installation demand is high
   :
   • 2026 may witness the first annual negative growth
   • Shift from policy-driven to market-driven growth model
   • Investment shifts from scale expansion to yield orientation

3. Industry Cycle Position
   : The photovoltaic industry is in a period of in-depth adjustment, similar to the impact of the “531 Policy” in 2018, but the adjustment depth and time span may be longer.

• March
  : The resumption of construction after the Spring Festival and the launch of a new round of projects will be important observation windows
• Price Transmission Effect
  : Whether upstream price increases can be effectively transmitted to the module segment
• Progress of Capacity Elimination
  : The speed of backward capacity exit and industry integration process
• New Application Scenarios
  : Development of innovative models such as direct green power connection, zero-carbon parks, and source-grid-load-storage integration

Zhong Baoshen, Chairman of Longi Green Energy, stated:

. With the development of energy storage and other supporting technologies, the photovoltaic industry will enter a new development stage driven by “high-quality consumption” and in-depth market-oriented mechanisms. This means the industry is transforming from a scale expansion period to a high-quality development period; short-term pains are inevitable, but the long-term development space remains broad.

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[1] Sina Finance - “From RMB 0.7/W to RMB 1/W? What’s the Probability of a 40% Price Hike for Photovoltaic Modules in 2026” (https://www.163.com/dy/article/KICU8SH105568W0A.html)

[2] Sina Finance - “Photovoltaic ‘Anti-Cutthroat Competition’: 2026 Enters a Critical Period” (https://finance.sina.com.cn/jjxw/2026-01-03/doc-inheyhwc4099041.shtml)

[3] Eastmoney - “Photovoltaic ‘Anti-Cutthroat Competition’: 2026 Enters a Critical Period” (https://finance.eastmoney.com/a/202601033607643089.html)

[4] Sina Finance - “Only 5.5GW Awarded in the Month! Longi, Tongwei, JinkoSolar Lead December Photovoltaic Module Centralized Procurement Tenders” (https://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2026-01-05/doc-inhfhavn6750024.shtml)

[5] NetEase - “Closing 2025 | New Energy Decision Reference Witnesses Energy System Transformation” (https://www.163.com/dy/article/KIJO3DJF0552LIVZ.html)

[6] Tencent News - “Photovoltaic ‘Anti-Cutthroat Competition’: 2026 Enters a Critical Period” (https://news.qq.com/rain/a/20260103A01NKW00)