Comprehensive Analysis of the Strong Performance of Xidian Co., Ltd. (301629): Coexistence of Industry Prosperity and Valuation Pressure

This analysis is based on reports from the Stock Review Network and research reports from Caifuhao [1][2], focusing on the strong performance of Xidian Co., Ltd. on January 8, 2026. The stock rose 14.86% today, hitting the limit-up price of 305 yuan and entering the strong stock pool. The trading volume reached 4.26 million shares, 2.29 times the average of 1.86 million shares, with a turnover rate as high as 32.63%, indicating fierce capital game.

The strong performance of Xidian Co., Ltd. is driven by multiple factors, forming a resonance pattern of “industry prosperity + technological breakthrough + capital pursuit”.

: Memory chips are entering a super cycle. Driven by the continuous rise in AI demand, the contract price of DDR4 is expected to continue to rise by 30% in the first quarter of 2026, and the contract price of NAND flash memory is expected to rise by 20% [1]. International giants such as Samsung and Micron have seen their stock prices strengthen, driving up the overall popularity of the semiconductor equipment industry. The rise in memory chip prices directly stimulates the expansion motivation of wafer fabs, thereby increasing the demand for testing equipment such as probers.

: The progress of ChangXin Memory Technologies’ IPO and HongXinYu’s submission of listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange mark the accelerated securitization of the domestic memory industry chain [1]. As a leading domestic prober manufacturer, Xidian Co., Ltd. directly benefits from this structural opportunity. The current domestic substitution rate is less than 20%, and it is expected to rise to more than 50% in the next five years [2], and the company has first-mover advantage.

: Technological breakthrough is the core support. The company’s 12-inch wafer prober has broken the overseas monopoly, with a domestic market share of 25.7% [2], and its positioning accuracy is ±1.3μm, close to the international leading level. The demo equipment has been sent to Yangtze Memory for trial production, and the product has passed the 28nm process verification of SMIC, and has entered the supply chain of top clients such as SMIC, Yangtze Memory, Sanan Optoelectronics, and Goertek Micro [1][2]. In addition, Huawei Hubble acquired 4% of the pre-IPO shares in 2021, becoming one of the top ten shareholders, providing strategic endorsement for the company [2].

The current stock price shows typical strong technical features:

Indicator	Value	Implication
20-day Moving Average	233.33 yuan	The price is 25.5% higher than the moving average, showing short-term strength
50-day Moving Average	215.54 yuan	The price is 35.9% higher than the moving average, with an upward mid-term trend
52-week High	305.00 yuan	Hit the historical high today
Intraday Volatility	3.85%	High volatility
Turnover Rate	32.63%	Significant chip turnover

The stock price is far above the mid-term moving average system, showing a clear upward trend technically. However, the turnover rate exceeding 33% for two consecutive days indicates that most of the capital is for short-term game, and the pressure of profit taking cannot be ignored [3].

: The company is the largest manufacturer in mainland China and the first to realize the industrialization of 12-inch probers, with obvious technical barriers and market position. The new product layout includes sorters, AOI inspection equipment, exposure machines, die bonders, etc., and it is expected that the contribution of new businesses will reach more than 15% in 2026 [2]. The financial situation is stable, with a current ratio of 5.13 and a net profit margin of 13.08%, which is relatively healthy.

: The P/E ratio of 234 times far exceeds the normal range of 50-100 times for the semiconductor equipment sector [2], and the ROE of only 4.93% indicates that profitability needs to be improved. The rise in stock price relies more on market expectations rather than current performance realization. In addition, the revenue from the top few clients accounts for a relatively high proportion, leading to the risk of customer concentration.

The strong performance of Xidian Co., Ltd. reflects three structural changes in the semiconductor equipment sector: First, the memory chip cycle is highly bound to the AI industry, forming a transmission chain of “demand-driven pull - equipment-side benefit”; Second, domestic substitution has shifted from “policy-driven” to “market-driven”, and the accelerated capitalization of enterprises such as ChangXin Memory Technologies and HongXinYu verifies this trend; Third, industrial capital such as Huawei has invested in semiconductor equipment companies, marking a new stage of industrial chain collaboration.

The current valuation of Xidian Co., Ltd. has fully reflected and even overdrawn future growth expectations. The 234 times P/E ratio means that the market expects the company to maintain a compound annual growth rate of more than 50% in the next few years to support the current valuation. If the trial production result of Yangtze Memory fails to meet expectations, or the growth of memory chip prices narrows, the stock price will face the risk of valuation regression.

Risk Type	Risk Level	Specific Performance
Valuation Risk	High	The P/E ratio of 234 times is obviously too high, and there is a large correction space if expectations fail
Short-term Risk	High	The 5-day increase is 25%, with a large number of profit-taking positions accumulated
Sentiment Risk	Medium-High	The turnover rate exceeds 30%, mostly speculative capital
Competition Risk	Medium	Tokyo Seimitsu and Tokyo Electron still hold 46% and 27% of the global market share respectively

: If the memory chip sector remains hot and the trading volume maintains a high level, the stock price may rise inertially.

: If the trial production of Yangtze Memory goes smoothly and new product orders are landed, it may trigger a new round of market rally.

: The trend of domestic substitution is definite, and the plan to add 600 prober production capacity from 2026 to 2027 provides growth momentum [2].

The stock is currently in a state of high turnover and high volatility. It is recommended to closely monitor changes in trading volume and moving average support in the next 3-5 trading days. If the trading volume continues to expand and the stock price stands firm above the 5-day moving average (about 262 yuan), the strong pattern is expected to continue; if there is a shrinking decline or a break below the 20-day moving average, it is necessary to guard against the risk of mid-term adjustment.

The strong performance of Xidian Co., Ltd. today is driven by both fundamental improvement expectations and theme speculation. At the fundamental level, the improvement of the memory chip industry’s prosperity, accelerated domestic substitution, and the company’s technological breakthrough recognized by top clients form a solid support. At the capital level, the turnover rate of 32.63% shows fierce short-term game, and the stock will face profit-taking pressure tomorrow. At the valuation level, the 234 times P/E ratio has overdrawn future growth expectations, and performance verification is needed. Comprehensive judgment: short-term performance is dominated by sentiment. It is recommended that investors holding positions set stop-loss and stop-profit levels (refer to the 5-day moving average), and investors without positions should be cautious about chasing highs and wait for adjustment opportunities. For mid-to-long term layout, investors can accumulate positions on dips, but need to wait for the valuation to return to a reasonable range.

Price Type	Price	Significance
Limit-up Price	306.00 yuan	Tomorrow’s limit-up price
Closing Price	292.89 yuan	Current bullish defense line
5-day Moving Average	~262 yuan	Important short-term support
20-day Moving Average	233.33 yuan	Mid-term trend support
Stop-loss Reference	255-260 yuan	Consider reducing positions if broken

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[0] Jinling Analysis Database - Market Data and Technical Indicators

[1] Stock Review Network - Memory Chip Prosperity Surges, Domestic Prober Leader Rides the Wave, https://301629.fupanwang.com/dsk/2026-01-05.html

[2] Caifuhao - Investment Value Evaluation and Prospect Outlook of Xidian Co., Ltd., https://caifuhao.eastmoney.com/news/20251226095603664087170

[3] Securities Times - 132 A-shares Witness Significant Chip Turnover (January 7), https://www.stcn.com/article/detail/3576356.html

[4] Securities Times - Number of A-shares Priced Over 100 Yuan Reaches 202, Electronics Sector Accounts for the Highest Proportion, https://www.stcn.com/article/detail/3573993.html

[5] Eastmoney PDF - Xidian Co., Ltd. (301629.SZ): A Leading Domestic Prober Equipment Enterprise, https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202507221713749798_1.pdf