Analysis of Powerhouse Stock Nanda Optoelectronics (300346): Logic and Risk Assessment Behind the Limit-Up of a Leading ArF Photoresist Player

Nanda Optoelectronics (300346) surged 20% to hit a limit-up on January 7, 2026, closing at 55.19 yuan. It made it onto the stock exchange’s Dragon and Tiger List, with a daily turnover of 10.428 billion yuan, a turnover rate of 29.92%, and a net inflow of 858 million yuan in main force funds, ranking among the top five in terms of capital inflow in Shenzhen A-shares [1][3][4]. The stock is among 99 stocks that hit a record closing high, reaching an all-time high of 60.15 yuan [2].

can be summarized into three dimensions:

A strong earthquake in Japan in December 2025 damaged the high-end photoresist production capacity of Japanese enterprises such as Tokyo Ohka Kogyo and Shin-Etsu Chemical. Meanwhile, Japan delayed export approvals for photoresist to China, suspending supply for some models, significantly lengthening the import cycle for high-end photoresist and greatly increasing the urgency of domestic substitution [5].

The 3rd Phase of the National Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund (Big Fund) has identified photoresist as a top priority, providing 5 billion yuan in special support [5][6]. Coupled with the Shanghai Composite Index hitting a record 14 consecutive up days in the A-share market, overall market risk appetite has improved, with a net capital inflow of 2.838 billion yuan into the semiconductor industry chain on the day [3].

The photoresist sector rose 6.05% overall on the day. As a domestic leader in ArF photoresist, Nanda Optoelectronics was the first to hit a limit-up, driving CoreMorrow (688037) to a 20% limit-up, Tonking New Materials (603650) to a one-word limit-up, and Anji Technology (688019) to an 18.86% gain [3][6].

Analyzing the price-volume relationship, the stock shows a typical

. On January 7, trading volume reached 19.646 million shares, 2.6 times the 20-day average volume (7.541 million shares), indicating that capital competition has entered a white-hot stage [0][1]. A turnover rate of 29.92% is extremely high, reflecting strong market absorption on one hand, and suggesting loosening of chips on the other.

Time Horizon	Price Change	Technical Implication
January 7 (Intraday)	+20.00%	Failed to seal the limit-up, indicating upper resistance [1]
5 Trading Days	+30.47%	Short-term accelerated rise, deviating from moving averages [0]
1 Month	+34.68%	Main uptrend at the monthly chart level [0]
6 Months	+78.99%	Sustained bullish trend [0]
1 Year	+84.62%	Hit a record high [0]

• Strong Resistance Level (60.15 yuan)
  : The all-time high hit on January 7, which is also the 52-week high; stronger momentum is needed to break through
• Short-term Support (55.19 yuan)
  : Closing price on January 7; be wary of a short-term correction if this level is broken
• Important Support (52.00 yuan)
  : Previous high-density trading zone
• Medium-Term Moving Average Support (45.93 yuan)
  : Location of the 20-day moving average
• Strong Support (41.00-43.00 yuan)
  : Upper edge of the previous consolidation platform [0]

Capital Type	Net Inflow/Outflow	Interpretation
Main Force Funds	+858 million yuan	Large-scale position building by institutions [3][4]
Hot Money	-818 million yuan	Short-term speculative funds taking profits and exiting [1]
Retail Funds	-40 million yuan	Retail investors trapped from chasing highs [1]

This capital structure shows the typical characteristics of a powerhouse stock:

. The large net inflow of main force funds (usually referring to institutions such as public funds and insurance companies) indicates that long-term funds recognize the company’s value, while hot money taking profits at the limit-up level means that short-term speculation is coming to an end.

Business Segment	Industry Position	Core Data
Electronic Special Gases	World’s largest production capacity for hydrogen-based special gases, world’s third-largest production capacity for nitrogen trifluoride	Annual production capacity of 5,400 tons at the Ulan Qab base; 2,000-ton expansion project to be put into operation in 2027 [5][6]
MO Source/Precursor	World’s largest market share with over 40% global penetration	High technical barriers, with customers covering top international manufacturers [5]
Photoresist	Domestic leader in ArF photoresist, the only enterprise to achieve mass production for 28nm processes	Annual production capacity of 1,000 tons; passed SMIC’s 14nm process validation, and received hundred-ton-level orders [5][6]

In Q3 FY2025, the company achieved revenue of 655 million yuan, a 11.4% quarter-on-quarter increase; EPS improved significantly from 0.01 yuan in Q4 to 0.13 yuan [0]. Brokerages predict that net profit attributable to shareholders will be 385 million yuan, 452 million yuan, and 537 million yuan in 2025-2027, corresponding to P/E ratios of 69.5x, 59.1x, and 49.8x respectively [6].

1. Accelerated Domestic Substitution
   : Restricted supply from Japan coupled with passing validation by domestic wafer fabs is expected to drive sustained order growth
2. Capacity Expansion
   : The Ulan Qab special gas project will double production capacity upon commissioning
3. Technological Breakthrough
   : ArF photoresist covers 14-28nm processes, with 7nm products already finalized [5][6]

The strong performance of Nanda Optoelectronics reflects profound structural changes taking place in the semiconductor industry chain. The impact of the Japanese earthquake on photoresist supply is not an isolated incident, but has exacerbated the exposure of the “choke point” issue in semiconductor materials. As the “crown jewel of semiconductor materials”, high-end photoresist has extremely high technical barriers, and the global market has long been monopolized by Japanese enterprises such as JSR, Tokyo Ohka Kogyo, and Shin-Etsu Chemical (with a market share of over 80%). The 5 billion yuan in special support from the 3rd Phase of the Big Fund indicates the policy-makers’ firm determination to solve this “choke point” problem [5][6].

The single-day net inflow of 858 million yuan in main force funds is extremely rare among small and medium-cap stocks. Combined with the company’s market capitalization of 38.82 billion yuan, the net inflow of main force funds accounts for 2.2% of its market value, indicating that institutional investors are systematically building positions in core assets of the semiconductor materials sector. This capital behavior aligns with the market background of the Shanghai Composite Index’s 14 consecutive up days - against the backdrop of improved overall market risk appetite, growth stocks with long-term logic are more likely to attract capital [3].

A turnover rate of 29.92% means that nearly one-third of tradable chips changed hands on the day. Combined with the net outflow of 818 million yuan in hot money and 40 million yuan in retail funds, it can be inferred that:

. If this chip conversion can continue, it will be conducive to the in-depth development of the market trend.

1. The sustainability of the photoresist sector’s rally depends on the progress of order fulfillment.
   Nanda Optoelectronics’ current rally is mainly driven by events (earthquake + sentiment); for it to evolve into a trending rally, actual growth in photoresist business revenue needs to be seen. Whether the 385 million yuan net profit predicted by brokerages for 2025 can be achieved will be a key verification point for the sustainability of the rally.

2. Analysis of Valuation Digestion Paths.
   There is a large gap between the current 127x P/E ratio and the 69.5x predicted by brokerages. Possible paths for valuation digestion include: ① Sideways trading to wait for earnings growth (time for space); ② Pullback to a reasonable range; ③ The market granting a higher valuation premium (requiring stronger logical support). Considering the company’s technical barriers and domestic substitution logic, the probability of the second path is relatively low.

3. Game Pattern Between Main Force Funds and Hot Money.
   Data from the Dragon and Tiger List shows signs of hot money exiting, which means short-term speculative funds are withdrawing while institutional funds are entering. From a trading perspective, this transition period is often accompanied by sharp fluctuations in stock prices, and investors need to be mentally prepared.

4. Sustained Impact of Supply Disruptions from Japan.
   Japan’s export controls on photoresist to China have evolved from “temporary measures” to “normalized policies”, which means the urgency of domestic substitution will persist in the long term. Even if Japanese production capacity recovers, the localization process will not be reversed, which is the core support for Nanda Optoelectronics’ medium- to long-term value.

Risk Type	Specific Description	Risk Level	Response Strategy
Valuation Risk	Current 127x P/E ratio is significantly higher than the industry average and brokerage forecasts	⚠️ Medium-High	Wait for the valuation to fall below 70x P/E before paying attention
Risk of Excessive Short-Term Gains	30% gain in 5 days, 35% gain in 1 month, pushing the stock into an overbought territory in the short term	⚠️ Medium-High	Monitor the effectiveness of support at the 5-day moving average
Turnover Rate Risk	A turnover rate of 29.92% indicates loosening of chips	⚠️ Medium	Watch whether the turnover rate declines in subsequent sessions
Risk of Hot Money Exiting	Dragon and Tiger List shows a net outflow of 818 million yuan in hot money	⚠️ Medium	Avoid chasing highs, accumulate positions on dips
Performance Fulfillment Risk	Progress in scaling up photoresist production falls short of expectations	🔶 Medium-Low	Track order and revenue data
Market Sentiment Risk	A sector-wide pullback may drive the stock down	🔶 Medium-Low	Set a reasonable stop-loss level

• Short-Term (1-2 Weeks)
  : High risk. Combined factors such as hot money exiting, high turnover rate, and technical overbought status put the stock under pressure for a technical correction. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines or adopt a short-term quick trading strategy.
• Medium-Term (1-3 Months)
  : Opportunities and risks coexist. If the stock price pulls back to a support level and stabilizes with shrinking volume, investors can consider building positions; if order fulfillment for the photoresist business is strong, the rally is expected to develop in depth.
• Long-Term (6+ Months)
  : Core asset allocation value becomes prominent. Against the backdrop of domestic substitution, as a key “choke point” material, policy support for photoresist is expected to continue to increase, and the company’s technical advantages and capacity expansion will gradually be converted into earnings growth.

The strong performance of Nanda Optoelectronics (300346) is the result of the superposition of three factors:

. As a domestic leader in ArF photoresist, the company has notable advantages in technical barriers and market share, and policy support from the 3rd Phase of the Big Fund further strengthens its long-term logic.

However, its current P/E ratio of 127x is significantly higher than the level predicted by brokerages; the 30% gain in 5 days and 35% gain in one month have pushed the stock into an overbought territory, and a turnover rate of 29.92% plus signs of hot money exiting indicate intensifying short-term speculation.

, remain cautious in the short term, and accumulate core assets on dips in the medium term.

: 60.15 yuan is a short-term strong resistance level, 55.19 yuan is the closing support level on the first day of the rally, 45.93 yuan is the medium-term support level at the 20-day moving average, and 41-43 yuan is the strong support level at the upper edge of the previous consolidation platform.