Analysis of the Commercialization Prospects of JD.com's AI Business and the Impact of Its Digital Human Free Strategy

Based on the above in-depth research data, I have prepared this professional analysis report on

.

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In January 2025, JD.com officially established the “

”, which fully undertakes the development and commercialization of core AI products including JoyAI App, JoyInside, and digital humans [1][2]. This organizational restructuring marks JD.com’s integration of its AI business from scattered experimental projects into a systematic, strategic business line.

Product Name	Functional Positioning	Application Scenarios
JoyAI Large Model	Covers full-size models from 3B to 750B, supporting multi-modal interaction across text, voice, image, video, and digital humans	Intelligent customer service, content generation, decision support
JoyInside (Possessive Intelligence)	Infuses high-emotional-quotient interaction capabilities into terminal devices such as robots and toys	AI toys, delivery robots, robot dogs
JoyStreamer (Digital Human Live Streaming)	7×24-hour uninterrupted live streaming service	Live commerce, brand endorsement, event commentary
JoyBuilder	Model development platform	Technology empowerment for partners

Xu Ran, CEO of JD.com, clearly stated at the earnings conference: “We believe AI brings enormous development opportunities and great value in business model transformation” [3]. JD.com plans to continue investing over the next three years to drive various industries to jointly form a

.

JD.com has established significant technological leadership in the AI digital human field:

• 30% improvement in inference efficiency
  : Achieved through dynamic hierarchical distillation technology
• 70% reduction in training costs
  : Supported by cross-domain data governance technology
• Live streaming costs are only 1/10 of human hosts
  : Performance surpasses 80% of human anchors [4]
• Covers over 60 product categories
  : Beauty, apparel, home furnishing, 3C, and other full categories

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JD.com’s digital human live streaming service has been

, and has served over cumulatively as of now [1][2]. This strategy has brought significant growth effects:

Indicator	Performance	Year-over-Year Growth
Number of merchants adopting digital human live streaming	40,000+ brands	Nearly 6x
Number of viewers of digital human live streaming	17 million+	Substantial growth
Cumulative GMV driven	Over RMB 700 million	Steady increase
Categories covered by the service	60+	Stable expansion

The essence of the free strategy is to achieve market education and penetration improvement by . Against the backdrop of increasingly fierce competition in live commerce, small and medium-sized merchants have strong demand for low-cost, high-efficiency live streaming solutions. JD.com quickly captures user minds and establishes a first-mover advantage through the free strategy.

The mid-term goal of the free strategy is to build a complete

:

1. Restructuring of traffic entry points
   : AI agents realize the paradigm shift from “people looking for services” to “services looking for people” [5]

2. Improvement of merchant operational efficiency
   :
   • AI image generation tools (Jingdian Dian, JD Linglong)
   • Intelligent product launching system
   • 7×24-hour customer service (Jing Xiaozhi)
   • Intelligent operation “AI Store Manager”

3. Cross-industry empowerment
   :
   • JD Health launched “AI Hospital 1.0”
   • JD Industry released JoyIndustrial, the industry’s first supply chain large model
   • JD Logistics’ “Super Brain 2.0” has been called 1.9 billion times cumulatively [3]

Despite the current free strategy, JD.com is building diversified commercialization paths:

• Charges for value-added services
  : Customized premium digital humans, exclusive customer service
• Traffic and transaction sharing
  : Commission model based on GMV
• Charges for ecosystem services
  : Technology platform usage fees, API call fees
• Monetization of hardware products
  : Terminal devices such as AI toys (the second batch of products will be fully launched in mid-January 2025, targeting all age groups) [1]

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China’s live e-commerce market continues to grow rapidly:

• Market size
  : Increased from less than RMB 500 billion in 2019 to RMB 5.86 trillion in 2024 [6]
• User scale
  : Reached 469 million in 2024, expected to exceed 600 million in 2025 [7]
• Industry growth rate
  : Dropped from 227% in 2020 to 19% in 2024, entering a period of structural adjustment

According to 2025 market data, the digital human live streaming market presents a

[8]:

Platform	Market Share	Competitive Advantages
Taobao/Alibaba	50.1%	Supply chain advantages, 40% of live streams are brand self-operated
JD.com	18.9%	Technical cost advantages, service quality
Pinduoduo	14.8%	Sinking market, price advantages
Douyin	12.2%	Interest recommendation algorithm, content ecosystem
Kuaishou	3.9%	High stickiness of private domain traffic, sinking market

Competitor	Digital Human Strategy	Differentiated Advantages
Alibaba	Leverages DAMO Academy technology, brand digital humans as “spokespersons”	Ecosystem integration, full-category coverage
Douyin	ByteDance’s OmniHuman-1.5 model, supporting multi-person emotion-driven interaction	Content algorithm, technological innovation
Baidu	High-persuasion Digital Human 3.0, with highly coordinated “appearance, demeanor, voice, and expression”	AI search with 322 million monthly active users
Kuaishou	Customized digital human services	Deep cultivation of the sinking market

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Indicator	Value	Year-over-Year Change
Market Capitalization	$41.19 billion	-
Current Stock Price	$29.03	-17.01% over the past year
Price-to-Earnings Ratio (P/E)	9.74x	Lower than the industry average
Price-to-Book Ratio (P/B)	1.35x	Relatively undervalued
ROE	13.81%	Stable profitability
Net Profit Margin	2.47%	Under pressure

Business Segment	Revenue	Year-over-Year Growth Rate	Operating Profit
JD Retail	RMB 250.6 billion	+11.37%	RMB 14.8 billion (profit margin 5.9%)
JD Logistics	RMB 55.1 billion	+24.1%	RMB 2.02 billion (adjusted net profit)
New Businesses (including food delivery)	High growth	+213.7%	Loss of RMB 15.736 billion

• JD Retail’s core business is stable, with profit margin increasing from 5.2% to 5.9%
• The logistics business maintains dual growth, with significant effects of AI technology empowerment
• New businesses (food delivery + AI) are in the strategic investment phase, with large losses

Indicator	Data
Consensus Rating	Buy (70.5% of analysts recommend)
Target Price Range	$32.00 - $41.00
Consensus Target Price	$37.50
Upside Potential	+29.2%

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According to authoritative data from iiMedia Research [9]:

Year	Core Market Size	Driving Market Size
2024	RMB 33.92 billion	RMB 478.53 billion
2025E	RMB 49.54 billion	-
2026E	RMB 70 billion	-
2030E	RMB 93.56 billion	RMB 1,046.86 billion

1. Technological breakthroughs
   : Continuous iteration of large model technology, upgrade of multi-modal interaction capabilities
2. Cost reduction
   : The production cost of digital humans has dropped to the thousand-yuan level [10]
3. Expansion of application scenarios
   : Extended from live commerce to government services, healthcare, education, finance, and other fields
4. Policy support
   : Continuous advancement of the digital economy strategy

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Advantage Dimension	Specific Performance
Technical cost	Live streaming costs are only 1/10 of human hosts, training costs reduced by 70%
Service scale	Served over 50,000 brands cumulatively, with an 18.9% market share
Ecosystem integration	Complete AI capability system from models and platforms to scenarios
Strategic investment	Three-year trillion-scale AI ecosystem plan, continuous capital investment
Scenario implementation	Over 1,800 scenario applications, serving 3 million merchants

Risk Type	Specific Content
Profitability risk	The AI business is still in the investment phase and is unlikely to contribute profits in the short term
Intensified competition risk	Alibaba, Douyin, Kuaishou, etc., continue to increase investment in the digital human track
Technological iteration risk	Rapid evolution of AI technology may lead to pressure in technological route selection
Macro environment risk	Weak consumer sentiment may affect the overall growth of e-commerce platforms

• The current P/E ratio is only 9.74x, significantly lower than the historical average and comparable companies
• JD Retail’s core business is stable, with continuous improvement in profit margin
• Although the AI business has not contributed significant revenue yet, it has huge potential for valuation re-rating
• The consensus target price of $37.50 from analysts corresponds to approximately 29% upside potential

• Acceleration of AI business commercialization
• Increase in the paid conversion rate of digital human services
• Sales breakthrough of hardware products such as AI toys
• Reduction in losses from the food delivery business

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1. Strategic level
   : JD.com’s establishment of the “Chameleon Business Unit” to integrate AI resources reflects its high priority on AI strategy, which aligns with the industry transformation trend of “from traffic-driven to intelligence-driven” [5].

2. Commercialization prospects
   : The size of the digital human market is expected to grow from RMB 33.9 billion in 2024 to RMB 93.6 billion in 2030. JD.com is poised to gain a larger market share thanks to its technological and cost advantages.

3. Impact of the free strategy
   : In the short term, the free strategy rapidly expands user scale and brand influence; in the medium term, it lays the foundation for subsequent monetization through ecosystem construction; in the long term, diversified profit models are expected.

4. Competition pattern
   : JD.com ranks second in the digital human live streaming market with an 18.9% share, still lagging behind Alibaba (50.1%), but has differentiated advantages in cost efficiency and technological innovation.

JD.com’s AI business is in a critical transition phase

. The free digital human access strategy reflects the platform’s competitive strategy of gaining market share quickly by offering concessions, which echoes the “full-year zero commission” strategy for its food delivery business [11].

With the continuous maturity of AI technology and further cost reduction, digital human services are expected to become standard infrastructure for e-commerce platforms. If JD.com can maintain leadership in technological iteration, scenario expansion, and commercialization innovation, it is expected to occupy a favorable position in the wave of AI reshaping the e-commerce landscape.

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[1] IT Home - Sources say JD.com established the “Chameleon Business Unit”, and the second batch of self-developed AI toys is in preparation (https://www.ithome.com/0/911/484.htm)

[2] Xinhua News Agency - Looking Back at 2025 · Changes in Physical Objects | A New Life in Apps (http://www.news.cn/tech/20251219/d43c3ba9bb9e48a58977cd1332eacdbd/c.html)

[3] Science and Technology Innovation Board Daily - JD.com amid the food delivery war: Q3 revenue grew nearly 15%, AI brings enormous development opportunities (https://www.cls.cn/detail/2200189)

[4] Securities Times - “Double 11” enters a new stage of efficiency competition: AI and instant retail reshape growth logic (https://www.stcn.com/article/detail/3385843.html)

[5] Securities Daily - Technological breakthroughs coupled with cost reduction: AI digital human applications bloom in multiple fields (https://www.stcn.com/article/detail/2187212.html)

[6] Qianzhan Industry Research Institute - 2026 Live E-Commerce Market Competition Analysis (https://m.chinabgao.com/info/1296601.html)

[7] Sina Finance - 2025 China Live E-Commerce Industry Chain Map and Investment Layout Analysis (https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/t/2025-08-07/doc-infkcmre0143996.shtml)

[8] New Broadcast Field - Top 10 Events, Reviewing the 2025 Annual Inventory of Live E-Commerce (https://www.woshipm.com/share/6317707.html)

[9] iiMedia Research - 2025 China Digital Human Industry Development Report (https://www.iimedia.cn/c400/107827.html)

[10] Alibaba Cloud Developer Community - 2025 In-Depth Report on Core Players, Authoritative Rankings, and Market Trends of the Digital Human Industry (https://developer.aliyun.com/article/1693430)

[11] Jiemian News - Top 10 Critical Moments in Chinese Business in 2025: Restructuring, Awakening, Cooperation and Competition (https://m.jiemian.com/article/13832379.html)

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January 8, 2026
Jinling AI Securities API, public market data, third-party research institutions