Analysis of the Surge in China Eximbank's 2025 Foreign Trade Loans and Corresponding Investment Strategies

Based on the latest collected data and policy information, I will provide you with a systematic and comprehensive analysis.

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According to the latest report from Xinhua News Agency, China Eximbank demonstrated strong financial support for foreign trade and manufacturing in 2025 [1]. The specific data is characterized by two “over 60%” metrics:

• Foreign Trade Loans
  : Over
  RMB 1.2 trillion
  in new foreign trade loans were issued, accounting for over 60% of the bank’s total loan disbursements, indicating that foreign trade business has become the core pillar of China Eximbank
• Manufacturing Loans
  : Nearly
  RMB 860 billion
  in new manufacturing loans were issued, of which
  RMB 540 billion were medium- and long-term loans
  , accounting for over 60% of the total, reflecting strategic support for the long-term development of the manufacturing industry

This policy orientation forms a synergistic effect with the “Two RMB 500 Billion” growth-stabilizing policies launched in September-October 2025. The RMB 500 billion new policy-based financial instruments were fully disbursed in October, and their driving effect on infrastructure investment and manufacturing investment began to be concentratedly reflected in December [2].

Support Dimension	Specific Measures	Investment Implications
Subject Coverage	Export-oriented enterprises, private enterprises, small and micro enterprises	Inclusive finance lowers financing thresholds
Trade Model	Intermediate goods trade, green trade	Priority support for exports of high-value-added products
New Formats	Cross-border e-commerce, overseas warehouse construction	Cultivation of new foreign trade growth drivers
Technology Field	Digital economy, artificial intelligence, basic research	Scientific and technological innovation and achievement transformation

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In the first 11 months of 2025, China’s total import and export value of goods trade reached

, a year-on-year increase of 3.6% [3]. The national CCPIT system issued a total of 791,600 various certificates, a year-on-year increase of 21.6%, fully confirming the good momentum of continuous growth in foreign trade [4]. The large-scale credit support from policy banks is generating the following positive effects:

1. Reduced Financing Costs
   : Low-cost funds from policy-based finance provide foreign trade enterprises with a more competitive financing channel compared to market-based financing
2. Improved Cash Flow
   : Medium- and long-term loans account for over 60% of the total, effectively matching the order and payment collection cycles of foreign trade enterprises
3. Enhanced International Competitiveness
   : Supports enterprises in “going global” to build overseas warehouses and expand overseas market shares

Three important trends can be seen from CCPIT data [4]:

• Accelerated Development of Emerging Markets
  : The value of preferential origin certificates issued increased by 30.93% year-on-year, as enterprises reduce their dependence on a single country for foreign trade by developing emerging markets
• Release of RCEP Dividends
  : The value of RCEP origin certificates issued increased by 20.33% year-on-year, and the utilization rate of regional trade agreements continued to rise
• Trade Facilitation
  : A combination of policies such as accelerated export tax rebates and expanded export credit insurance continues to be implemented

Key Investment Focuses for Foreign Trade Enterprises:
├── Export-oriented enterprises (especially private/small and micro enterprises) will directly benefit from credit support
├── Cross-border e-commerce platforms and overseas warehouse operators receive key policy support
├── Structural opportunities exist for intermediate goods producers in green trade
└── Need to pay attention to potential disturbances to the export chain caused by trade friction uncertainties

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In December 2025, the Manufacturing PMI rose 0.9 percentage points month-on-month to

, returning to the expansion range after 8 months [2]. This data has important signal significance:

• Stabilization on Both Supply and Demand Sides
  : The production index rebounded sharply by 1.7 percentage points from the previous month to 51.7%, and the new orders index rose by 1.6 percentage points to 50.8%
• High-Tech Manufacturing Takes the Lead
  : The High-Tech Manufacturing PMI rose to an annual high of
  52.5%
  , and the Consumer Goods Industry PMI reached
  50.4%
  [2]
• Improved Export Orders
  : The new export orders index rose by 1.4 percentage points to 49.0%, the highest level in nearly 20 months

Industry Type	PMI Performance	Investment Value Judgment
High-Tech Manufacturing	52.5% (annual high)	Policy support plus industrial upgrading drive upward shift in valuation center
Electronic Communication, Pharmaceuticals	Leading prosperity	Clear opportunities in innovation-driven industries
Traditional Cyclical Industries	Consistently below critical point	Structural pressures persist; caution against performance risks
Small Enterprises	48.6% (contraction range)	Operating pressures have not been substantially relieved

China Eximbank tilts credit resources towards advanced manufacturing, and precisely disburses new policy-based financial instruments to support project construction in key fields such as the digital economy and artificial intelligence [1]. This orientation clearly points to:

• New Industrialization Direction
  : Intelligent manufacturing, industrial internet, automation equipment
• Breakthroughs in Bottleneck Technologies
  : Semiconductors, high-end equipment, new materials
• Green Manufacturing Transformation
  : New energy equipment, energy conservation and environmental protection technologies

According to the 2025 Report on the Development Index of China’s Manufacturing Power, China has entered the second echelon of global manufacturing powers, on par with Germany and Japan, becoming the fourth country to join the ranks of global manufacturing powers after the United States, Germany, and Japan [5]. This milestone progress indicates:

• Continued consolidation of scale advantages
• The incremental value of the innovation development sub-index ranks first for the first time
• The quality and efficiency sub-index maintains a good momentum

As Sino-US economic and trade relations tend to ease (the US has suspended the 10% tariff on fentanyl from China and extended the exemption of some Section 301 tariffs until November 2026), the tariff uncertainty faced by foreign trade enterprises has significantly decreased, and the export chain is expected to ease from continued suppression [6]. This will drive the gradual recovery of enterprise inventory replenishment and equipment investment.

Despite clear recovery signals, the following risk factors still need attention:

1. Continuous Pressure on Small Enterprises
   : The PMI of small enterprises has been in the contraction range for consecutive months, and there is a time lag in policy transmission
2. Downturn in Traditional Cyclical Industries
   : Prosperity remains low in industries such as non-metallic mineral products and ferrous metal smelting
3. Unbalanced Consumption Recovery
   : The business activity index of contact industries such as retail and catering is still in the contraction range
4. External Environment Variables
   : New export orders have not yet broken through the boom-bust line; if the external environment fluctuates, export chain enterprises still face downside risks

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Based on the above analysis, it is recommended that investors focus on the following three main themes:

Investment Theme	Sub-sectors	Logic Support
High-Tech Manufacturing	Semiconductors, industrial robots, AI applications	Policy tilt + leading prosperity + recovery of global equipment investment cycle
Export Chain Recovery	Electronic components, mechanical equipment, textiles and apparel	Eased tariff expectations + credit support + increased overseas market shares
New Foreign Trade Formats	Cross-border e-commerce platforms, overseas warehouse operations	Empowerment by policy-based finance + cultivation of new trade models

1. High Export Ratio
   : Priority should be given to manufacturing enterprises with overseas revenue accounting for over 40% of total revenue
2. Private/Small and Micro Enterprises
   : Policies clearly support financing for private enterprises and small and micro enterprises
3. High Technological Content
   : Conforms to the “Specialized, Sophisticated, Unique, and New” positioning, with core technological barriers
4. Financial Health
   : Focus on asset-liability ratio and cash flow status to avoid high leverage risks

• Short-term (1-3 months)
  : Monitor the sustainability of the Manufacturing PMI and the implementation effect of policies
• Medium-term (3-6 months)
  : Seize the performance verification window of Q1 reports
• Long-term (6-12 months)
  : Lay out positions to capture industrial policy dividends in the first year of the 15th Five-Year Plan

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The surge in policy banks’ foreign trade loans sends a clear policy signal:

. This policy orientation has three implications for investment:

1. Increased Certainty
   : Continuous investment in policy-based finance provides foreign trade enterprises and the manufacturing industry with stable funding sources and a low-cost financing environment
2. Structural Optimization
   : The fact that medium- and long-term loans account for over 60% of the total indicates that the policy focuses more on long-term development capabilities rather than short-term stimulus, which is conducive to high-quality enterprises standing out
3. Growth Driver Transformation
   : Priority support is given to new productive forces such as the digital economy and artificial intelligence, which aligns with the global industrial upgrading trend

Looking ahead to 2026, with the implementation of the 15th Five-Year Plan, the continuous efforts of policy-based financial instruments, and the marginal improvement of the global trade environment, Chinese foreign trade enterprises and the manufacturing sector are expected to see a dual recovery in valuation and performance. However, investors still need to pay attention to the recovery progress of small enterprises, the clearance of traditional industries, and potential changes in the external economic and trade environment, and manage risks while seizing structural opportunities.

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[1] Xinhua News Agency - China Eximbank Issues Over RMB 1.2 Trillion in New Foreign Trade Loans in 2025 (http://www.news.cn/20260108/450b80d0b168445f89f73617e4638ced/c.html)

[2] Orient Jincheng/National Business Daily - 50.1%! Manufacturing PMI Returns to Expansion Range After 8 Months (https://finance.sina.com.cn/jjxw/2026-01-04/doc-inhfeeek7369512.shtml)

[3] Securities Times - Adhere to Opening Up and Promote Win-Win Cooperation in Multiple Fields (https://www.stcn.com/article/detail/3577930.html)

[4] CCPIT - December 2025 Regular Press Conference (https://www.ccpit.org/a/20251229/20251229p9jc.html)

[5] Chinese Academy of Engineering - 2025 Report on the Development Index of China’s Manufacturing Power (http://chisa.edu.cn/general/202512/t20251230_2111432072.html)

[6] CITIC Construction Investment - Top 10 Outlook for 2026 (https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/marketresearch/2026-01-01/doc-inheuffu3221643.shtml)