Deep Analysis of Xiaomi Group (1810.HK): Structural Conflicts of the Personal IP Binding Model and Investment Value Assessment

Based on the above data and analysis, here is a detailed research report for you:

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Indicator	Data
Current Price	HK$38.16 (January 7, 2026)
Monthly Decline	7.47% (from HK$41.24 to HK$38.16)
52-Week High	HK$61.45
52-Week Low	HK$32.20
Maximum Decline from High	Approximately 34%
Market Capitalization	Approximately HK$989.4 billion
P/E (TTM)	19.63x

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According to the latest research report from Citibank, Lei Jun revealed in his first live stream of 2026 that Xiaomi Auto’s 2026 delivery target is 550,000 units, representing a year-on-year increase of over 34%, but

[1][2]. This conservative target has sparked market concerns.

• 2025 Actual Deliveries: 410,000 units (exceeding the original target of 400,000 units)
• 2026 Market Expectation: 600,000-700,000 units
• 2026 Company Target: 550,000 units
• Citibank Forecast: 700,000 units

Citibank estimates that as of the end of 2025, the actual order backlog for Xiaomi Auto is

, with monthly orders stabilizing at approximately 20,000 units[1]. This data suggests possible marginal weakness on the demand side.

Lin Bin, co-founder of Xiaomi, has notified that starting from December 2026, he plans to sell Class B ordinary shares of the company with an annual value not exceeding US$500 million (approximately HK$3.9 billion), with a cumulative total sale value not exceeding US$2 billion (approximately HK$15.6 billion)[3]. The large-scale share reduction plan has exacerbated market uncertainty.

1. SU7 Ultra Hood False Promotion Controversy
   : A refund dispute arose in the first half of 2025. Although Xiaomi provided a limited-time configuration modification service and a point compensation scheme, many car owners did not accept it[4]
2. Extended Delivery Cycle for Xiaomi YU7
   : The delivery cycle is as long as 7 to 8 months, and the production capacity bottleneck has not yet been fully resolved
3. Public Outcry Over Safety Accidents
   : Xiaomi Auto has been involved in multiple accidents causing serious personal injuries[4]

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According to a report from 36Kr, since 2025, “black water army” (malicious paid trolls) attacks from competitors have put Lei Jun in a public opinion predicament. Lei Jun admitted in a live stream: “Sometimes I wonder if this is the goal of the black water army’s attacks on me, to make me stop talking”[4][5].

• Lei Jun’s fitness photos were maliciously interpreted and attacked
• Every word and action was taken out of context and misinterpreted
• The comment section on his Weibo account became a “large-scale complaining site”

Xiaomi’s collaboration with “The Almighty Bear” (a controversial KOL) sparked strong backlash from users, and even the collaborating blogger couldn’t help but warn “Don’t destroy your own foundation”[5]. This incident exposed loopholes in Xiaomi’s partner selection and brand risk management.

Once consumers form the cognitive inertia of “Lei Jun = Xiaomi”, any minor fluctuation will be infinitely amplified:

• SU7 accident → Doubts directly target “Lei Jun’s technical judgment ability”
• Collaboration with controversial KOL → Escalated to a trust crisis of “Xiaomi betraying its fans”
• Strategic decision-making errors → Interpreted as issues with the founder’s personal judgment

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Xiaomi chose the strategic path of “binding founder IP with the brand” from its inception. This model has once brought huge dividends:

• Data shows that
  37% of Xiaomi users follow the brand because of Lei Jun
  [5]
• A single statement at the SU7 launch drove 50,000 orders
• The first live stream of 2026 had over 2 million concurrent viewers on Bilibili, and topped 4 to 5 trending lists on Weibo[4]

• Low-cost customer acquisition
• High user stickiness
• High brand awareness

However, this model has fundamental structural conflicts:

Dimension	Personal IP Dividend Period	Negative Backlash Period
Attention Allocation	Founder’s halo amplifies brand effect	All controversies target the individual
Risk Exposure	Personal image equals brand image	Personal negatives directly impact stock price
Narrative Ability	Personal stories drive brand narrative	Brand lacks independent narrative ability
Decision-Making Space	Founder’s decisions are highly trusted	Any mistake is over-interpreted
Crisis Response	Every word and action can influence the market	Speaking is risky, staying silent is also risky

36Kr analysis points out that Xiaomi’s public opinion predicament is “the inevitable backlash after long-term imbalance in communication narrative”[5]:

1. Spotlight Effect
   : All resources are focused on Lei Jun, leaving the brand itself and other business lines’ independent narratives in the shadows
2. Cognitive Inertia
   : “Lei Jun = Xiaomi” causes any fluctuation to be infinitely amplified
3. Blessing Turns to Curse
   : The greater the traffic dividend, the more severe the potential backlash

As 36Kr stated: “This is not a matter of right or wrong, but an inevitable cost of business choices — just like if you choose to accelerate with a rocket, you have to accept the weightlessness when the fuel runs out”[5].

Conflict Dimension	Specific Manifestations
Blurred Boundary Between Decision-Making and Responsibility	The founder’s personal judgment highly overlaps with the company’s strategic decisions, leading to unclear responsibility boundaries
Strong Correlation Between Personal Reputation and Valuation	Lei Jun’s personal public opinion crisis directly translates into stock price fluctuations
Lack of Brand Independence	The Xiaomi brand lacks a value narrative system independent of the founder
Systemic Vulnerability in Risk Resistance	When the personal IP is attacked, the entire company falls into a passive position

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Despite the ongoing public opinion turmoil, the fundamentals of Xiaomi’s core businesses remain resilient:

• Global smartphone market share of approximately 12%
• Shipment volume of high-end models priced above US$800 increased by 56% year-on-year in the first 9 months of 2025
• Achieved significant breakthroughs in the ultra-high-end market priced above RMB 6,000[1][2]

• Ecosystem barrier built with over 600 compatible products
• Leading position in the global consumer IoT market

• According to the Q3 2025 financial report, SU7-related businesses contributed operating profit of RMB 700 million
• Achieved an industry breakthrough of “profitability upon mass production”
• 200,000 pre-orders for YU7 were placed within 3 minutes of its launch, and the locked order volume exceeded 240,000 units within 18 hours

Indicator	Assessment
Free Cash Flow (Latest Quarter)	RMB 26.274 billion
Debt Risk	Low Risk
Financial Stance	Aggressive (low depreciation/capital expenditure ratio)
P/E (TTM)	19.63x

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Indicator	Status	Interpretation
Trend Judgment	Sideways Consolidation	No clear upward or downward trend
MACD	Bearish Crossover Signal	Medium-term momentum is bearish
KDJ	K:31.1, D:35.9, J:21.5	Oversold Zone
Support Level	HK$37.54	Dense Trading Zone
Resistance Level	HK$40.37	20-Day Moving Average Position

• P/E: 19.63x (below historical average)
• P/B: 3.06x
• P/S: 1.93x

Referring to the valuation logic of peer companies in the technology hardware + smart auto + AI application track, Xiaomi’s current valuation is in the .

Risk Type	Specific Content
Public Opinion Risk	Negative events related to personal IP continue to ferment
Valuation Risk	Market repricing of expectations for the auto business
Share Reduction Risk	Large-scale share reduction plan by co-founder Lin Bin
Production Capacity Risk	Extended delivery cycle for YU7 may affect order conversion
Competition Risk	Intensified competition in the new energy vehicle market

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1. Nature of the Conflict
   : The deep binding of personal IP and corporate brand is a competitive advantage during the traffic dividend period, but it transforms into a systemic vulnerability during periods of negative public opinion. This is an inevitable cost of business model choice, rather than a management error.

2. Manifestations of the Conflict
   :
   • Lei Jun’s personal public opinion crisis directly impacts the company’s valuation
   • The brand lacks a value narrative system independent of the founder
   • Any controversy at the business level is over-interpreted as the founder’s judgment error

3. Potential Solutions
   :
   • Gradually establish independent brand narrative capabilities to reduce reliance on personal IP
   • Learn from professional agency models to manage personal IP risks through institutional norms
   • Use specific business data to demonstrate the rationality of multi-line operations and build value consensus

Time Horizon	Assessment
Short-term (1-3 months)	Under Pressure : Affected by public opinion turmoil and share reduction expectations, the stock price may continue to fluctuate in the HK$37-HK$40 range
Medium-term (3-6 months)	Wait and See : Pay attention to the delivery of YU7 GT and updated SU7 models
Long-term	Watch Closely : If the auto business continues to scale up, combined with valuation repair opportunities, an allocation window may emerge

: The current public opinion environment is complex, and negative events related to personal IP may further ferment. Investors are advised to closely monitor changes in public opinion and progress in business fundamentals.

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[1] Citibank: Xiaomi Auto’s 2026 Shipment Target is 550,000 Units, Falling Short of Expectations (https://tw.stock.yahoo.com/news/花旗-小米汽車今年出貨目標55萬輛-低於預期-053600862.html)

[2] Citibank: Xiaomi’s Electric Vehicle Deliveries Met Expectations Last Month, Maintain Buy Rating (https://wealth.firstbank.com.tw/investment-tips/trend-insight/news/news-detail?id={97F8AA7E-F44B-4ACD-9954-7E02003C7B4E})

[3] Xiaomi Turns from Decline to Rise Intraday; Watch Xiaomi Call Warrants with Dual Deployment (https://warrants.ubs.com/sc/education/article-detail/id/1406)

[4] Lei Jun’s Day of Fear of Rumors (https://m.36kr.com/p/3624779410748163)

[5] Turbulent Times: Xiaomi Accelerates “Bottoming Out” (https://m.36kr.com/p/3628589524403457)

[6] Trust Reconstruction, Value Deepening: Top 10 Brand Events of 2025 Reveal New Logic in the Traffic Era (https://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2025-12-26/doc-inhecipr0864865.shtml)

[0] Gilin AI Financial Database