Impact Assessment of Large-Scale Application of Autonomous Transportation Technology by SF Holding

Based on company announcements, research reports and industry data, I will conduct a systematic analysis from two dimensions:

and .

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SF Holding disclosed on the interactive platform that the company has cumulatively put into operation over 1,800 autonomous vehicles in the field of autonomous transportation[1], which are mainly applied in the following scenarios:

Application Scenario	Specific Description	Current Scale
Hub-Warehouse Feeder Transportation	Express delivery transfer from hub centers to various outlets	Over 800 units[2]
Warehouse-Delivery Area Connection	Short-distance connection from outlets to couriers’ pickup and delivery areas	Covering 38 cities[2]
Closed Park/Campus Delivery	Closed areas such as industrial parks, residential communities, campuses, etc.	Expanding steadily
Fresh Produce Origin Cold Chain Connection	Cold chain transportation from origin places such as orchards, fishing ports to outlets	Seasonal deployment

, the on-demand delivery platform under SF Holding, has an autonomous vehicle operation scale of 200 units, with its service network covering 38 major cities nationwide and monthly active routes exceeding 10,000[3].

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Based on industry calculation data (taking the Neolithic X3 model as the benchmark):

Cost Item	Traditional Fuel Vehicle	Autonomous Vehicle	Difference
Vehicle Purchase Cost	RMB 50,000	RMB 40,000	-20%
Monthly Labor Cost	RMB 5,000	RMB 0	-100%
Monthly Energy Consumption Cost	RMB 1,206	RMB 600	-50%
Monthly Maintenance Cost	RMB 300	RMB 200	-33%
Monthly FSD Subscription Fee	RMB 0	RMB 1,800	Newly Added
Monthly Depreciation	RMB 833	RMB 667	-20%
Total Monthly Cost	RMB 7,339	RMB 3,267	-55.5%

: Approximately can be saved per vehicle per month, with a cost savings ratio of [3].

According to the calculation model of Huayuan Securities[3]:

Year	Cumulative Operational Quantity	Annual Total Cost Reduction
2024	800 units	RMB 0.21 billion
2025	8,000 units	RMB 2.1 billion
2026(E)	15,000 units	RMB 4.14 billion
2027(E)	25,000 units	RMB 7.5 billion

: As the deployment scale increases from 800 units to 25,000 units, the annual cost reduction effect shows , reflecting significant scale effects.

SF Holding has approximately

[3]. Based on the calculation of RMB 5,100 saved per vehicle per month (including labor and fuel cost savings):

Penetration Rate	Number of Deployed Vehicles	Annual Profit Growth
10%	10,000 units	RMB 0.46 billion
30%	30,000 units	RMB 1.38 billion
50%	50,000 units	RMB 2.29 billion
80%	80,000 units	RMB 3.67 billion
100%	100,000 units	RMB 4.59 billion

If the penetration rate of autonomous delivery reaches 100%, SF Holding’s profits can be increased by

[4], equivalent to about 45% of the 2024 expected net profit (the expected 2024 net profit is approximately RMB 10.2 billion).

Financial Indicator	Current Level	Potential Improvement Space
Net Profit Margin	3.59%	Increased by 1.5-2.0 percentage points
Operating Profit Margin	4.68%	Increased to 6.5-7.5%
ROE	11.44%	Increased to 14-16%
Cost-to-Income Ratio	Approximately 95%	Decreased to 90-92%

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Competitiveness Dimension	Current Status	After Large-Scale Deployment of Autonomous Vehicles	Improvement Range
Cost Advantage	Medium	Significant	+25 points
Service Timeliness	Excellent	Better	+10 points
Brand Image	Excellent	Outstanding	+5 points
Technical Barrier	Relatively High	Very High	+25 points
Operational Efficiency	Good	Outstanding	+20 points

• According to calculations by Industrial Securities, SF Holding can
  reduce per-package cost by 70%
  through autonomous vehicle deployment[5]
• Compared with the 40% cost reduction rate of the Tongda courier group, SF Holding has obvious advantages[5]
• Gain greater pricing space in the price-sensitive e-commerce package market

• The Fengyi UAV platform has launched
  523 routes
  , with annual cargo transportation exceeding
  5.2 million pieces
  [5]
• Realize
  48-hour inter-provincial ultra-fast delivery
  of fresh produce and high-value small packages
• The ‘air-ground integrated’ collaborative network (feeder UAVs + end-point autonomous vehicles) forms a unique advantage

• SF Holding adopts the “investment + order” model to deeply bind with technology suppliers[5]
• Build a “human-machine collaboration” combination model (autonomous vehicles + riders)
• The autonomous vehicle dispatching system is deeply integrated with its own platform, forming a system-level advantage

Impact Area	Specific Performance
High-End Time-Sensitive Packages	Further consolidate market share, and enhance service premium capability
E-Commerce Packages	After cost reduction, have the ability to participate in price competition and seize market share
Instant Delivery	SF Instant Delivery’s business efficiency is improved, and competitiveness is strengthened
Cold Chain Logistics	Origin connection capability is enhanced, and market share in the fresh produce sector is expanded

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Factor	Description
Strong Certainty of Cost Reduction and Efficiency Improvement	High technical maturity, and pilot data is fully verified
Policy Support	Road rights have been opened in many regions, and operation licenses have been issued in 85 cities[4]
Large Penetration Space	The current penetration rate is only about 2%, with huge growth potential
Significant Synergistic Effect	Autonomous vehicles + UAVs form an end-to-end autonomous delivery system

Risk	Description
Capital Expenditure Pressure	Large-scale deployment requires continuous capital investment
Technology Iteration Risk	Autonomous driving technology is still evolving rapidly
Regulatory Policy Changes	Uncertainty exists in the road rights policy for autonomous vehicles
Replacement Rate Limitation	Affected by load capacity and timeliness requirements, the actual replacement rate is about 75%

According to the profit forecast of Guojin Securities[4]:

• 2025 PE: 19 times (downside potential compared to the current 23 times)
• Large-scale cost reduction from autonomous vehicles contributes approximately
  RMB 0.15-0.20 per share
  to EPS growth
• As the cost reduction effect becomes apparent, the valuation center is expected to move upward

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:

1. Cost Impact
   : Autonomous transportation technology can reduce SF Holding’s per-vehicle cost by 55%, with annual cost reduction space reaching RMB 2.1-7.5 billion (2025-2027). If 100% penetration is achieved, profits can be increased by approximately RMB 4.6 billion.

2. Competitiveness Impact
   : Form triple competitive advantages of "cost + timeliness + technology", strengthen the high-end market position, and expand the capability to compete in the e-commerce package market.

3. Financial Impact
   : It is expected that the net profit margin will increase by 1.5-2 percentage points, and ROE will be improved to 14-16%, providing solid support for the stock price.

4. Investment Value
   : The current penetration rate is only about 2%, on the eve of rapid volume expansion. It is recommended to pay attention to the progress of autonomous vehicle deployment and the realization of cost reduction effects.

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[1] SF Holding Investor Interactive Platform - Disclosure of Autonomous Vehicle Operation Data (https://ir.sf-express.com/)

[2] SF Holding 2024 Annual Report - Corporate Announcement (https://ir.sf-express.com/media/)

[3] Huayuan Securities - The Wave of Logistics Autonomous Vehicles Rises, New Opportunities for Industrial Transformation (https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202506131690215354_1.pdf)

[4] Guojin Securities - Analysis Report on Application Scenarios of Autonomous Logistics Vehicles (https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H301_AP202506121689391911_1.pdf)

[5] Cailianshe/STAR Market Daily - Special Report on Autonomous Delivery Industry (https://cls.cn/detail/2048623)

[6] SF Holding 2025 Mid-Year Investor Presentation Materials (https://ir.sf-express.com/media/lokf2io2/2025-interim-investor-presentation-c.pdf)