Analysis of the Strong Performance of Nata Opto-electronics (300346): Opportunities and Risks of the Domestic Photoresist Leader

Nata Opto-electronics (300346) performed strongly on January 7, 2026, with its stock price hitting a record high of RMB 55.19 and a single-day increase of 20%, successfully entering the strong stock pool. This strong performance is driven by the resonance of multiple factors[1][2].

On that day, the Semiconductor Materials and Equipment Index rose strongly by 6.28%, and the photoresist concept sector pulled up sharply. Multiple concept stocks including Huarong Chemical, Pulete, and Tonking New Materials hit the daily limit, while Nata Opto-electronics rose by more than 16%[1][2]. The overall surge of the semiconductor sector provided strong upward momentum for individual stocks.

According to JW Insights, Japan may have completely stopped shipping photoresist exports to China. The world’s two major photoresist giants, Shin-Etsu Chemical and Tokyo Ohka Kogyo (accounting for about 80% of the global market share combined), have suspended the supply of ArF photoresist to some Chinese wafer fabs[4]. Against this backdrop, the domestic substitution rate of domestic semiconductor equipment increased from 25% in 2025 to 35%[2]. Coupled with the announcement in January 2026 by the 3rd phase of the National Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund to inject RMB 2 billion into the semiconductor equipment field[2], the theme of domestic substitution continues to heat up.

Driven by the wave of artificial intelligence, the global semiconductor market hit a record high in 2025. Zheshang Securities predicts that it will continue to grow by 9% to US$760.7 billion in 2026[2]. The demand for capacity expansion of memory chips and advanced logic chips brings continuous growth momentum to semiconductor material enterprises.

From the analysis of technical indicators, Nata Opto-electronics is in a clear uptrend. The MACD indicator formed a golden cross, sending a buy signal; in the KDJ indicator, the K value is 63.0, D value is 45.0, and J value is 98.8, indicating that the uptrend continues; momentum indicators are bullish across the board, with multiple indicators including price_20, price_55, ma10_gt_ma20, ma_stack_5_10_20, vol_ok, roc3_ok, and macd_pos all showing positive signals[0].

The trading volume on that day reached 196 million shares, which is 3.6 times the average daily trading volume of 54.47 million shares, indicating extremely high capital participation[0]. The effective expansion of trading volume indicates a bullish market sentiment and strong buying power, providing sufficient liquidity support for the stock price rise.

The stock price has broken through the resistance level of RMB 55.19 to hit a record high, with the next target level at RMB 57.70 and the support level at RMB 45.89[0]. It should be noted that the RSI indicator is in the overbought zone, signaling potential short-term pullback pressure; the Beta value is -0.31, indicating that the stock has a certain degree of independence from the broader market trend[0].

As a leading domestic ArF photoresist enterprise, Nata Opto-electronics has significant competitive advantages. The company is the only domestic enterprise that has achieved mass production of 28nm ArF photoresist, with a product yield of 99.7%, and its technical indicators are comparable to imported products[4][5]. The 500-ton/year production line in Ningbo is expected to reach full production by the end of 2025, and the capacity expansion will bring economies of scale to the company[4]. In terms of customer expansion, the company’s ArF photoresist has passed the verification of 55nm logic chips, and has obtained orders from 3 12-inch wafer fabs, gradually consolidating its customer base[5].

According to the 2025 Q3 report, the company achieved operating revenue of RMB 1.884 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.83%, and its net profit attributable to parent company shareholders increased by 13.24% year-on-year[4]. The performance maintained a steady growth trend, providing financial support for continuous R&D investment and capacity expansion.

The current price-to-earnings ratio (PE) is as high as 124.59 times, and the price-to-book ratio (PB) is 11.08 times, significantly higher than the industry average[0]. The high valuation reflects the market’s optimistic expectations for the company’s photoresist business, but it also means that the stock price has largely discounted future growth. Once expectations are not met or market sentiment shifts, the company will face greater pullback pressure.

The strong performance of Nata Opto-electronics reveals the accelerated process of domestic substitution in the semiconductor industry. The current uncertainty in the international supply chain is reshaping the industrial pattern, and the risk of Japan’s photoresist supply cut has created a historical substitution window for domestic enterprises. From the data, it took less than one year for the domestic substitution rate to increase from 25% to 35%[2], a speed that exceeded market expectations, indicating that domestic semiconductor material enterprises are accelerating their breakthroughs in technical bottlenecks.

Capital flow data shows that the Semiconductor Equipment ETF (561980) attracted RMB 153 million in 5 trading days, with its net value hitting a new high since listing for consecutive days[3]. The top 10 heavyweight stocks of this ETF have a concentration ratio of nearly 80%, focusing on leading enterprises in sub-sectors such as Nata Opto-electronics[3]. The continuous inflow of institutional capital indicates that professional investors are optimistic about the long-term trend of independent and controllable semiconductor equipment. The Kaiyuan Electronics team pointed out that “independent and controllable semiconductor equipment may be one of the most certain trends during the 15th Five-Year Plan period”[3], and this judgment provides institutional endorsement for the long-term investment value of Nata Opto-electronics.

The case of Nata Opto-electronics reflects the structural changes taking place in the semiconductor materials field. Driven by AI, the semiconductor industry has entered a new boom cycle, and the global market size is expected to grow by 9% to US$760.7 billion in 2026[2]. Against this backdrop, the demand for ArF photoresist required for advanced processes will continue to rise, and the uncertainty on the supply side (Japan’s export controls) further amplifies the urgency of domestic substitution.

From the perspective of the industrial chain, photoresist is a key consumable in semiconductor manufacturing, with high technical barriers, long certification cycles, and strong customer stickiness. As the only domestic enterprise that has achieved mass production of 28nm ArF photoresist[4], Nata Opto-electronics has a first-mover advantage among domestic suppliers. Once downstream wafer fabs complete product verification and conduct large-scale procurement, a strong competitive barrier will be formed.

The PE ratio of 124.59 times is significantly higher than the industry average, and the stock price has largely discounted future performance growth[0]. In the current market environment, high-valuation individual stocks are sensitive to changes in risk appetite. If market sentiment shifts or the semiconductor sector experiences an overall pullback, Nata Opto-electronics may face greater adjustment pressure.

The RSI indicator is in the overbought zone, with a single-day increase of 20%[0], and there may be a short-term pullback demand caused by profit-taking. Investors need to pay attention to the sustainability of trading volume. If the stock rises with reduced volume, they should be alert to the risk of momentum exhaustion.

The news of Japan’s photoresist supply cut has not been fully confirmed by the official[4], and there are variables. If supply resumes or the intensity of the supply cut is lower than expected, the logic of domestic substitution may weaken, affecting market expectations.

The 500-ton/year production line in Ningbo is about to reach full production[4], and capacity expansion requires continuous growth in downstream demand to be absorbed. If the verification progress of domestic photoresist or the capacity expansion speed of downstream wafer fabs is lower than expected, it may put pressure on the company’s performance.

Momentum indicators are bullish across the board, trading volume has increased by 3.6 times, and capital sentiment is high[0], so the short-term strong trend is expected to continue. If the sector effect persists and trading volume remains high, investors can pay attention to the opportunity to buy on dips after a pullback confirmation.

The expectation of Japan’s supply cut coupled with the support from the National Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund has accelerated the domestic substitution process[2][4]. As a leading domestic ArF photoresist enterprise, Nata Opto-electronics is expected to fully benefit from this structural change. Key observation nodes include: the verification progress of downstream wafer fabs, capacity release status, order acquisition status, etc.

AI drives the continuous boom of the semiconductor industry, and the global market size is expected to maintain growth[2]. Against the backdrop of continuous evolution of advanced processes and increasing usage of photoresist, as a domestic technologically leading photoresist enterprise, Nata Opto-electronics has relatively long-term growth potential.

Currently in the performance vacuum period before the financial report release, the market has a higher tolerance for thematic investment. However, attention should be paid to: if trading volume cannot be maintained within 1-2 weeks, the short-term pullback risk will increase; within 1-3 months, it is necessary to track the progress of domestic substitution policies and the company’s business expansion; for a period of more than 6 months, it is necessary to verify whether performance growth can support the current valuation.

The strong performance of Nata Opto-electronics today is driven by the resonance of multiple factors including the surge in the semiconductor materials sector, expectations of Japan’s photoresist supply cut, support from the National Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund, and AI-driven industry boom[1][2][4]. As the only domestic enterprise that has achieved mass production of 28nm ArF photoresist, the company has significant technical and capacity advantages, and has obtained orders from 3 12-inch wafer fabs[4][5]. Its fundamentals provide support for mid-to-long-term performance.

Technically, indicators such as the MACD golden cross, bullish KDJ, and 3.6-fold increase in trading volume show sufficient short-term momentum[0], but the overbought RSI also signals a pullback risk. In terms of valuation, the PE ratio of 124.59 times is at an extremely high level[0], and the stock price has largely discounted future growth.

Currently in the momentum-up phase, the strong trend is expected to continue, but short-term adjustments need to be guarded against. It is recommended that investors pay attention to the sustainability of trading volume and whether the record high of RMB 55.19 can be effectively held. If a pullback with reduced volume occurs, short-term risks need to be guarded against; if trading volume remains strong, there is still upward space in the medium term.

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[0] Jinling Analysis Database - Technical Analysis and Fundamental Data

[1] Securities Times Network - Photoresist Concept Pulls Up Sharply

[2] Jiemian News - AI Drives 2025 Global Semiconductor Market to a Record High

[3] Sina Finance - Main Uptrend Begins! Institutions: Independent and Controllable Semiconductor Equipment

[4] JW Insights - Four “Little Giants” of Domestic Photoresist

[5] Fortune Account - Key Development Sectors for Next Year

[6] Jinling Analysis Database - Industry Sector Performance Data

[7] Eastmoney - Analysis of Leading Photoresist Resin Suppliers