XPeng-W (09868.HK) Comprehensive Analysis of a Hot Stock: Dual Game of New Product Launch and Senior Executive Resignation

This analysis is based on multi-dimensional market dynamics of XPeng-W (09868.HK), a hot stock listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. As of the close on January 7, 2026, XPeng-W closed at HK$78.05, down 4.09% (-HK$3.35) for the day, with a turnover of HK$1.326 billion [6]. This stock has recently become the focus of the market, mainly affected by dual catalysts - the two major events of global new model launch and core senior executive resignation have formed a distinct long-short game pattern [1][3][4].

From the timeline perspective, on Monday, January 5, 2025, the market first received news of Vice President Chen Yonghai’s resignation. As a core figure in XPeng’s product system after He Xiaopeng, his resignation triggered a 4.6% drop in the stock’s closing price that day [3][4]. Then on January 6, news that the new P7+ had completed trial production at the Graz, Austria plant and was about to go on sale stimulated a 4.11% rebound in the stock price [2]. On Wednesday, January 7, long and short parties continued to game, with the stock price fluctuating between HK$76.65 and HK$79.00, and finally closing near the intraday low [6]. It is worth noting that on January 2, the stock formed a “golden cross” technical pattern, where the short-term moving average crossed above the long-term moving average, which is regarded as a short-term buy signal [5].

As a representative enterprise in the intelligent new energy vehicle sector in China, XPeng’s fundamentals show typical characteristics of a new force carmaker. From a valuation perspective, the company’s current market capitalization is approximately HK$149.2 billion, with a price-to-book ratio of about 4.48x, and a price-to-earnings ratio of -46.82x due to continuous losses [6]. Although net profit remains negative, the company’s 2025 delivery volume hit a record high of 429,400 units, a year-on-year increase of 126%, gross margin improved to 17.3%, EBITDA reached HK$1.86 billion, and operating cash flow has improved [6]. These data indicate that although the company has not achieved stable profitability, its business scale is expanding rapidly, and unit economic efficiency is gradually optimizing.

Financial data shows that the company’s return on assets is -3.3% and return on equity is -9.2%, reflecting that the capital utilization efficiency has not yet reached an ideal state at the current stage [6]. Northeast Securities pointed out that XPeng is undergoing a strategic transformation from a traditional automaker to a “physical AI” company, and this transformation direction may reshape the company’s long-term value creation capability [9]. From a revenue perspective, the company’s annualized revenue reaches HK$70.57 billion, and its business scale is already considerable [6].

The 2026 XPeng P7+ has completed trial production at the Graz, Austria plant, which has a century of manufacturing heritage and is the world’s only manufacturer of Mercedes-Benz G-Class models [1]. The new model will first go on sale in China on January 8 and launch in the European market on January 9. This global simultaneous launch strategy shows XPeng’s strategic emphasis on overseas markets [1]. At the same time, the XPeng G7 is launched simultaneously. Both models adopt a “one car, two power sources” design, providing both extended-range and pure electric versions to meet different market demands [1].

Technically, the new models are equipped with the second-generation VLA advanced driver-assistance large model, with three Turing AI chips, and computing power as high as 2250TOPS, which is at a leading position in the industry [1]. Goldman Sachs expressed optimism about XPeng’s overseas business layout in its latest research report, but also warned of the risk of continued intensification of competition in the mainland automotive industry in 2026 [8]. CLSA expects that the new round of auto subsidy policies will benefit models priced at RMB 150,000, which is expected to release consumer purchase demand [10].

The resignation of Vice President Chen Yonghai is an important factor affecting the stock price recently. As He Xiaopeng’s long-time partner, Chen Yonghai played a core role in XPeng’s product system. After news of his resignation was exposed on January 5, it directly caused a 4.6% drop in the closing price of the H-share that day, and a 2.8% drop in pre-market trading of the U.S. share [3][4]. At present, this position is temporarily managed by President Wang Fengying, and the market needs to continue to pay attention to management stability and strategic execution continuity [3][4]. For an enterprise in a period of intensive product launches, changes in core senior executives may have short-term impacts on product planning rhythm and market execution capabilities.

From a technical analysis perspective, XPeng-W has shown an obvious range-bound oscillation pattern recently. On January 7, the stock price fluctuated between HK$76.65 and HK$79.00, with an amplitude of 2.94%, and 17.09 million shares were traded, which was slightly lower than the three-month average trading volume (19.77 million shares) [6]. It is worth noting that the RSI (14) indicator is at 39.36, approaching the oversold zone, and there may be a demand for a technical rebound in the short term [6].

The “golden cross” pattern that appeared on January 2 is an important technical signal, which is usually regarded as a short-term buy signal [5]. However, this signal and the negative news of the executive resignation have formed a temporary divergence between technicals and fundamentals. From the perspective of key price levels, the current price of HK$78.05 is between the support level of HK$76.65 and the resistance level of HK$81.00. The strong resistance level above is at the psychological threshold of HK$85, and the strong support level below is at the previous low of HK$65 [6].

The current long-short game of XPeng-W essentially reflects two completely different cognitive paths of the market towards the new energy vehicle industry. The bullish logic is built on three pillars: first, the upward momentum of the product cycle brought by the new model launch; second, the explosive 126% year-on-year growth in 2025 delivery volume verifies the strong market demand; third, the analysts’ strong buy rating ratio of 27:0 and 49% potential upside provide sufficient safety margin [6][9].

The bearish logic focuses on three core concerns: first, the resignation of core senior executives may shake the stability of the product system, which is particularly sensitive during the period of intensive product launches; second, the industry price war continues to intensify, with strong competitors such as BYD and Tesla continuing to exert pressure, making profit margin pressure inevitable; third, the current valuation has rebounded about 70% from the 52-week low, and the price-to-book ratio of 4.48x is at a relatively high level in the industry, so the risk of valuation correction deserves attention [6][8][11].

The core logic behind Northeast Securities’ initial “Buy” rating for XPeng-W is that the company is transforming from a traditional automaker to a “physical AI” company [9]. The differentiated value of this strategic positioning is reflected in three dimensions: first, technological leadership, with the 2250TOPS computing power chip configuration being top-tier in mass-produced models; second, global manufacturing capabilities, as cooperation with the Graz, Austria plant enables its products to meet strict European automotive safety standards; third, completeness of the product matrix, with the P7+ and G7 covering the two mainstream markets of sedans and SUVs, and the “one car, two power sources” design caters to the dual needs of users with range anxiety and users with environmental protection concepts [1].

The Hong Kong Stock Exchange auto sector fell across the board today, and institutions generally expect that China’s auto market sales may decline in 2026 [11]. This industry background adds uncertainty to XPeng’s bullish logic. Goldman Sachs clearly pointed out that competition in the mainland automotive industry will continue in 2026, which means that even if XPeng can maintain its market share, the room for improvement in its profit margin may be squeezed by the industry-wide price war [8]. Investors need to recognize that against the background of slowing total industry growth, competition in the new energy vehicle market will shift from incremental competition to stock game, which puts higher efficiency requirements on all participants.

: The resignation of Chen Yonghai, a core figure in the product system, may have a substantive impact on product planning and execution continuity [3][4]. The market needs to closely follow subsequent management adjustment dynamics and whether the new leadership can maintain the product development rhythm and market response capability.

: Despite strong delivery volume growth, the company is still in a loss-making state, with a price-to-earnings ratio of -46.82x [6]. When it can achieve stable profitability and positive cash flow is a key factor determining whether the valuation can be supported. Investors should pay attention to the next financial report to be released on March 23, looking for evidence of a clearer profit path [6].

: The stock price has rebounded about 70% from its 52-week low of HK$45.75, and the current valuation is at a relatively high level in the industry [6]. If market sentiment shifts or industry competition intensifies beyond expectations, the valuation may face the risk of compression.

: The price war in China’s new energy vehicle market continues, with strong competitors such as BYD and Tesla continuing to exert pressure [8][11]. Institutions expect that auto market sales will decline in 2026, industry integration may accelerate, and some less competitive enterprises may be eliminated.

: Changes in auto subsidy policies may affect terminal demand. CLSA pointed out that the new round of subsidy policies is beneficial to models priced at RMB 150,000, but there is uncertainty about the policy’s continuity and subsidy intensity [10].

: The P7+ will go on sale on January 8, and the G7 will be launched simultaneously. The growth momentum brought by the new product cycle deserves attention [1]. If the market feedback is positive after the launch and sales exceed expectations, the stock price may receive new catalytic momentum.

: The advanced driver-assistance system with 2250TOPS computing power is the company’s core competitive advantage in the intelligent field [1]. As consumers’ demand for intelligent driving functions increases, this technological barrier is expected to be converted into market share and pricing power.

: The development of the European market provides a new growth pole for XPeng. The century-old manufacturing heritage and global unified safety standards of the Graz, Austria plant have laid a foundation for the products to enter the European high-end market [1].

: 27 analysts have given a Buy rating, with 0 Sell ratings. The 12-month average target price of HK$115.77 implies 49% upside potential compared to the current price [6]. This highly consistent positive rating reflects professional institutions’ recognition of the company’s fundamentals.

Short-term (1-2 weeks): The new model launch on January 8 is the first key time node, and the market will closely pay attention to the launch pricing and market feedback. If sales data exceed expectations, it may push the stock price to break through the resistance level; if it falls short of expectations, it is necessary to be alert to the profit-taking pressure after the good news is realized.

Mid-term (1-3 months): The delivery data in late January 2026 will be an important indicator to verify the product’s market competitiveness. The financial report to be released on March 23 will provide the latest financial status and profit outlook information [6].

XPeng-W (09868.HK) has recently become a hot stock on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with the core driver coming from the dual game of new model launch and executive resignation. The company’s latest closing price is HK$78.05, down 4.09% for the day, with a turnover of HK$1.326 billion. The current stock price has rebounded about 70% from its 52-week low [6].

In terms of fundamentals, 2025 delivery volume hit a record high of 429,400 units, a year-on-year increase of 126%, with gross margin improved to 17.3%, but the company is still in a loss-making state (price-to-earnings ratio of -46.82x) [6]. From a technical perspective, a “golden cross” buy signal appeared on January 2, and the RSI (14) is at 39.36, on the edge of oversold, so there may be a demand for a technical rebound in the short term [5][6].

Positive catalysts include: The 2026 XPeng P7+ has completed trial production at the Graz, Austria plant, and will first go on sale in China on January 8 and launch in the European market on January 9; the models are equipped with the second-generation VLA advanced driver-assistance large model with 2250TOPS computing power; 27 analysts have given a Buy rating, with the 12-month average target price of HK$115.77 implying 49% upside potential [1][6][9].

Negative catalysts include: Core Vice President Chen Yonghai resigned on January 5. As He Xiaopeng’s long-time partner and a core figure in XPeng’s product system, the H-share closed down 4.6% on the day the resignation news was exposed; the industry price war continues, and institutions expect China’s auto market sales to decline in 2026 [3][4][8][11].

In terms of key price levels, the current price of HK$78.05 is between the support level of HK$76.65 and the resistance level of HK$81.00, with strong support below at the previous low of HK$65 [6]. The next financial report will be released on March 23, 2026, when the company will provide the latest financial status and business outlook [6].

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: This report is compiled and analyzed based on public information and does not constitute investment advice. Stock investment involves risks, and past performance does not represent future returns. Investors should make independent judgments and decisions based on their own risk tolerance.