Ganfeng Lithium (01772.HK) Hot Analysis: Surge in Lithium Carbonate Futures Drives Stock Price Higher, Valuation Pullback Risks Warrant Caution

This analysis is compiled based on reports from multiple financial media including Investing.com [1], Gelonghui [2], The Paper [3], and Securities Times [4]. The event occurred between January 6 and 7, 2026, when Ganfeng Lithium (01772.HK) became a hot target in the Hong Kong stock market due to the skyrocketing price of lithium carbonate futures.

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On January 6, 2026, the lithium carbonate futures market saw a strong rally. The leading contract LC2506 surged by over 8%, breaking the key resistance level of RMB130,000/ton, and hit an intraday high of RMB137,760/ton, a two-year high [1][2]. This price trend continued the strong performance of breaking RMB130,000/ton on December 26, 2025, and the cumulative increase in lithium carbonate prices so far this year has reached nearly 70% [3].

The spot market also showed an upward trend simultaneously, with the quotation for battery-grade lithium carbonate reaching the range of RMB117,000-RMB122,000/ton [4]. The linked rise in futures and spot prices reflects the market’s strong expectation of improved supply and demand pattern of lithium carbonate. Institutional investors generally regard lithium carbonate as the “undisputed king” variety in the new energy industry chain, and the expectation of a long squeeze continues to heat up [2].

Driven by the rise in lithium carbonate futures, the non-ferrous metals sector of Hong Kong stocks opened higher collectively on January 6. Ganfeng Lithium (01772.HK) performed strongly with a gain of over 4%, while Tianqi Lithium (09696.HK) also rose by over 3% [1]. The sector effect is significant, and capital continues to flow into lithium-related targets.

Looking at trading volume data, the latest trading volume of Ganfeng Lithium reached 3.01 million shares, with a 3-month average trading volume of 24.2 million shares, and the volume/average ratio is about 12.4%, indicating relatively high short-term trading activity [0]. The year-to-date return has reached 2.6%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index’s 1.38%; the 52-week return is as high as 177.04%, significantly surpassing the Hang Seng Index’s 25.28% increase [0].

On January 5, 2026, the State Council issued the “Notice on the Action Plan for Comprehensive Management of Solid Waste”, which clearly proposes to promote the integrated construction of non-ferrous metal mining and beneficiation, and in principle will no longer approve beneficiation projects without self-built mines [1]. This policy orientation is beneficial to leading enterprises with their own mines, and Ganfeng Lithium, as a leading domestic lithium resource enterprise, is expected to fully benefit from it.

Lithium carbonate inventories have been destocked for 19 consecutive weeks, and the inventory volume has dropped to 109,800 tons, hitting a new low since February 2025 [3][4]. The continuous decline in inventories reflects the improvement of supply and demand relations, which effectively supports the lithium carbonate price. The total scheduled production of China’s lithium battery market in January 2026 was about 210 GWh, a 4.5% month-on-month decrease, but still performed better than market expectations [3].

The surge in energy storage demand has further strengthened the bullish logic for lithium carbonate. Global energy storage lithium battery shipments reached 620 GWh in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 77%, and is expected to reach 960 GWh in 2026, a year-on-year increase of 54.8% [3]. The dual drive of new energy vehicles and energy storage demand provides solid fundamental support for the lithium carbonate price.

From a technical indicator perspective, Ganfeng Lithium’s RSI (14) is in the range of 44.61-50.79, showing a neutral to weak technical posture, and has not entered the overbought zone [0]. The current price is about HK$57.30, which is in the upper-middle range of the 52-week price interval (HK$16.22-HK$63.35) [0]. The Beta coefficient is 0.98, indicating that its volatility is basically consistent with the broader market [0].

It is worth noting that the price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) is -83.30, indicating that the company is currently unprofitable; the price-to-book ratio (P/B) is in the range of 2.96-2.98, which is at a reasonable level in the industry [0]. The company’s market capitalization reaches HK$139 billion-HK$147.69 billion, and its revenue scale is approximately US$19.61 billion [0].

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Although the upward trend of lithium carbonate prices is clear, there is a significant divergence between the overall analyst ratings and the current stock price. 12 analysts gave a “Buy” rating, and 3 gave a “Sell” rating, but the 12-month average target price is only HK$46.31 [0]. Based on the current stock price of about HK$57.30, the stock price has already been about 24% higher than the average target price set by analysts, with potential pullback space.

The huge gap between the highest target price of HK$79.37 and the lowest target price of HK$18.92 reflects significant differences among analysts in their judgments on the company’s prospects [0]. Investors need to carefully assess whether the current price has fully reflected the expectations of improved fundamentals.

On December 30, 2025, the company received a prosecution transfer notice from the Yichun Municipal Public Security Bureau, suspected of unit crime of insider trading [5]. This legal risk event may have a negative impact on the company’s reputation and stock price, but the specific degree of impact depends on the progress of subsequent judicial procedures. Investors should closely follow relevant announcements and timely assess their risk exposure.

While lithium carbonate prices are rising rapidly, mid-stream lithium iron phosphate enterprises are facing cost pressures. Leading enterprises such as Hunan Yuneng, Wanrun New Energy, and Defang Nano have successively announced maintenance and production reduction plans [3]. The game between upstream and downstream of the industry chain may cause periodic disturbances to the lithium carbonate price, and investors need to be wary of the risk of expectation gap pullback [4].

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Risk Type	Specific Description	Potential Impact
Valuation Pullback Risk	The current stock price is about 24% higher than the average target price set by analysts	May trigger a technical pullback
Legal Risk	Suspected of unit crime of insider trading	Affects the company’s reputation and stock price
Price Volatility Risk	Strong game sentiment in the futures market	Sharp short-term price fluctuations
Mid-stream Production Reduction Risk	Lithium iron phosphate enterprises carry out maintenance and production reduction	Affects lithium carbonate demand expectations
Geopolitical Risk	Uncertainties exist in overseas lithium mining projects	Disturbances on the supply side

Opportunity Type	Analysis	Trigger Conditions
Continuous Rise in Lithium Carbonate Prices	Institutions predict that the 2026 price center will move upward, and extreme market conditions may hit RMB150,000/ton [2][3]	Sustained tight supply and demand
Policy Benefits Realization	Solid waste management policies promote industry integration	Market share expansion of leading enterprises
Outbreak of Energy Storage Demand	The demand for energy storage lithium batteries is expected to increase by 54.8% year-on-year in 2026 [3]	Accelerated installation of new energy

:

• HK$54: Near the current price, a dense trading zone
• HK$51.95: Closing price on January 2, short-term support
• HK$50: Near the 50-day moving average
• HK$46.31: Analysts’ average target price

:

• HK$57-HK$58: Current price range
• HK$60: Integer level
• HK$63.35: 52-week high

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Ganfeng Lithium (01772.HK) has recently emerged as a hot target in the Hong Kong stock market, with the core driver being the skyrocketing price of lithium carbonate futures. On January 6, the leading contract broke the RMB130,000/ton mark to hit a two-year high. Industry fundamentals continue to improve, with lithium carbonate inventories declining for 19 consecutive weeks, surging energy storage demand, and favorable policy support.

However, the current stock price is about 24% higher than the average target price set by analysts, and technical indicators show a neutral to weak posture, so investors need to be alert to the risk of valuation pullback. They also need to closely monitor the legal risk event of the company being suspected of insider trading. Production reduction in the mid-stream of the industry chain may cause periodic disturbances to the demand side.

From a long-term perspective, as a key raw material in the new energy industry chain, the supply and demand pattern of lithium carbonate is expected to continue to improve. However, short-term changes in futures market sentiment may lead to increased stock price volatility. Investors should pay attention to layout opportunities after pullbacks and do a good job in risk management.

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[0] Yahoo Finance - Ganfeng Lithium (1772.HK)

[1] Investing.com - Hong Kong Stock Market Movement | Lithium Carbonate Futures Surge, Ganfeng Lithium Rises Over 4%

[2] Gelonghui - Lithium Carbonate Surges at the Start of the Year, How Much Room is Left in 2026?

[3] The Paper - Lithium Prices Skyrocket, But Mid-stream Giants Hit the “Pause Button” One After Another!

[4] Securities Times - Multiple Positive News Boosts, Lithium Carbonate Futures Prices Welcome a “Good Start”

[5] Securities Times - Relevant Announcements and Q&A of Ganfeng Lithium