CATL (03750.HK) Hong Kong Hot Stock Analysis: Signed 5-Year Strategic Agreement with NIO, Built Over 1,300 Battery Swap Stations in the First Year of Swap Business

Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited (CATL) signed a 5-year comprehensive deepened strategic cooperation agreement with NIO in Hefei, Anhui on January 6, 2026. This major event has become the core catalyst driving CATL’s Hong Kong stock to become a hot stock recently [1][2][3][4]. The signing of the agreement was witnessed by Zeng Yuqun, Founder, Chairman and CEO of CATL, and William Li, Founder, Chairman and CEO of NIO, marking the upgrade of the relationship between the two parties from a traditional battery supply relationship to full ecological in-depth strategic synergy [4].

From the perspective of technological cooperation, the two parties carry out special joint development around long-life batteries and battery swap adaptation technologies, promote multi-technical route collaboration and priority implementation of new technologies, aiming to comprehensively enhance the comprehensive competitiveness of products. In terms of ecological cooperation, the two parties jointly promote the formulation of battery swap technical standards and the sharing of battery swap network resources, deepen collaboration under business models such as Battery as a Service (BaaS), and build an open and shared battery swap industry ecosystem. In terms of market cooperation, the two parties will strengthen joint brand promotion in domestic and overseas markets, and jointly enhance global market influence and market share [1][2][3].

CATL released its annual results of the battery swap business on January 3, 2026, showing that the company has achieved faster-than-expected large-scale deployment in the battery swap field. The “Chocolate Battery Swap” project for convenient energy replenishment of passenger vehicles has built 1,020 battery swap stations, covering 45 cities; the “Qiji Battery Swap” project for heavy-duty truck trunk logistics has built 305 battery swap stations, covering 26 provinces. The two scenarios have built a total of 1,325 battery swap stations, achieving large-scale deployment in the first year [5].

In 2026, the company has set an aggressive expansion target: a total of nearly 4,000 battery swap stations will be built. Among them, the Chocolate Battery Swap will have over 3,000 stations in more than 140 cities, starting the construction of highway networks and opening up franchise; the Qiji Battery Swap will reach 900 stations in total, expanding the trunk network to a “Five Horizontal and Five Vertical” pattern. The long-term plan is even more ambitious: the Chocolate Battery Swap aims to build 30,000 battery swap stations, and the Qiji Battery Swap plans to build an “Eight Horizontal and Ten Vertical” green network covering 80% of the country’s trunk transportation capacity by 2030 [5]. This expansion speed significantly exceeds market expectations, highlighting CATL’s strategic determination and execution capability in the battery swap ecosystem.

Based on trading data from the past 30 trading days, CATL’s A-share (300750.SZ) has shown a range-bound trend [0]. During this period, the opening price was RMB 375.00, the closing price was RMB 371.01, the highest price reached RMB 398.86, and the lowest price fell to RMB 366.16, with an overall decline of 1.06%. The average daily trading volume reached 22.42 million shares, the 20-day moving average was at RMB 377.27, and the intraday volatility was 1.38%. From the technical pattern, the stock price has pulled back from the high of RMB 398.86 to around RMB 371, indicating certain short-term correction pressure [0].

In the Hong Kong market, the current stock price of 03750.HK is approximately HK$515, with a year-to-date increase of 1.88%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index over the same period. The stock price has risen by 73.99% in the past year, significantly surpassing the market’s 21.65% increase [6]. The stock price is currently at the middle-to-high level of the 52-week range (HK$291.00 - HK$614.00), with an intraday volatility range of HK$504.00 - HK$516.50. Technical analysis shows that the immediate resistance level is at the psychological threshold of HK$520, and the strong resistance levels are at HK$550 and HK$614 (52-week high); the immediate support level is at HK$505, the key support level is at HK$490, and the strong support level is at HK$450 [0].

Financial analysis shows that CATL adopts a conservative financial policy, with a high depreciation/capital expenditure ratio, low debt risk, and the latest annual free cash flow reaching RMB 65.8 billion, with an overall sound financial situation [0].

From the valuation perspective, the DCF valuation model shows large scenario differences: the conservative scenario valuation is RMB 336.26, 9.4% lower than the current price; the neutral scenario valuation reaches RMB 3,972.15, 970.6% higher than the current price; the optimistic scenario valuation is RMB 6,247.74, 1,584.0% higher than the current price; the weighted average valuation is RMB 3,518.72, 848.4% higher than the current price [0]. This model shows a huge difference between the extremely optimistic and conservative scenarios, and investors need to interpret the valuation assumptions carefully. The current trailing twelve months (TTM) price-to-earnings ratio of 32.25x is in the historical high range, and the market may have fully reflected optimistic expectations.

Market sentiment shows obvious long-short divergence characteristics. On one hand, positive factors such as deepened strategic cooperation, better-than-expected battery swap business, and index allocation benefits support market confidence; on the other hand, margin trading/short selling data shows that the short selling amount of CATL’s Hong Kong stock is approximately HK$66.29 million, with a ratio as high as 29.182%, reflecting that some professional investors are cautious about the current valuation [7]. In December 2025, CATL was included in the FTSE All-World Index, which will attract passive capital allocation and form certain positive support [8].

The 5-year agreement between CATL and NIO marks a fundamental transformation in the cooperation model between power battery enterprises and vehicle enterprises. The traditional supply-demand relationship is evolving into a deep synergy model of “joint technology research + ecological co-construction + market expansion”, which has three strategic implications. First, by binding with NIO, a high-end smart electric vehicle brand, CATL ensures the long-term order stability of core customers, while further extending its influence in the energy replenishment ecosystem through NIO’s battery swap network. Second, the joint development of long-life batteries directly addresses the pain points of electric vehicle battery attenuation and residual value, and is expected to establish differentiated competitive advantages through technological breakthroughs. Third, if the co-construction and sharing strategy of the battery swap network can form industry standards, CATL will upgrade from a pure battery supplier to a core operator of new energy transportation infrastructure.

CATL’s large-scale investment in the battery swap field reflects its far-reaching layout for the future energy service ecosystem. From 1,325 stations in the first year to the target of nearly 4,000 stations in 2026, and then to the long-term plan of 30,000 stations, this expansion rhythm means that the company is undergoing a strategic transformation from a “battery manufacturer” to an “energy service operator”. The core value of the battery swap business lies not only in creating new revenue sources, but also in building a user-sticky ecosystem: once the battery swap network forms scale effect, it will form a moat that is difficult for competitors to replicate. However, this strategy also faces significant challenges, including heavy asset operation pressure, uncertainty in return cycle, and competitive relationship with existing charging infrastructure.

The 29.182% short selling ratio and the extreme scenario difference in the DCF valuation model together reveal the deep divergence in the market’s view of CATL. This divergence essentially reflects the differences in investors’ judgments on two core issues: first, whether the business model of the battery swap business can be viable and contribute substantial profits; second, the ceiling of the power battery industry and the evolution of the competitive pattern. At the current 32x P/E ratio level, the market seems to have priced in high growth expectations, and any execution deviation or industry negative news may trigger large fluctuations in the stock price.

: The current TTM P/E ratio of 32.25x is in the historical high range, and the stock price may have fully reflected optimistic expectations. The DCF model shows a huge difference between the neutral scenario valuation and the conservative scenario, and the stock price may face significant correction pressure when market sentiment shifts [0].

: As a capital-intensive business, the construction of battery swap stations requires continuous large-scale investment, while the profit model has not been fully verified. The long-term investment return is uncertain, which may affect the company’s cash flow and asset-liability ratio [0].

: Competitors such as BYD Fudi Battery and CALB are continuously making efforts, and industry price competition may intensify, affecting CATL’s profit margin level.

: The A-share price has pulled back from the high of RMB 398.86 to around RMB 371, and may continue to test the lower support level in the short term.

: The 29.182% short selling ratio of Hong Kong stock shows obvious divergence among professional investors, which may exacerbate short-term stock price volatility [7].

: The 5-year agreement between CATL and NIO covers multi-dimensional cooperation in technology, ecology and market. With the gradual implementation of the agreement terms, it is expected to continuously release cooperation dividends.

: If the 2026 target of nearly 4,000 battery swap stations can be achieved, it will significantly enhance the company’s market share and ecological influence in the energy replenishment field [5].

: Being included in the FTSE All-World Index will attract continuous inflow of passive capital, providing incremental capital support for the stock price [8].

: If the FY2024 financial report to be released on February 25, 2026 shows strong performance, it may become a catalyst for a new round of stock price increase.

In the short term (1-2 weeks), it is necessary to pay attention to the stock price performance in the range of HK$505 - HK$520, as well as the possible release of the FY2024 earnings preview in late January. In the medium term (1-3 months), the construction progress of battery swap stations and the substantial implementation of cooperation with NIO will become key observation points. In the long term (full year of 2026), the business model verification and financial contribution of the battery swap business will be the core factors determining valuation reconstruction.

CATL (03750.HK) has become a hot Hong Kong stock mainly driven by the following factors: signed a 5-year strategic cooperation agreement with NIO covering core technology areas such as long-life batteries and battery swap networks, marking the upgrade of the relationship between the two parties from supply cooperation to ecological synergy [1][2][3][4]; built 1,325 battery swap stations in the first year of the battery swap business, with a target of nearly 4,000 stations in 2026, and the expansion speed exceeds market expectations [5]; the stock price has outperformed the market year-to-date, with a nearly 74% increase in the past year [6]; being included in the FTSE All-World Index brings expectations of capital inflow [8].

Financial fundamentals show that the company adopts a conservative financial policy, with low debt risk and sufficient free cash flow [0]. However, the current valuation is at a historical high, and the 29.182% short selling ratio of Hong Kong stock shows obvious market divergence [7]. The DCF valuation model has huge scenario differences, and investors need to interpret it carefully. Technically, the A-share is under short-term pressure, while the Hong Kong stock is at the middle-to-high level of the 52-week range, with key support levels in the range of HK$490 - HK$505.

The upcoming release of the FY2024 financial report on February 25, the construction progress of battery swap stations, and the substantial implementation of cooperation with NIO will be the key catalysts affecting short-term stock price performance. The long-term business verification and financial contribution of the battery swap business will be the core factors determining valuation reconstruction. Investors should pay close attention to the above key time nodes and make prudent decisions combined with their own risk preferences.