Hot Stock Analysis of Juzi Bio (02367.HK): Tug-of-War Between Share Repurchase Support and Slumping Sales

Juzi Bio Holdings Limited (02367.HK) has recently become a hot topic in the Hong Kong stock market. The company holds a leading position in the functional skincare and medical dressings sectors, with core brands including KeyiMei, KeyiJin, etc. According to public market information, the company conducted consecutive share repurchases on January 5 and 6, 2026, spending HK$13.58 million and HK$13.6693 million respectively to repurchase 400,000 shares each [1][2][3]. Prior to this, the company announced a large-scale repurchase program in December 2025, proposing to repurchase no more than approximately 104 million shares (accounting for 10% of issued shares). As of early 2026, the cumulative repurchase amount had reached HK$209.8 million, with approximately 6 million shares repurchased. This continuous repurchase action has become the direct catalyst for market attention.

However, in stark contrast to the repurchase actions, the company’s share price has continued to face pressure. Juzi Bio’s share price has plummeted from a high of HK$85.14 in May 2025 to the recent range of HK$33.84-HK$34.48, representing a nearly 60% drop [4]. Behind this sharp adjustment is a significant decline in core sales data: during the Double 11 period, KeyiMei’s sales on Tmall fell 20% year-on-year, and plummeted 50% on Douyin, with full-channel GMV down 25.5% [4]. The falsification of sales data led multiple institutions to sharply lower their profit forecasts, with an average reduction of over 30%, cutting the target price from HK$64 to HK$34.5 and downgrading the rating to “Neutral” [4].

From the perspective of stock price trends, Juzi Bio has experienced a typical “expectation falsification” process. After hitting an all-time high of HK$85.14 in May 2025, the share price entered a continuous downward channel. On November 20, the share price once fell to a stage low of HK$35.14, and then fluctuated repeatedly in the range of HK$36-HK$40. Notably, after the repurchase plan was announced on December 2, the share price surged 8.53% that day, showing a positive market reaction to the repurchase news [4]. However, this rebound was only pulse-like—on the following day (December 3), the share price fell 3.58%, and continued to decline thereafter. This indicates that against the backdrop of deteriorating sales data and performance expectations, simple repurchase measures are difficult to reverse the medium-term downward trend.

From the repurchase price range (HK$33.84-HK$34.48), the “value bottom” recognized by the company’s management is being tested by the market. The current share price has approached or even fallen below the company’s repurchase cost, which not only reflects the company’s determination to support its share price but also reflects a fundamental shift in the market’s expectations for the company’s fundamentals.

The market currently has obvious differences on Juzi Bio, with both bulls and bears holding their own views.

First, the decline in core brand sales data directly falsifies the company’s previous high-growth narrative. The revenue growth rate plummeted from 57.2% for the full year of 2024 to 22.5% in the first half of 2025, a halving of growth that has raised market concerns [4]. Second, industry competition has intensified significantly—peer competitors such as Jinbo Bio have increased marketing investment, and traditional beauty giants are also actively laying out in the functional skincare track, making market share competition increasingly fierce [6]. Third, compliance disputes continue to ferment: in September 2025, Bloomage Biotechnology publicly accused Juzi Bio, triggering market doubts about industry compliance and negatively impacting brand image [6]. In addition, cooperation with top influencers has contracted by more than 50%, significantly restricting online channel sales.

Despite slowing growth, Juzi Bio still achieved revenue of RMB 3.11 billion (up 22.5% year-on-year) and net profit attributable to parent company of RMB 1.182 billion (up 20.2% year-on-year) in the first half of 2025 [6]. The company holds exclusive recombinant collagen technology, which was granted a national patent in 2005 and won the National Technology Invention Award (Second Class) in 2013, with solid technological barriers [7]. In October 2025, the company was approved for the first domestic recombinant Type I collagen injection, with a rich pipeline of new products, and plans to expand terminal coverage in 2026 [6]. In November, the company added five exclusive patent authorizations in the fields of recombinant collagen and ginsenosides, continuing to strengthen its R&D capabilities [6].

From a fundamental perspective, Juzi Bio maintains a leading position in the collagen professional skincare sector. According to Frost & Sullivan data, the company was the largest collagen professional skincare enterprise in China between 2019-2021. The company has outstanding profitability, with gross profit margin maintained in the range of 80%-85% and net profit margin of approximately 50%, leading peers [6].

In terms of capacity expansion, the company plans to build a production line with an annual output of 2,400 tons of recombinant collagen, laying the foundation for future growth [6]. In terms of channel coverage, the company has covered over 1,000 medical institutions and pharmacies offline, and has achieved full-channel layout on platforms such as Tmall and Douyin online.

The current market shows the following risk signals worthy of investors’ attention:

The sharp decline in revenue growth reflects changes in market demand or competitive landscape, and high growth expectations are facing pressure of falsification. New entrants to the industry are increasing, traditional beauty giants are accelerating their layout, and market share may be eroded. The impact of Bloomage Biotechnology’s accusation incident continues, which may cause long-term damage to brand reputation. Cooperation with top influencers has been significantly reduced, putting pressure on online channel growth. The previously inflated valuation faces a sharp correction, and institutions have significantly lowered their target prices [4].

In addition, on January 4, 2026, the shareholding ratio of the company’s controlling shareholder and its concert parties changed by 1%, and the previous share reduction plan has been completed [5]. The completion of the controlling shareholder’s share reduction may further affect market confidence.

The market should pay attention to the following key price levels: the repurchase price range of HK$33.84-HK$34.48 represents the “value bottom” recognized by the company; the new analyst target price of HK$34.5 is the neutral expectation given by institutions; HK$35.14 is the stage low in November 2025; HK$40-HK$45 is the strong resistance level for recent rebounds; HK$30-HK$33 is an important psychological support level.

The Juzi Bio case reflects the fragility of the “high-growth narrative” in the functional skincare industry. Under overly optimistic market expectations, any decline in sales data may lead to a sharp valuation correction. The challenges facing the company are not only short-term sales slowdown but also fundamental changes in the industry’s competitive landscape—with more capital and enterprises entering the recombinant collagen track, the company’s first-mover advantage may be gradually diluted.

From a positive perspective, the company’s continuous large-scale repurchases reflect management’s confidence in the company’s long-term value, and its technological barriers and leading industry position still provide certain protection for the company. The approval of the new product (recombinant Type I collagen injection) and capacity expansion plans provide the company with future growth options.

However, current market sentiment is clearly bearish, institutional expectations have been significantly lowered, and the controlling shareholder’s share reduction has been completed. In the absence of clear short-term catalysts, the company’s share price may continue to fluctuate at low levels. Investors need to closely monitor whether subsequent sales data can stabilize, whether repurchases can continue to be implemented, and the progress of new product promotion.

1. Uncertainty in sales recovery:
   Double 11 sales data fell sharply; if online channels continue to face pressure, it will directly affect the company’s performance
2. Deteriorating competitive landscape:
   Competitors such as Jinbo Bio have increased investment, and traditional beauty giants have entered the market, which may further intensify industry competition
3. Continuous downward revision of institutional expectations:
   Analysts have significantly lowered profit forecasts and target prices; if sales data continue to deteriorate, more downward revisions may be triggered
4. Fragile market confidence:
   The completion of the controlling shareholder’s share reduction coupled with slumping sales has left market sentiment bearish, and the share price may continue to face pressure

1. Valuation repair opportunity:
   After falling nearly 60% from its high, the valuation has been significantly corrected; if sales stabilize, a repair market may emerge
2. New product growth:
   The recombinant Type I collagen injection has been approved, and the expansion of terminal coverage in 2026 may bring new growth drivers
3. Continuous repurchase support:
   If the large-scale repurchase plan can be continuously implemented, it may provide certain support for the share price
4. Solid technological barriers:
   Leading recombinant collagen technology and status as an industry standard setter provide long-term competitive advantages for the company

Juzi Bio (02367.HK) has recently become a hot stock, with the core driver being the tug-of-war between the company’s large-scale share repurchase program and a sharp decline in sales data. The share price has fallen from a high of HK$85.14 in May 2025 to the current range of HK$33-HK$35, representing a nearly 60% drop. During the Double 11 period, core brand KeyiMei’s sales came under pressure (Tmall -20%, Douyin -50%), leading institutions to slash profit forecasts by over 30% and lower the target price to HK$34.5.

Although the fundamentals still have technological barriers (recombinant collagen patent technology) and leading industry advantages, risk factors such as plummeting revenue growth, intensified competition, compliance disputes, and channel dependence have weighed on the market. The company’s continuous repurchases reflect management confidence but only brought a short-term pulse-like rebound, which is difficult to change the medium-term trend. Investors should closely monitor the recovery of sales, the progress of new product promotion, and the sustainability of repurchase implementation.