Valuation Analysis Report on Mingming Hen Mang's US$500 Million Hong Kong IPO

Based on the latest collected information, I provide you with an in-depth valuation analysis and business model assessment of Mingming Hen Mang’s US$500 million Hong Kong IPO.

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Mingming Hen Mang (formerly known as “Snack Busy” and “Zhao Yiming Snacks”) passed the Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) listing hearing on January 6, 2026 [1][2]. The company has Goldman Sachs and Huatai International as joint sponsors, and plans to issue no more than 76,666,400 overseas listed ordinary shares, with a targeted fundraising amount of approximately US$500 million (equivalent to approximately HK$780 million - HK$1.56 billion) [2].

• Total number of stores: 19,517 (99.9% of which are franchise stores, with only 23 self-operated stores) [1][2]
• Coverage: 28 provinces, 1,327 counties, and all city tiers across China [3]
• GMV in the first three quarters of 2025: RMB66.1 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 74.5% [1]
• Revenue in the first three quarters of 2025: RMB46.37 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 75.2% [1]
• Adjusted net profit in the first three quarters of 2025: RMB1.81 billion, representing a substantial year-on-year growth of 240.8% [1]

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Mingming Hen Mang has demonstrated an astonishing growth trajectory, providing a solid foundation for its IPO valuation:

Financial Indicators	2022	2023	2024	First Three Quarters of 2025
Revenue (RMB 100 million)	42.86	102.95	393.44	463.71
GMV (RMB 100 million)	64.47	153.25	555.31	661.00
Adjusted Net Profit (RMB 100 million)	0.81	2.35	9.13	18.10
Number of Stores	~1,900	6,569	14,394	19,517

From 2022 to 2024, the company’s compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of revenue reached 203%, and the CAGR of net profit reached 234.6% [1][4]. Such explosive growth is extremely rare in the consumer retail sector, forming the core support for valuation premium.

According to Frost & Sullivan data, Mingming Hen Mang became China’s largest chain retailer by GMV of leisure food and beverage products in 2024, and ranked 4th nationwide by GMV of food and beverage products [4]. In September 2025, the company became the first enterprise in the industry to exceed 20,000 stores [3], further consolidating its leading market position.

• Mingming Hen Mang’s 2024 revenue: RMB39.344 billion
• 2024 revenue of Wanchen Group’s bulk snack business: approximately RMB31.79 billion
• 2024 revenue of Liangpinpuzi: approximately RMB8-9 billion (facing transformation pressure)

A duopoly pattern (Mingming Hen Mang + Wanchen Group) has formed, with Mingming Hen Mang holding a slight scale advantage.

From the perspective of comparable companies, the potential valuation range of Mingming Hen Mang can be referenced based on the following logic:

• Based on 2024 revenue of RMB39.3 billion, referencing the P/S range of 0.5x-1.5x for the consumer retail industry, the valuation range is approximately RMB19.6-59 billion
• Considering the company’s high growth rate of over 75%, a certain premium can be granted

• Extrapolating from the first three quarters of 2025 GMV of RMB66.1 billion, the full-year GMV is approximately RMB88 billion
• Referencing the P/S on GMV range of 0.2x-0.5x for e-commerce/new retail companies, the valuation range is approximately RMB17.6-44 billion

• Based on the usual issuance ratio of 15-25% for new consumer retail stocks on HKEX
• The implied valuation range is approximately RMB14.4-24 billion

Considering all factors comprehensively, the company’s valuation is expected to be in the range of RMB20-30 billion, equivalent to approximately US$2.8-4.2 billion.

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Mingming Hen Mang adopts a typical

:

• Gross margin stabilizes in the range of 7.5%-9.7% (reaching 9.7% in the first three quarters of 2025) [1][5]
• Adjusted net profit margin increased from 1.9% in 2022 to 3.9% in the first three quarters of 2025 [1]
• Inventory turnover days are only 11.7 days, far better than the industry average [3]

• Similarities: Both take cost-effectiveness as core competitiveness and rely on franchising for rapid expansion
• Differences: Mixue Bingcheng can produce raw materials in-house, while Mingming Hen Mang relies entirely on external procurement

Through its full-link supply chain system featuring “direct connection with manufacturers - centralized warehousing - efficient distribution”, the company’s average product price is approximately 25% lower than that of offline supermarkets [4], achieving a differentiated positioning of “high quality at low price”.

Mingming Hen Mang’s revenue structure is highly dependent on product sales (99.5%) rather than franchise fees [5]:

• The vast majority of revenue comes from product sales to franchisees
• The number of franchisees increased from 994 in 2022 to 7,241 in 2024 [5]

1. High Revenue per Square Meter
   : The top-tier store revenue per square meter can reach over RMB20,000/㎡ [6]
2. Quick Turnover
   : Payback period is approximately 2 years [6]
3. Brand Momentum
   : The top industry position guarantees customer traffic

The company has built significant advantages in the supply chain:

• Over 2,300 cooperative manufacturers
  : Approximately 50% of the companies on the “2024 Hurun China Top 100 Food Companies List” are its suppliers [3][4]
• 3,997 in-stock SKUs
  : The number of SKUs per store is generally no less than 1,800 [3]
• 34% of products are customized
  : For example, the sales volume of the sesame paste-flavored vegetarian tripe single product exceeded 960 million units in the first three quarters of 2025 [4]
• 38% of products are sold by weight
  : Reduces consumers’ threshold for trying new products and improves repurchase rate

• Annual transaction volume exceeded 1.6 billion in 2024 [5]
• Total number of members: 120 million, with an annual repurchase rate of 75% [5]
• Average daily transactions per store: 481 in the first three quarters of 2025 [2]

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• 59% of stores are located in county towns and villages, with a penetration rate of 66% in the sinking market [4]
• Demand for high-quality, diversified snacks from consumers in county towns and villages continues to grow

• Based on per capita store density calculation, under neutral assumptions, the duopoly (Mingming Hen Mang + Wanchen Group) can open a total of 46,000 stores by 2027, representing approximately 60% of remaining expansion space compared to the current scale [6]

• The company has launched “Zhao Yiming Discount Supermarket” to test the full-category discount supermarket model [6]
• Categories have expanded to baked hot food, rice, flour, grain and oil, alcoholic beverages, frozen products, daily chemicals, and general merchandise

• Wanchen Group has over 15,000 stores, forming a duopoly with Mingming Hen Mang [6]
• 55% of Haoxianglai’s stores are located in third- and fourth-tier cities, with half of them within 1 kilometer of Mingming Hen Mang’s stores [5]
• The risk of industry price wars persists

With rapid store expansion, single-store revenue growth faces pressure:

• Single-store revenue in 2022, 2023, and 2024 was RMB2.2582 million, RMB1.5672 million, and RMB2.7362 million respectively [5]
• Single-store revenue declined in the early stage of expansion, and only rebounded significantly after the merger

• The low gross margin of 7.5%-9.7% means that profits may evaporate instantly once scale expansion slows down [5]
• Fluctuations in upstream raw material costs will directly affect profitability

• The bulk snack model has low technical barriers
• Traditional brands (such as Liangpinpuzi, Three Squirrels) are accelerating their counterattacks
• Three Squirrels completed the acquisition of “Ai Zhikou” in 2025 [6]

• As of June 30, 2025, the ending cash balance exceeded RMB2.394 billion, and the net current assets were RMB2.827 billion [3]
• Net operating cash flow in the first half of 2025 was RMB1.395 billion, demonstrating strong cash-generating capability [3]
• Net operating cash flow in the first three quarters of 2025 was RMB2.19 billion [1]

• Gross margin increased from 7.5% in 2022 to 9.7% in the first three quarters of 2025 [1]
• Adjusted net profit margin increased from 1.9% to 3.9% [1]

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Based on Mingming Hen Mang’s planned fundraising amount of approximately US$500 million, assuming an issuance ratio of 20%, the company’s implied valuation is approximately RMB18-25 billion.

Considering the following factors:

• Projected 2025 revenue is expected to exceed RMB60 billion
• Top industry position and scale of 20,000 stores
• High growth rate of over 75%

The current valuation level is within a reasonable range, but investors need to note the following:

Risk Factors	Impact Assessment
Low-margin model	High profit vulnerability, susceptible to cost fluctuations
Franchise dependence	99.9% franchise stores bring management challenges
Competitive landscape	Duopoly competition may intensify price wars
Growth sustainability	After rapid expansion, it faces the challenge of improving single-store efficiency

✓ The dividend from consumption upgrade in the sinking market continues to be released
✓ The scale effect of the supply chain continues to strengthen
✓ The member system and repurchase rate provide stable cash flow
✓ Full-category transformation may open up a second growth curve

✗ Single-store customer diversion effect after increased store density
✗ Counterattack intensity of traditional snack brands
✗ Rhythm of macroeconomic consumption recovery

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The IPO valuation logic of Mingming Hen Mang is based on three pillars:

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Leveraging its business model featuring “low prices + efficient supply chain”, the company achieved leaping development from a regional snack store to the largest national snack chain retailer within just three years.

Yes. With a scale of 20,000 stores, top industry position, and continuously optimized supply chain, the company is expected to maintain revenue growth of 20-30%, and profitability will continue to improve with scale effects.

Uncertain. It depends on:

1. Whether it can establish a second growth curve in the full-category transformation
2. Whether it can maintain single-store efficiency after increased store density
3. Whether it can maintain its advantageous position in the duopoly competition

As the “first bulk snack stock” on HKEX, Mingming Hen Mang has scarce allocation value. However, investors need to pay attention to the vulnerability of its low-margin model and the profit margin pressure brought by intensified industry competition. It is recommended to accumulate positions on dips during valuation corrections and hold for the medium to long term to benefit from industry integration dividends.

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[1] Caixin.com - Snack Chain Mingming Hen Mang Passes HKEX Listing Hearing; H1-Q3 2025 Revenue Exceeds Full-Year 2024 (https://companies.caixin.com/2026-01-07/102400890.html)

[2] Hong Kong Economic Times - New IPO | Mainland Snack Merchant Mingming Hen Mang to Raise at Least HK$780 Million (https://inews.hket.com/article/4063966/)

[3] Xinhua News - H1 2025 GMV Reaches RMB41.1 Billion; Mingming Hen Mang Leads the Industry in Operating Quality and Efficiency (http://www.news.cn/food/20251029/cd6e06c506dd46bebd11bbd4878f430d/c.html)

[4] Eastmoney - Mingming Hen Mang Goes for HKEX Listing: 19,000 Stores Support the First Bulk Snack Stock (http://finance.eastmoney.com/a/202601073611261839.html)

[5] 21st Century Business Herald - Mingming Hen Mang Submits Listing Application for the Second Time: Sells RMB41.1 Billion in Half a Year; The Snack King Uses the “Mixue Bingcheng” Model (https://www.21jingji.com/article/20251103/herald/8b2011d0240f4c69df771b12b4e122fb.html)

[6] Eastmoney Securities Research - In-Depth Research Report on Wanchen Group (http://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202509071739989785_1.pdf)