Analysis of the Impact of Japan's Starlink-like Program on the Competitive Landscape of the Global Satellite Communication Industry Chain

Based on the latest collected data and market information, I will conduct a systematic analysis of this topic from multiple dimensions.

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From a national security perspective, the Japanese government is developing a “Japan’s Starlink-like” system. According to reports from Japan’s Sankei Shimbun, this program has the following core features [1][2]:

Item	Details
Investment Scale	150 billion yen (approximately $960 million), included in the 2025 fiscal year supplementary budget
Number of Satellites	Approximately 500 low-Earth orbit (LEO) satellites
Orbit Altitude	200-2000 kilometers
Functional Positioning	Supports voice calls and data communication for devices such as mobile phones
Strategic Objective	Achieve domestically controlled communication services

Notably, after the January 2024 earthquake in the Noto Peninsula, Japanese telecommunications carrier KDDI provided Starlink receiving terminals free of charge to evacuation sites, which significantly raised Japanese public awareness of satellite communication as a communication support method during disasters [1]. Relevant Japanese government officials have a strong sense of crisis regarding this, stating that “if this continues, the market will be fully occupied by overseas enterprises.”

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The current global low-Earth orbit (LEO) satellite communication market presents a pattern of

. Leveraging first-mover advantage and scale effects, Starlink has established a significant leading market position [3][4].

Constellation Name	Planned Number of Satellites	Number of Deployed Satellites	Status
Starlink	42,000	9,300+	In Operation
OneWeb	648	634	Nearing Completion
Amazon Kuiper	3,236	102	Early Deployment Stage
China GW Constellation	12,992	~100	Constellation Deployment in Progress
China Qianfan Constellation	15,000+	90	Constellation Deployment in Progress
Japan’s Program	500	0	Planning Stage

Starlink achieved remarkable results in 2025:

• User Growth
  : Added 4.6 million new users in 2025, with the total number of users exceeding 9 million [4]
• Market Coverage
  : Service scope expanded to 155 countries and regions [4]
• U.S. Market Share
  : Captures 72% of the satellite broadband market (among approximately 2.4 million users) [5]
• Technological Progress
  : Internet speed increased by over 50% [4]

S&P Global Ratings believes that Starlink will continue to gain market share by virtue of its low-latency LEO network (over 6,000 satellites and growing), nearly unlimited capital access, vertically integrated launch capabilities with SpaceX, and strong brand influence [5].

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From a commercial competition perspective, Japan’s Starlink-like program will have limited direct impact on Starlink, mainly due to the following reasons:

• Huge Scale Gap
  : Japan plans 500 satellites vs. Starlink’s over 9,300 deployed satellites (42,000 planned)
• Latecomer Disadvantage
  : Starlink has established a complete business closed-loop and brand recognition
• Cost Disadvantage
  : Lack of cost-control measures such as reusable rockets

However, Japan’s initiative may have the following indirect impacts:

• Validates the strategic value of the satellite internet market
• May stimulate other countries or regions to take similar actions
• Adds a potential competitor (albeit small-scale) to Starlink

According to the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology (CAICT), the global satellite communication terminal market is expected to reach $10.9 billion by 2027 [3]. The advancement of Japan’s Starlink-like program will:

• Stimulate demand for satellite terminal equipment
• Promote the construction of ground station infrastructure
• Promote R&D investment in key components such as antennas and chipsets

Affected Field	Specific Performance
Satellite Manufacturing	The demand for 500 satellites will drive the expansion of satellite production capacity in Japan and globally
Launch Services	Short-term benefits for launch service providers, but limited in scale
Supply Chain	Increased demand for satellite components, solar panels, propulsion systems, etc.

Japan’s Starlink-like program is primarily positioned to protect the domestic market, so its impact on the global operation service market will be small. However, it may stimulate:

• Intensified competition in the Japanese domestic market
• Existing service providers (such as Starlink) face policy pressure in the Japanese market

The essence of Japan’s Starlink-like program is

rather than a purely commercial initiative, which gives it special significance:

• Independent and Controllable Communication
  : Reduce reliance on overseas operators
• Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Capability
  : Enhance communication support during disasters
• Military Application Potential
  : Japan’s Coast Guard has decided to deploy Starlink on 66 patrol ships [6]

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According to data from ResearchAndMarkets, the global commercial satellite constellation market is showing strong growth momentum [7]:

Year	Market Size (Billions of USD)
2025	14.3
2028	22.3
2032	27.3
2034	53.8

Fortune Business Insights forecasts that the market size of satellite mega constellations will grow from $5.55 billion in 2025 to $27.3 billion in 2032, with a CAGR of 25.53% [8].

2025 Market Landscape            Projected 2030 Market Landscape
┌─────────────────┐              ┌─────────────────┐
│ Starlink: 65%   │              │ Starlink: ~50%  │
│ OneWeb: 15%     │      →       │ Kuiper: ~20%    │
│ Kuiper: 10%     │              │ Chinese Constellations: ~15%  │
│ Others: 8%      │              │ OneWeb: ~8%     │
│ Japan: 2%       │              │ Others: ~7%     │
└─────────────────┘              └─────────────────┘

1. Launch Costs
   : Reusable rocket technology will continue to lower the threshold for launches
2. Frequency and Orbit Resources
   : Competition for frequency and orbit resources will intensify under the rules of the International Telecommunication Union (ITU)
3. Technological Evolution
   : New technologies such as V3 satellites and direct-to-mobile connectivity will reshape the market
4. Geopolitics
   : The emphasis placed by various countries on independent communication will drive more “domestic Starlink-style” programs

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From a commercial perspective, Japan’s Starlink-like program will have limited impact on Starlink’s market position. With its ambitious plan of 42,000 satellites, 9 million user base, and mature commercial operations, Starlink will remain dominant in the foreseeable future. However, Japan’s initiative marks the evolution of the global satellite communication market from “single dominance” to “multipolarization.”

Japan’s Starlink-like program will stimulate the development of the global satellite communication industry chain, particularly in:

• Ground equipment manufacturing (antennas, terminal devices)
• Satellite component supply (solar cells, propulsion systems)
• Launch service market

The core motivation behind Japan’s Starlink-like program is security rather than commercial competition. This reflects the global increase in awareness of the strategic value of satellite communication, and it is expected to trigger more countries or regions to follow up with similar “domestic Starlink-style” programs.

The global satellite communication market is in a period of rapid growth, with the market size projected to exceed $50 billion by 2034. While Starlink will remain in a leading position, competition from Amazon Kuiper, Chinese constellation systems, Japan, and other emerging players will intensify, eventually forming a more diversified market pattern.

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[1] Xinhua News Agency - Japan Plans to Build a Domestic Starlink-like System (https://finance.eastmoney.com/a/202601073611429032.html)

[2] Sohu Finance - Japan Plans to Build a Domestic Starlink-like System (https://m.sohu.com/a/973504923_267106)

[3] Soochow Securities - In-depth Report on the Electronic Industry: Rapid Development of Satellite Communication, Starlink Industry Chain Remains Leading (https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403221627604172_1.pdf)

[4] DISHYtech - Starlink Just Had A Massive 2025 (https://www.dishytech.com/starlink-just-had-a-massive-2025-and-2026-could-be-even-bigger/)

[5] S&P Global Ratings - Satellite Providers Pulled Into Starlink’s Orbit (https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/regulatory/article/241107-satellite-providers-pulled-into-starlink-s-orbit-s13315383)

[6] Drive Tesla Canada - Japan Adopts Starlink for 66 Coast Guard Patrol Vessels (https://driveteslacanada.ca/news/japan-adopts-starlink-for-66-coast-guard-patrol-vessels/)

[7] ResearchAndMarkets - Commercial Satellite Constellations Market Outlook 2025-2034 (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/commercial-satellite-constellations-market-outlook-081400415.html)

[8] Fortune Business Insights - Satellite Mega Constellations Market Size (https://www.fortunebusinessinsights.com/satellite-mega-constellations-market-112989)

[9] Cailian Press - Race for Reusable Rockets, 2025 Marks a New Era for Commercial Spaceflight (https://www.stcn.com/article/detail/3565344.html)

[10] Securities Times - “China’s Starlink-like Program” Launches on Three Fronts (https://stcn.com/article/detail/3242546.html)