Ganfeng Lithium (01772.HK) Becomes a Hong Kong Stock Market Favorite Driven by Limit-Up in Lithium Carbonate Futures

Ganfeng Lithium (01772.HK) became a favorite stock in the Hong Kong stock market on January 6, 2026, closing up 6.57% to approximately HK$55.10 [1][4]. As a global leading lithium industry chain enterprise, it is known as one of the “Lithium Mining Twins” together with Tianqi Lithium, with its main business covering the entire industrial chain including deep-processed lithium products, lithium battery new materials, R&D, production and sales of lithium batteries and energy storage batteries, lithium resources and lithium battery recycling [1]. As of now, the company has a market capitalization of approximately HK$138.8 billion, 16,460 employees, and a 52-week share price range of HK$16.22 to HK$63.35 [6].

From a long-term performance perspective, Ganfeng Lithium’s share price has risen by approximately 179.15% in the past year, with a maximum increase of approximately 173% from its 2025 low, showing a strong rebound momentum [5][6]. Notably, since the second half of 2025, benefiting from the continuous strength of lithium carbonate prices, the company has been one of the most watched lithium mining concept stocks in the Hong Kong market.

On January 6, 2026, the main lithium carbonate futures contract LC2506 rose strongly to the daily limit, with an increase of 9%, and the intraday price exceeded RMB137,760 per ton, hitting a two-year high [1][2]. This price surge has become the core driver for the strength of Ganfeng Lithium and the entire lithium mining sector. According to calculations from Huatai Securities, since the second half of 2025, lithium carbonate prices have started from RMB77,100 per ton at the beginning of the year, doubling in half a year, and peaking at RMB134,500 per ton. The market supply and demand dynamics have shifted from oversupply to a quarterly supply gap [1][3].

The rise in lithium carbonate prices reflects strong market expectations of improved lithium resource supply and demand dynamics. According to a research report from Zheshang Securities, the demand for lithium carbonate from energy storage is expected to reach 345,000 tons in 2025, and exceed 500,000 tons in 2026. AI data centers, parity of solar-storage systems, and wind-solar supporting energy storage are becoming core factors driving demand [1][5].

The Notice on the Action Plan for Comprehensive Solid Waste Management issued by the State Council has brought policy benefits to the lithium industry [1][2]. The document promotes the integrated construction of non-ferrous metal mining and dressing, promotes the nearby backfilling of tailings, and in principle will no longer approve dressing projects without self-owned mines and supporting tailings utilization and disposal facilities. Market analysts believe that this policy may have an impact on some mines in Jiangxi, indirectly supporting lithium prices [2].

Ganfeng Lithium replied on the interactive platform that the 2.4 million tons/year mining and dressing project of the Lithium-Tin Polymetallic Mine of Inner Mongolia Velastor Mining Co., Ltd. has officially obtained approval, providing a guarantee for the company’s future resource supply [4]. In addition, the 1000MW/4000MWh grid-forming energy storage project in Hulunbuir, Inner Mongolia, participated by the company, has been connected to the grid, marking the implementation of the company’s layout in the energy storage field [5].

From the perspective of financial data, the company’s net profit in the third quarter increased by 364.02% year-on-year, losses continued to narrow, and there were signs of a turning point in performance [5]. Although it is still in a loss-making state (TTM net profit loss of approximately HK$1.41 billion, earnings per share of -HK$0.58), the improvement trend is clear [6].

Indicator	Value	Interpretation
RSI(14)	50.79	Neutral zone, no overbought or oversold signals for now
Beta Coefficient	0.98	High correlation with the broader market
Price-to-Book Ratio	2.98	Relatively reasonable
Gross Margin	11.4%	At the normal level of the industry

From a technical perspective, Ganfeng Lithium’s current RSI is in the neutral zone, indicating that the stock price is neither overbought nor oversold, and market participants can evaluate the subsequent trend relatively rationally [6].

Type	Price Range	Explanation
Support Level 1	HK$51.00 - HK$52.00	Recent low support area
Support Level 2	HK$48.00 - HK$50.00	Key support zone
Resistance Level 1	HK$58.00 - HK$60.00	Previous dense trading area
Resistance Level 2	HK$63.35	52-week high

Type	Price Range
Downside Support	RMB98,000 - RMB100,000 per ton
Upside Resistance	RMB130,000 - RMB140,000 per ton

Recent trading volume of Ganfeng Lithium has increased significantly, with a turnover of approximately HK$242 million on January 6 [4]. The increase in trading volume indicates rising market attention and obvious capital inflow.

Currently, 12 analysts have given a “Buy” rating, and 3 have given a “Sell” rating, with the overall rating leaning positive [6]. The analysts’ target price range is HK$18.92 to HK$79.38, with an average target price of HK$46.31. The current price has a discount of approximately 14.40% compared to the average target price [6]. It should be noted that the difference between the target price and the current stock price reflects the divergence in analysts’ valuation judgments of the company.

Some institutions have adjusted their positions recently. J.P. Morgan reduced its holdings of Ganfeng Lithium by 1.5933 million shares on November 20, 2025, at a price of HK$59.13 per share, with a total amount of approximately HK$94.21 million [8]. Goldman Sachs once lowered the earnings forecasts of lithium stocks by 5%-42%, downgraded Ganfeng Lithium to “Sell” with a target price of HK$18.90 [8]. On the other hand, Dahua CIBC upgraded Ganfeng Lithium to “Buy” with a target price of HK$30 [8]. Institutional divergence indicates uncertainty in the market’s judgment on the future of the lithium industry.

According to data from platforms like Xueqiu, Ganfeng Lithium has become a hot topic among investors, and discussions related to “Hong Kong-listed lithium battery stocks strengthening” are active, but investors have obvious divergences on the company’s subsequent trend [4].

Lithium prices belong to a strongly cyclical industry, and sharp price fluctuations are its inherent characteristic. Although the recent sharp rise in lithium carbonate futures prices reflects expectations of improved supply and demand, it also means that the market has obvious game characteristics, and prices may face sharp fluctuations [3]. Investors need to closely monitor developments in the futures market and be alert to the risk of price corrections.

Although there are signs of improvement in the company’s fundamentals, it is still in a loss-making state (TTM net profit loss of approximately HK$1.41 billion, negative price-to-earnings ratio), which means that traditional valuation methods may not be fully applicable [6]. In addition, the stock price has risen significantly in the short term, leading to higher risks of chasing the rally.

1. Downstream Demand Off-Season
   : Although demand shows the characteristic of “not weak in off-season”, the off-season effect in the first quarter still needs to be observed [3]
2. CATL’s Production Resumption
   : The Yichun Jianxiawo lithium mine project is expected to resume production around the Spring Festival in 2026, which may affect the short-term supply and demand balance [1]
3. Industry Chain Transmission
   : The large price gap between futures and spot has hindered price transmission in the industry chain [5]
4. Supply-Side Response
   : The rise in lithium prices may trigger the release of idle production capacity, reversing the supply-demand gap

Lithium carbonate futures prices hit a two-year high, with a clear trend of improved supply and demand dynamics; policy support for comprehensive solid waste management; energy storage demand emerging as a new growth driver; approval of the company’s projects providing fundamental support; narrowing losses and signs of performance improvement [1][2][5].

Significant short-term stock price gains with high risks of chasing the rally; sharp fluctuations in the strongly cyclical industry; the company remains in a loss-making state; obvious game characteristics in the futures market, and subsequent trends need to be closely monitored with reference to lithium carbonate futures market developments [3][6].

If the stock price breaks through HK$55.50, it is expected to test the HK$58-60 range; if it pulls back to the HK$51-52 area, investors can pay attention to stabilization opportunities; if it falls below HK$50, investors should consider stop-loss or position reduction. The current RSI is in the neutral zone, and there is no clear directional guidance from the technical side [6].

This report is compiled and analyzed based on public information, for reference only, and does not constitute investment advice. Investors should make prudent decisions based on their own risk tolerance. The stock market is risky, and investment needs to be cautious.