XPeng-W (09868.HK) Hot Stock Analysis: Record-High Deliveries, Accelerated European Market Expansion

This analysis is based on AASTOCKS financial news [1] and Investing.com market data [2], with reports released in early January 2026. XPeng-W (Hong Kong stock code: 09868.HK, US stock code: XPEV) has recently become a hot target in the Hong Kong stock market, with core driving factors stemming from its record-high 2025 deliveries and frequent rating upgrades by international investment banks. The company’s full-year 2025 deliveries reached 429,445 units, representing a significant 126% year-over-year increase, with monthly deliveries of 37,508 units in December hitting a record high [5]. This delivery performance significantly exceeded market expectations, prompting multiple institutions to raise target prices and ratings. Notably, the 2026 XPeng P7+ has completed trial production at the Graz, Austria plant, will be launched in the mainland on January 8, and officially debut in the European market on January 9, marking a new stage in the company’s internationalization strategy [1].

From a financial data perspective, XPeng has demonstrated strong growth momentum. Overseas deliveries reached 45,008 units, a 96% year-over-year increase, and its business footprint has expanded to approximately 60 countries and regions [5]. Technologically, the company’s launch of its low-cost sub-brand Mona has effectively driven revenue growth, the VLA 2.0 technology model has 10 times the parameters of the previous generation, and its AI technology maintains a leading position in the industry [7]. Its self-operated charging network has rapidly expanded to approximately 3,000 charging stations, providing users with a more convenient energy replenishment experience [5]. The current stock price is approximately HK$77.70, with a 52-week trading range of HK$45.75 to HK$110.80, and a market capitalization of approximately HK$149.75 billion [2]. 27 analysts have unanimously given a “Buy” rating, with 0 “Sell” ratings, and the average target price reaches HK$115.77, representing approximately 49% potential upside from the current stock price [2].

On January 4, 2026, Chen Yonghai, Vice President and Head of the Product Center, officially resigned. He was regarded as a core figure in XPeng’s product system and had a long-term partnership with founder He Xiaopeng [4]. This news caused the stock price to drop 4.6% on the same day, reflecting market concerns about management stability [1][4]. The position is currently temporarily managed by President Wang Fengying. Despite short-term pressure, a “golden cross” pattern (short-term moving average crossing above long-term moving average) has appeared on the technical chart, and the RSI(14) is 39.36 in the neutral zone, neither overbought nor oversold, suggesting potential short-term rebound space [1][2]. Looking at the trend of US-listed XPEV, during the 25 trading days from December 2025 to January 2026, the initial price was US$21.28, the closing price was US$20.11, representing a 5.50% decline, with an average daily trading volume of approximately 8.53 million shares and a volatility (daily standard deviation) of 3.39% [0].

XPeng’s case reveals a typical path for Chinese new energy vehicle (NEV) companies’ internationalization strategy. The company’s leapfrog growth from 190,068 units delivered in 2024 to 429,445 units in 2025 not only reflects improved product competitiveness but also demonstrates the effectiveness of its overseas market expansion. Its internationalization into approximately 60 countries and regions, especially its layout in the European market (trial production of the P7+ at the Graz, Austria plant), marks a transformation from “Made in China” to a “global brand” [5]. However, frequent rating adjustments such as Freedom Capital upgrading from “Hold” to “Buy” and raising the target price from US$20 to US$25 [6], and JPMorgan maintaining an “Overweight” rating while significantly raising the target price to US$50 [7], not only reflect institutional recognition of the company’s fundamentals but also suggest that the market’s previous pricing may have been overly pessimistic.

While Goldman Sachs gave a target price of HK$96 for Hong Kong shares and US$25 for US shares, it also warned that competition in the mainland auto industry will continue to intensify in 2026, and the industry’s profit decline is expected to widen [3]. BofA raised its target price from US$26 to US$27-28 [7], indicating institutions’ attitude of balancing short-term performance confirmation and long-term strategy. Crucially, 119 new NEV models are expected to be launched in the mainland in 2026, and the risk of a price war cannot be ignored [3]. This means XPeng needs to find a balance between scale expansion and profitability.

From an industry perspective, XPeng’s delivery growth is a microcosm of the rise of the entire Chinese NEV industry. Institutional holding data shows that approximately 21.1% of XPeng shares are held by institutional investors [7], indicating professional capital’s recognition of its long-term value. Automakers increase their net cash reserves through equity financing, providing financial support for R&D and expansion [3]. However, its continuous loss status (negative net profit, P/E of -46.82, forward P/E as high as 93.48) [2][6] reflects the common profitability challenges faced by the NEV industry. The market’s high valuation of XPeng is more based on future growth expectations rather than pricing for current profitability.

: The resignation of core Vice President Chen Yonghai may affect the continuity of product planning. His role as He Xiaopeng’s long-time partner highlights the sensitivity of this change [4]. Although temporarily managed by Wang Fengying, a long-term vacancy in the Product Center head position may affect the pace of new model development and market response speed.

: Although the stock price has pulled back from previous highs, the current price-to-sales ratio is still close to a 1-year low, reflecting market concerns about profitability [6]. The forward P/E ratio is as high as 93.48, meaning investors have extremely high expectations for the company’s growth in the next few years, and any underperformance may lead to valuation contraction.

: 119 new NEV models are expected to be launched in the mainland in 2026, increasing the risk of a price war [3]. Goldman Sachs expects the industry’s profit decline to continue, putting pressure on automakers’ profitability [3]. Competition in the domestic market has entered a fierce stage, and XPeng needs to maintain competitiveness through product differentiation and cost control.

: Geopolitical factors such as possible U.S. oil embargoes on Venezuela may affect energy costs and the global trade environment [1]. In addition, the recent increase in short selling activities indicates short-term capital pressure [1].

: The 126% year-over-year delivery growth proves the company’s product competitiveness and market acceptance [5]. The record-high monthly deliveries of 37,508 units in December 2025 show continuous improvement in production capacity and supply chain management capabilities.

: The official launch in the European market (P7+ listing on January 9) is an important milestone [1]. Entry into approximately 60 countries and regions helps diversify revenue and reduce single-market risks. Overseas deliveries of 45,008 units, a 96% year-over-year increase [5], indicate that the internationalization strategy is making substantial contributions.

: AI technologies such as VLA 2.0 maintain industry leadership [7], the launch of the low-cost sub-brand Mona [6], and the expansion of the self-operated charging network to approximately 3,000 stations [5] have built a moat for product competitiveness and service ecosystem.

: The current price of HK$77.70 corresponds to an average target price of HK$115.77, representing approximately 49% potential upside [2]. Goldman Sachs’ target price of HK$96, JPMorgan’s target price of US$50 (approximately HK$97.5), and BofA’s target price of US$27-28 (approximately HK$52-54) form a multi-tiered target price structure [3][7].

As a representative Chinese NEV enterprise, XPeng-W (09868.HK)'s outstanding performance of 126% year-over-year delivery growth to 429,445 units in 2025 is the core catalyst for its recent stock price movement [5]. Accelerated internationalization strategy (entry into approximately 60 markets, trial production of the P7+ at the European plant) and frequent rating upgrades by multiple international investment banks form medium-to-long-term value support [1][3][6][7]. A “golden cross” pattern has appeared on the technical chart, and the RSI is in the neutral zone, suggesting potential short-term rebound space [1][2].

However, investors should pay attention to the following key information: concerns about management stability triggered by the resignation of core Vice President Chen Yonghai [4]; current loss-making status with high valuation (P/E of -46.82, forward P/E of 93.48) [2][6]; intensified competition in the mainland NEV market in 2026 (119 new models expected to be launched) and the risk of a price war [3]. Market forecasts show that XPeng’s 2026 trading range is expected to be US$20.62-39.14 (corresponding to approximately HK$80-152 for Hong Kong shares), and it is expected to achieve revenue of RMB137.4 billion and profit of RMB6.4 billion in 2028 [5][7].

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[0] Jinling Analysis Database - Market Data and Technical Indicators
[1] AASTOCKS - XPeng-W (09868.HK) Financial News
[2] Investing.com - XPeng-W (09868) Stock Quotes
[3] Yahoo Finance - Goldman Sachs Expects Sustained Competition in Mainland Auto Industry in 2026
[4] AASTOCKS - US Stock Movement | XPeng Drops 2.8% in Pre-Market Trading
[5] Yahoo Finance - Did XPeng’s 2025 Delivery Surge and Global Push Just Shift XPeng’s Investment Narrative
[6] GuruFocus - XPeng (XPEV) Sees Upgrade Amid Positive Performance Trends
[7] Intellectia AI - XPeng Delivers 116,007 Vehicles in Q3 2025