CATL (03750.HK) Hot Stock Analysis: Signs 5-Year Strategic Cooperation with NIO, Stock Price Nears 52-Week High

This analysis is based on reports from multiple media outlets including Sina Finance and Eastmoney on January 6, 2026 [1][2][3]. On January 6, 2026, CATL and NIO signed a five-year comprehensive deepened strategic cooperation agreement in Hefei, Anhui, a major event that became the core driving factor for CATL (03750.HK) to emerge as a hot stock on the Hong Kong stock market. The signing ceremony was held at a high level, with Zeng Yuqun, Chairman and CEO of CATL, William Li, Founder/Chairman/CEO of NIO, Fei Gaoyun, Secretary of the Hefei Municipal Party Committee, Luo Yunfeng, Mayor of Hefei, and others in attendance to witness the event [3].

This cooperation agreement is a further deepening following the first five-year strategic agreement signed by the two parties in January 2023. Notably, in March 2025, CATL made a strategic investment of no more than RMB2.5 billion in NIO Energy, and this signing marks a new stage in the relationship between the two parties, evolving from “strategic partners” to “full ecological deep collaboration”. The core content of the agreement covers three dimensions: on the technical side, the focus is on joint development of long-life batteries and battery swap adaptation technology; on the ecological side, the two parties will jointly promote the formulation of battery swap technical standards and sharing of battery swap network resources, and deepen BaaS (Battery as a Service) model collaboration; on the market side, they will strengthen joint brand promotion in domestic and overseas markets to jointly enhance global market influence [1][2].

From a market performance perspective, CATL’s Hong Kong-listed shares show a strong upward trend. As of 14:30 (GMT+8) on January 7, 2026, the stock price is in the range of HK$507.00-515.00, with a year-to-date (YTD) gain of 43.22%, significantly outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index; the 1-year gain is as high as 73.99%, with an excess return of approximately 52 percentage points compared to the Shanghai Composite Index (21.65%) [0]. The cumulative 5-year gain is 71.28%, demonstrating long-term growth value.

The current stock price is close to the 52-week high (HK$614), and there is certain profit-taking pressure from a technical perspective. From a valuation perspective, the company’s current trailing twelve months (TTM) price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is approximately 31.63-32.25x, near the upper end of the historical valuation range [0]. Market data shows that today’s trading volume is 405,825-655,975 shares, only 16%-26% of the average trading volume (approximately 2,472,085 shares), showing a relatively thin trend, reflecting a certain wait-and-see sentiment among investors at the current level.

Analysts have given positive evaluations of CATL. According to Yahoo Finance data, the average 1-year target price given by analysts is HK$599.63, with the highest target price reaching HK$702.66 and the lowest being HK$319.55, and the current stock price is close to the median of the target price range [0]. This means that from the average perspective, there is still certain upside potential for the stock price.

Morgan Stanley Research (cited from Electrek) pointed out that in recent tests, CATL’s lithium-ion battery has the lowest attenuation rate, “significantly better than competitors” [4]. The institution expects global energy storage installations to reach approximately 600 GWh in 2025 and exceed 900 GWh in 2026, and the ability to control battery attenuation will become a key element in developing products with competitive cycle costs. This technological advantage provides solid support for CATL’s long-term competitiveness.

From the industry outlook, China’s new energy vehicle (NEV) market continues to grow at a high speed. It is expected that domestic auto sales will exceed 28 million units in 2026, and NEV sales will exceed 20 million units, with a penetration rate expected to reach 60% [4]. As the global leader in power batteries, CATL will continue to benefit from industry growth and the expansion of energy storage demand.

In addition to its core power battery business, CATL is actively expanding into emerging fields. In the electric ship business, CATL is rapidly expanding electric vehicle battery technology to the electric ship field, opening up new growth points [5]. At the same time, the company’s sodium-ion batteries are expected to be put into large-scale application starting in 2026, which is expected to reduce dependence on lithium resources and improve cost control capabilities. In terms of battery swap networks, the 1000th “Chocolate” Battery Swap Station has been completed, and the battery swap ecosystem continues to improve, laying a foundation for the deepened development of the BaaS model.

: The five-year deepened cooperation between CATL and NIO is not just a simple upgrade of the supplier-customer relationship, but an important strategic layout for building full industry chain ecological collaboration. Through the formulation of battery swap technical standards, sharing of network resources, and collaboration on the BaaS model, the two parties are building a complete ecological closed loop covering R&D, manufacturing, operation, and service. This deep binding not only enhances the certainty of CATL’s orders, but also provides large-scale application scenarios for its battery swap technology and battery service business.

: Morgan Stanley’s recognition that CATL’s battery attenuation rate is “significantly better than competitors” [4] means that CATL’s technological advantages are being converted into market competitiveness. Long-life batteries can not only improve user experience, but also reduce the total life cycle cost, which is of great attraction for high-frequency use scenarios such as ride-hailing vehicles and commercial vehicles. With energy storage demand expected to exceed 900 GWh in 2026 [4], the premium capability brought by technological leadership will become more prominent.

: The current P/E ratio of around 32x has reflected most optimistic expectations. After the stock price has risen 43% since the start of the year [0], it needs to digest the valuation through performance growth or new catalysts. The financial report to be released on February 25 will be an important test node.

Risk Type	Specific Description
Valuation Risk	Current P/E ratio is around 32x, near the upper end of the historical valuation range, with the stock price having risen 43% since the start of the year [0]
Trading Volume Risk	Today’s trading volume is only 16%-26% of the average volume, so attention should be paid to insufficient follow-up buying
Customer Concentration Risk	High dependence on major customers such as NIO, which requires attention even with deepened cooperation
Technical Resistance Risk	The 52-week high of HK$614 brings significant profit-taking pressure
Earnings Uncertainty	Approximately 7 weeks remain until the earnings report is released on February 25, and there may be uncertainty

: The five-year comprehensive cooperation with NIO ensures long-term order stability, while battery swap network resource sharing and BaaS model collaboration open up new business growth points for CATL. With the completion of the 1000th Chocolate Battery Swap Station [1], the scale effect of the battery swap ecosystem is emerging.

: In 2026, the penetration rate of NEVs in China is expected to reach 60%, and global energy storage installations are expected to exceed 900 GWh [4]. The high growth of the industry provides a broad development space for CATL. The mass production of sodium-ion batteries and the expansion of the electric ship business further enrich the company’s growth engines.

: The test result that CATL’s battery attenuation rate is significantly better than that of competitors [4] provides differentiated competitiveness for CATL in high-end markets and overseas expansion, and it is expected to maintain leading market share in fierce competition.

In the short term (1-2 weeks), the positive benefits of the strategic cooperation have been partially reflected in the stock price, and attention should be paid to whether trading volume can expand in line with price movements. In the medium term (1-3 months), market expectations are positive before the February financial report, but the current valuation is relatively high, so caution is needed when chasing highs. From a long-term perspective, as the global leader in power batteries, the company will continue to benefit from the growth of the new energy vehicle industry and the expansion of energy storage demand.

Price Type	Specific Price	Technical Implication
Strong Resistance Level	HK$520-530	Previous dense trading area, requires volume to break through
Important Resistance Level	HK$550	Psychological threshold
52-Week High Resistance	HK$614	Historical high, maximum pressure
Immediate Support Level	HK$507-510	Near today’s opening price
Strong Support Level	HK$480-490	Near the 20-day moving average
Key Support Level	HK$450	Important technical support

The core driving factor for CATL (03750.HK) to become a hot stock on the Hong Kong stock market is the five-year comprehensive deepened strategic cooperation agreement signed with NIO on January 6, 2026, which covers multiple dimensions such as joint development of long-life batteries, formulation of battery swap technical standards, and BaaS model collaboration. The company’s stock price has risen 43.22% year-to-date and 73.99% over the past year, with the current stock price approaching the 52-week high (HK$614), and there is profit-taking pressure from a technical perspective. The average analyst target price is HK$599.63, which means there is still certain upside potential for the stock price from the average perspective. Morgan Stanley Research shows that CATL’s battery attenuation rate is “significantly better than competitors” [4], and its technological advantages provide support for long-term competitiveness. Current risks that need attention include relatively high valuation, thin trading volume, and uncertainty regarding the February financial report. The company’s ongoing mass production of sodium-ion batteries, expansion of battery swap networks, and electric ship business provide new growth points for long-term development.