Catalytic Analysis of Kingsoft Corporation's *Goose Goose Duck* Mobile Game Open Beta

Kingsoft Corporation (03888.HK) became a hot target in Hong Kong stocks on January 7, 2026, mainly driven by the official open beta of its Goose Goose Duck mobile game. Co-published by Kingsoft World Games and Huya, the game has exceeded 20 million pre-registered users across all platforms and boasts a high rating of 9.6 on TapTap, attracting significant market attention [1][2][3]. However, the stock price reacted tepidly today, falling 1.34% with trading volume shrinking by 64%, indicating that the market is taking a wait-and-see attitude towards this news. Technically, the stock is in a sideways consolidation pattern. Analysts unanimously give a Buy rating, with the average target price implying an upside of about 39%, but the actual revenue performance remains to be verified [0].

The open beta of the Goose Goose Duck mobile game is Kingsoft’s most important business catalyst recently. The original version of the game was launched on Steam in 2021, once setting a record of over 700,000 peak concurrent users, and is one of the most influential social deduction games in recent years [4]. Kingsoft World Games officially announced its entry into the domestic market in March 2025, and after two rounds of testing (“Duck Pressure Test” and “Duck Axis Test”), it launched the full-platform open beta on January 7, 2026.

In terms of product competitiveness, the Goose Goose Duck mobile game has the following differentiated advantages: First, it fully retains the classic faction confrontation and strategy gameplay of the PC version, with a high degree of restoration of the official IP; Second, in terms of localization innovation, it has added limited-time exclusive domestic server characters “Witch Doctor” and “Bu Gai Niao” to enhance user freshness; Third, the co-publication with Huya Live brings a strong traffic import channel, with “Da Sima” serving as the mobile game’s “chief manager” and hundreds of anchors participating in promotion, forming a “game + live streaming” synergy effect [1][2].

From a valuation perspective, Kingsoft’s current price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) is 21.81x, which is within a reasonable range; its gross profit margin is as high as 81.8%, indicating strong profitability of its game business; its Beta coefficient is only 0.51, which means lower volatility compared to the Hang Seng Index, but also implies relatively limited upside elasticity [0].

The DCF valuation model shows significant differences in intrinsic value under three scenarios: the conservative scenario valuation is HK$83.07, the base scenario valuation is HK$108.29, the optimistic scenario valuation is as high as HK$253.53, and the weighted average valuation is HK$148.30, implying a potential upside of 403.7% compared to the current price [0]. However, this valuation result should be viewed cautiously, as its assumptions may be overly optimistic and do not fully reflect the risks of intensified market competition and industry regulation.

Despite positive fundamental factors, Kingsoft’s recent stock price performance has been relatively tepid. It has risen 2.36% in the past month, with a year-to-date return of 3.74%, outperforming the Hang Seng Index (+2.96%), but its one-year return is -9.24%, significantly lagging behind the Hang Seng Index (+35.69%) [0]. This divergent performance reflects certain market doubts about how the company will maintain its competitive advantage in the AI era.

Notably, today’s trading volume is only 5.16 million shares, a shrinkage of about 64% compared to the three-month average (14.45 million shares). The thin trading indicates that the market is taking a wait-and-see attitude towards the open beta news, possibly waiting for more substantive data on user activity and revenue monetization [0].

The game market in January 2026 is extremely competitive, with 32 new games scheduled for launch, posing direct competitive pressure on the Goose Goose Duck mobile game [4]. Tencent’s Assault Fire: Future will be launched on January 13, and Hypergryph’s Arknights: Endfield will be released on January 22; both products have strong user bases and distribution resources. Against this backdrop, the Goose Goose Duck mobile game needs to prove its conversion efficiency of 20 million pre-registered users and long-term retention capability.

WeChat Mini Games officially upgraded its IAP mini-game incentive policy on January 1, 2026, with the platform effectively transferring benefits to developers [4]. This policy change may further boost the mini-game creation ecosystem, providing a favorable distribution environment for the Goose Goose Duck mobile game. Coupled with the arrival of the winter vacation and Spring Festival peak season, the game’s DAU and monthly revenue are expected to hit new highs.

Currently, all 9 analysts have given Kingsoft a Buy rating, with 0 Sell ratings, and the average target price of HK$41.33 implies a potential upside of about 39.15% [0]. The target price range is from HK$33.51 to HK$51.96, indicating that institutional investors hold a positive attitude towards the company’s long-term development, but have different judgments on the strength of short-term catalysts.

: Today’s stock price fell 1.34% with significant volume shrinkage, indicating a tepid market reaction to the open beta news. The RSI technical indicator is in the neutral range of 48.84, the KDJ indicator is bullish but a pullback risk needs to be wary of, and the stock price is currently oscillating in the middle of the range with an unclear direction [0].

: The actual revenue performance of the mobile game after launch remains to be verified. There are uncertainties about whether the 20 million pre-registered users can be effectively converted into paying users, as well as the long-term user retention rate. In addition, the intensified competition in the game industry, with multiple competing products launching in January, may divert user attention [4].

: The DCF valuation model shows extreme undervaluation, but the huge gap between the current price and the model assumptions may reflect the market’s cautious attitude towards growth expectations. Investors need to be wary of the risk of overly optimistic model assumptions [0].

: The Hong Kong stock market is currently volatile overall, with the Hang Seng Tech Index falling 0.03% today. The company will release its next earnings report on March 24, 2026, and the performance fulfillment at that time will become an important verification node for the stock price [0].

: If the DAU and monthly revenue after the open beta significantly exceed market expectations, coupled with the Spring Festival peak season effect, the stock price is expected to usher in a valuation recovery rally.

: The upgrade of WeChat Mini Games’ IAP incentive policy brings substantial benefits to mini-game developers, and Kingsoft, as a leading player, is expected to fully benefit from it.

: The current stock price is in the lower-middle area between the 52-week low (HK$27.24) and the 52-week high (HK$47.50). If fundamental improvements are coupled with a recovery in market sentiment, there is significant room for valuation recovery [0].

Kingsoft Corporation (03888.HK)'s investment value mainly revolves around the core catalyst of the Goose Goose Duck mobile game. The game has positive factors such as official IP advantages, live streaming-linked marketing, and a large scale of pre-registered users, but the tepid short-term stock price reaction reflects that the market has already priced in the news or is taking a wait-and-see attitude.

Technically, the stock price is currently oscillating in the range of HK$28.71 (20-day moving average support) to HK$29.84 (resistance level), waiting for a breakout signal. The volume shrinkage indicates a decline in market participation; if there is a lack of substantive positive catalysts in the future, the consolidation pattern may continue [0].

From a valuation perspective, the DCF model shows extreme undervaluation, but it needs to be evaluated prudently in combination with the market competitive landscape and macroeconomic environment. The consensus of unanimous bullishness from analysts provides certain support for the stock price, but investors should pay attention to the performance verification window brought by the earnings report release in late March. Considering the risks and opportunities comprehensively, it is recommended to continuously track changes in user activity, revenue monetization, and market competition dynamics of the Goose Goose Duck mobile game.

[0] Jinling Analysis Database - Technical Analysis, Financial Analysis, DCF Valuation Data

[1] Sina Finance - Goose Goose Duck Open Beta Launches Today, Fully Upgrading Mobile Social Deduction Experience

[2] Sina Finance - Huya and Kingsoft World Games Co-Publish Goose Goose Duck Mobile Game, Open Beta Launches Today

[3] NetEase News - Topped the Charts! Over 20 Million Pre-Registered Users! Goose Goose Duck Mobile Game is Finally Here

[4] Sohu Games - 32 New Games Scheduled for January: Assault Fire, Goose Goose Duck, Endfield