Sunac China (01918.HK) Hot Stock Analysis: Investment Value Assessment After Winding-Up Petition Dismissal and Debt Restructuring

Sunac China (01918.HK) has recently become a hot target in the Hong Kong stock market, with the core driver being

[1][2][3]. The winding-up petition was initially filed by in January 2025, involving a US$30 million loan default incident[3]. With the court order dismissing the petition, the company’s short-term legal risks have been substantially eliminated, and market confidence has been boosted.

The market responded positively on the day: Sunac China’s stock price surged by as much as 4.69% intraday, with a closing gain of approximately 3.13%. Main funds showed a net inflow trend, with a single-day net inflow exceeding HK$20 million[5]. This trend reflects investors’ positive interpretation of the news of the elimination of winding-up risks, and also won the company a valuable time window for advancing debt restructuring.

, Sunac China announced the full completion of its offshore debt restructuring, a key milestone for the company to resolve its debt crisis[2][3]. According to official disclosures, this restructuring involved the full discharge and forgiveness of approximately of existing debt[2][3]. Specifically, the debt was converted into two types of mandatory convertible bonds with a conversion price of HK$6.8 per share, which represents a significant premium over the current stock price. In addition, the HK$858 million Jiyou loan was restructured, of which HK$300.3 million was extended for 10 years, effectively easing short-term debt repayment pressure.

In terms of onshore bonds, the company has cumulatively cancelled approximately

, with the remaining RMB4.8 billion extended to June 2034[4]. This arrangement reflects creditors’ confidence in Sunac’s long-term development prospects, while also gaining sufficient time for the company’s business adjustment. However, investors must clearly recognize that as of June 30, 2025, the company’s total liabilities still amounted to , of which current liabilities due within one year were approximately [3]. The offshore debt involved in this restructuring is equivalent to approximately RMB67.5 billion, [3], so the road to debt resolution still has a long way to go.

The December 2025 and full-year operating data released by the company show

[1][6].

was quite impressive: contracted sales reached , a year-on-year increase of ; contracted sales area was 272,000 square meters, a year-on-year increase of [1][6]. Although the average sales price fell 14.4% year-on-year to RMB10,850 per square meter, the significant rebound in sales volume indicates that market demand is gradually recovering.

data continued to show pressure: contracted sales were , a year-on-year decrease of ; cumulative sales area was 1.453 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of [1][6]. The increase in average sales price (year-on-year +21.6% to RMB25,350 per square meter) partially offset the negative impact of the decline in sales volume, but the overall trend of shrinking sales scale has not been fundamentally reversed.

From a financial perspective, the company’s first-half 2025 revenue was only RMB19.9 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 41.7%[3]; contracted sales in the first nine months of 2025 fell 50% year-on-year[3], and the full-year decline narrowed but remained negative. This performance reflects that the operating pressure faced by Sunac against the backdrop of the overall downturn in the real estate industry cannot be fully resolved in the short term.

, a notable institutional activity signal emerged in the market: a major shareholder deposited shares with a market value of approximately into The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited, accounting for [7]. Such large-scale share depositing behavior is usually interpreted as a positive signal of restored confidence among institutional investors, which may indicate subsequent share increases or financing arrangements.

From the perspective of analyst ratings, TipRanks data shows that Sunac China’s current rating is

, with a target price set at [10]. This target price represents a potential upside of approximately 13% compared to the current stock price, but given the uncertainty of the company’s fundamentals, analysts’ overall attitude is cautious. The TipRanks Smart Score system shows that the stock received high scores in the and dimensions, the indicator is positive, but scores in the and dimensions are low[9][11].

In terms of social media sentiment, investment communities such as Snowball have active discussions, with both bullish and bearish views[12]. Some investors expressed expectations for the

trait of the company’s actual controller Sun Hongbin, believing that if operations improve in 2026, the stock price may rebound significantly; other investors are cautious about the long-term accumulation trend, focusing on whether the company can achieve a turnaround (including restructuring gains) in 2026.

From a technical indicator perspective, Sunac China’s stock price shows

[8]:

• The stock price has broken below the middle band of the Bollinger Bands, indicating a weak technical position
• It has lost support from the 5-day, 10-day and 20-day moving averages
• The moving average system presents a
  bearish arrangement
  pattern, and the medium-term trend still needs to be repaired

• RSI (Relative Strength Index) has entered the
  oversold zone
• CCI (Commodity Channel Index) has entered the oversold zone
• Williams %R (WMSR) has entered a
  strong oversold level

Traditional technical analysis theory shows that when multiple oscillators enter the oversold zone simultaneously, it often means that short-term selling pressure may have been fully released, and there is a possibility of a technical rebound. However, it should be noted that the repair of the oversold zone requires the cooperation of trading volume; if there is no incremental capital inflow, the rebound height may be limited.

From the price range perspective, the current stock price is approximately HK$1.33[1], with

. Technical support levels focus on HK$1.24 (52-week low) and the HK$1.28-1.30 range; resistance levels are located at HK$1.36 (recent high), HK$1.50 (analyst target price) and HK$2.40 (52-week high).

Although breakthroughs have been made in offshore debt restructuring, the company’s overall debt burden remains heavy. As of the end of June 2025, total liabilities were RMB805.9 billion, and current liabilities due within one year were approximately RMB759 billion[3], forming a huge gap with the scale of restructured debt. The progress of onshore debt resolution, subsequent debt arrangements and refinancing capabilities will continue to affect the company’s operational stability.

First-half 2025 revenue fell 41.7% year-on-year[3], and full-year sales fell 21.8% year-on-year, showing that the main business continues to be under pressure. Against the backdrop of the overall downturn in the real estate market, the sustainability of sales recovery is uncertain.

The company is involved in , with a total claimed amount of approximately [3]. Large-scale litigation not only consumes the company’s resources but may also interfere with normal operations.

According to the latest market data, Sunac China’s short selling ratio is approximately , with short selling amount of approximately HK$23.6 million[1], indicating that some institutional investors still maintain a bearish attitude.

China’s real estate industry is in a period of deep adjustment, and peer competitors such as Agile Group and KWG Group are also facing pressures such as winding-up petitions, putting pressure on the overall industry valuation.

The year-to-date (2026) decline is approximately , and the performance in the past 5 days is [9], significantly underperforming the Hang Seng Index’s performance during the same period (approximately +3.16%), indicating that market confidence in the company’s fundamentals still needs to be restored.

Sunac China is in a critical window period for resolving its debt crisis. The dismissal of the winding-up petition and the completion of offshore debt restructuring have won the company a valuable breathing space. Looking forward, the following dimensions deserve continuous attention from investors:

: The progress of onshore debt resolution, the settlement of litigation cases, and refinancing arrangements will be key variables affecting the company’s liquidity.

: Whether the significant rebound in December sales data can continue in 2026 will directly determine the company’s cash flow status and the degree of fundamental improvement.

: The cultivation progress of new growth engines such as ice-snow business may provide the company with differentiated competitive advantages.

: The direction of China’s real estate regulation policies will systematically affect industry valuation levels and the company’s development prospects.

From an investment perspective, Sunac China is a

target, suitable for investors with higher risk appetites. The current stock price has partially reflected the positive news of the elimination of winding-up risks and the completion of debt restructuring, but the substantial improvement of the company’s fundamentals still needs to be verified by sales data and performance. Technical indicators suggest that there may be an oversold rebound opportunity in the short term, but the medium-term trend is still constrained by the bearish arrangement of the moving average system. Investors should closely monitor changes in the above key observation points and carefully assess the risk-return ratio.