Analysis of the Commercialization Prospects of Large Models in Medical Surgery and Their Impact on Valuation

Based on collected data and analysis, I present to you an in-depth research report on

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The global surgical robot market is in a period of rapid growth. According to Frost & Sullivan’s forecast, the global surgical robot market size will exceed

(over RMB 220 billion) by 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of from 2022 to 2026 [1]. AI-powered surgical robots, as a high-growth sub-segment, are projected to reach a market size of in 2025, representing an 18% increase from USD 6.8 billion in 2024 [2].

• 2023: AI-powered surgical robot market size reached USD 5.5 billion, with a growth rate of 12%
• 2024: Market size grew to USD 6.8 billion, with a growth rate of 15%
• 2025: Projected to reach USD 7.7-8.02 billion, with a growth rate of 18%
• 2026: Global surgical robot market is projected to exceed USD 32 billion
• Global installed base of surgical robots is projected to exceed 2,100 units

The Chinese surgical robot market is accelerating its development. From January to November 2025, sales volume of surgical robots in the Chinese market reached approximately

(a 28% year-on-year increase), with sales revenue of approximately (a 14% year-on-year increase) [1]. The penetration rate of surgical robots increased from 3.7% in 2020 to 11.2% in 2025, but it is still far lower than that in developed medical markets such as the United States.

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, filling the technical gap in in-vivo animal experiments in this field and marking a key step in the deep integration of the AI industry with the medical field [1].

This breakthrough follows a research result published in Science Robotics in July 2025 — the SRT-H surgical robot developed by Johns Hopkins University successfully completed autonomous cholecystectomy without human intervention in animal experiments with a

, becoming the world’s first robot capable of fully autonomous surgery [1].

Company	Technology Route	Progress	Regulatory Status
Moon Surgical	Maestro Surgical Robot	Treated over 1,100 patients	FDA 510(k) clearance (2024) [3]
Intuitive Surgical	AI Upgrade for Da Vinci System	~76% market share for 5th-generation system	Continuous iteration
Medtronic	Hugo Surgical Robot	FDA-cleared	Launched in EU, Japan, and Greater Bay Area of China
Zimmer Biomet	Monogram System	AI-navigated knee replacement	Acquired for USD 17.7 billion (2025) [4]

• Received FDA clearance for its Wi-Fi/5G connectivity and AI-driven ScoPilot program in July 2025
• A Predetermined Change Control Plan (PCCP) allows for faster deployment of software updates in the future
• Enables edge-to-cloud data capture and analysis via Nvidia Holoscan and IGX platforms [3]

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2026 will mark a critical window for the

:

• Guidelines for the Establishment of Medical Service Price Items for Surgical and Therapeutic Auxiliary Operations will be fully implemented in 2026, incorporating 36 auxiliary operation items and clarifying charging standards and reduction rules
• The National Healthcare Security Administration issued a notice in September 2025, promoting classified coding of medical consumables related to surgical robots
• Medical insurance pays for the
  additional clinical value
  created by robots (such as precision, recovery speed, reduced complications, etc.) rather than directly paying for the equipment [1]

AI technology is now integrated throughout the entire cycle of “R&D — Training — Clinical Practice”:

• R&D Phase:
  Johnson & Johnson collaborates with Nvidia to build high-fidelity digital twins using the Nvidia Isaac and Omniverse libraries
• Training Phase:
  AI builds virtual operating rooms to replicate patient anatomical structures and clinical scenarios
• Clinical Phase:
  AI algorithms assist surgeons in precise instrument control, supporting single surgeons to perform multiple tasks simultaneously [1]

Evolving from single auxiliary functions to full-process intelligence:

• Remote Surgery: 5G + cloud collaboration enables two-way latency of less than 50 ms for inter-provincial surgeries and less than 150 ms for intercontinental surgeries
• Digital Ecosystem: Surgical robots have become core hubs for medical data. For example, CMR Surgical’s Versius Connect APP can track equipment usage, case volume, and other data [1]

Challenge Type	Specific Content	Impact Level
Regulatory Uncertainty	Regulatory system for AI medical products is still improving	High
Long Commercialization Cycle	3-5 years required from animal experiments to clinical application	High
Cost Pressure	High initial investment and maintenance costs for equipment	Medium
Talent Gap	High demand for systematic operation training for medical staff	Medium
Data Security	Risks of medical AI data leakage need to be prevented	Medium

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• Current Stock Price:
  HK$25.03
  , 52-week trading range: HK$8.58-HK$33.70
• 2025 Stock Price Increase:
  123%
  , 1-year price change:
  169.35%
• Market Capitalization: Approximately
  HK$25.9 billion
  , 12-month target price:
  HK$29.47
  , potential upside:
  +17.74%
• 4 analysts gave a “Buy” rating, 0 recommended selling [5]

1. Technological Innovation Premium
   • AI autonomous surgery technology represents the next development direction
   • Technology-leading enterprises can obtain a
     10-30% valuation premium
   • Case: MicroPort MedBot’s stock price increased by 123% in 2025 due to breakthroughs in the MicroGenius large model

2. Expanded Market Space
   • AI technology lowers surgical thresholds and expands potential surgical volume
   • Annual market growth of 25%+ drives valuation increases
   • Global market is projected to exceed USD 32 billion by 2026

3. Policy Support
   • Dual policies of medical insurance + service pricing are implemented, gradually removing commercialization barriers
   • Valuation logic shifts from “expectations” to “performance”

4. Domestic Substitution Opportunities
   • In 2025, the NMPA issued nearly 60 registration certificates for surgical robots, with domestic brands dominating
   • Increased market share of local enterprises leads to valuation re-rating

1. Long Commercialization Cycle:
   Short-term performance realization is difficult, leading to high valuation volatility
2. Regulatory Uncertainty:
   Compliance costs and uncertainties affect valuation
3. Intensified Competition:
   Giants such as Mindray and United Imaging have entered the market, putting pressure on profit margins
4. Insufficient Profitability:
   Most enterprises are still in a loss-making state, with valuation mainly based on price-to-sales (PS) ratio

Company	Market Capitalization	Valuation Characteristics	Investment Rating
Intuitive Surgical (ISRG)	Approximately USD 200 billion	Mature profitability, high PE ratio	Fair Valuation ($596) [6]
MicroPort MedBot (02252.HK)	Approximately HK$25.9 billion	High growth, loss-making	“Buy” (+17.74% upside) [5]
Medtronic (RAS Business)	Approximately USD 15 billion	Steady growth	Watch
Stryker	Approximately USD 18 billion	Orthopedics leader	Watch
Jingfeng Medical	Upcoming IPO	Third listed in Hong Kong	Observe

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1. Technology Leaders:
   Enterprises mastering core AI autonomous surgery technologies will gain first-mover advantages
2. Beneficiaries of Domestic Substitution:
   Against the backdrop of medical insurance cost control, cost-effective domestic brands will accelerate market penetration
3. Platform-Based Enterprises:
   Enterprises with platform capabilities integrating “equipment + consumables + services” will enjoy higher valuation premiums
4. Overseas Expanders:
   Enterprises successfully entering high-end markets such as Europe, the Middle East, and Latin America will have greater growth potential

Risk Category	Specific Risk	Response Strategy
Regulatory Risk	Changes in approval policies for AI medical products	Focus on enterprises with strong compliance capabilities
Technological Risk	Uncertainty in technological routes	Diversify investments to avoid concentration
Market Risk	Price wars caused by intensified competition	Focus on enterprises with cost advantages
Policy Risk	Pressure from medical insurance cost control	Focus on products with clear clinical value
Liquidity Risk	High volatility of small-cap companies	Pay attention to position management

1. MicroPort MedBot (02252.HK):
   Leading in AI autonomous surgery technology, accelerating overseas expansion, 12-month target price: HK$29.47
2. Intuitive Surgical (ISRG):
   Industry leader, continuous innovation in AI and digital tools, fairly valued
3. Jingfeng Medical:
   Upcoming IPO in Hong Kong, leading in single-port surgical robot technology

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The commercialization prospects of large models in medical surgery are

, but the pace of development should be viewed rationally:

1. Short-term (2026-2027):
   Policy breakthroughs will accelerate commercialization, but performance realization still takes time
2. Mid-term (2028-2029):
   Large-scale clinical application will drive rapid penetration rate growth
3. Long-term (2030 and beyond):
   The market will enter a mature stage, and enterprises with advantages in technology, cost, and channels will win out

The impact of AI autonomous surgery technology on the valuation of medical robotics companies presents a

— technological innovation brings valuation premiums, but long commercialization cycles and regulatory uncertainties also increase valuation volatility risks. Investors should focus on .

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[1] Tencent News, “Dual Policies of Medical Insurance + Service Pricing Implemented, Trillion-Yuan Surgical Robot Track Welcomes New Situation in 2026”, https://news.qq.com/rain/a/20251229A04GDA00

[2] Liv Hospital, “Robots in the Operating Room: 7 Key Facts About AI Surgery Robots in 2025”, https://int.livhospital.com/robots-in-the-operating-room-7-key-facts-about-ai-surgery-robots-in-2025/

[3] Fierce Biotech, “Moon Surgical enters new phase, updating robots with AI”, https://www.fiercebiotech.com/medtech/moons-maestro-surgical-platform-reaches-stars-ai-additions

[4] LinkedIn, “Medical Robotics Review 2025”, https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/medical-robotics-review-2025-stephan-hulsbergen--djcoe

[5] Investing.com, “MicroPort MedBot-B (2252) Latest Stock Price Quote”, https://cn.investing.com/equities/shanghai-microport-medbot

[6] Simply Wall St, “Can Intuitive Surgical’s Robotic Surgery Growth Justify Its Expensive Valuation”, https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/healthcare/nasdaq-isrg/intuitive-surgical/news/can-intuitive-surgicals-robotic-surgery-growth-justify-its-e