In-Depth Analysis of the Rationality of Crinetics Pharmaceuticals (CRNX) IPO Pricing

Crinetics Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ: CRNX) is a clinical-stage pharmaceutical company focused on endocrine diseases and endocrine-related tumors, headquartered in San Diego, California. The company is committed to the discovery, development, and commercialization of novel small-molecule therapies targeting G protein-coupled receptors (GPCRs) [0][1].

: $4.36 billion
: $45.95 (consistent with IPO pricing)
: $24.10 - $53.55
: 0.20 (low correlation with the market)

Product Name	Indication	Development Stage	Key Milestones	Competitive Advantages
PALSONIFY™ (paltusotine)	Acromegaly	FDA-Approved	FDA approval in September 2025	First oral selective SST2 receptor agonist
Atumelnant (CRN04894)	Congenital Adrenal Hyperplasia (CAH)	Phase 3	First patient enrolled in December 2025	First small-molecule ACTH receptor antagonist to enter clinical trials; granted FDA Orphan Drug Designation
CRN09682	SST2+ Neuroendocrine Tumors	Phase 1/2	First patient dosed in Q4 2025	First drug candidate from the NDC platform
CRN12755	Graves’ Disease	Preclinical	IND-enabling studies	TSHR antagonist candidate
CRN10329	Autosomal Dominant Polycystic Kidney Disease	Preclinical	Lead candidate development stage	SST3 agonist

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: The $45.95 IPO pricing is relatively reasonable

Based on the following multi-dimensional analysis, this pricing level has received broad recognition from the market and analysts [0][2]:

Dimension	Assessment	Explanation
Commercialization Milestones	⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐	The company has transitioned from a pure R&D stage to a commercial stage; PALSONIFY™ received FDA approval in September 2025
Cash Flow Position	⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐	Total current assets of $2.073 billion (including $1.109 billion in cash + $981 million in investment securities), sufficient to support 3-4 years of operations
Analyst Consensus	⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐	94% of analysts have assigned a Buy rating, with an average target price of $82.00, representing a 78.5% upside potential
Pipeline Value	⭐⭐⭐⭐	Atumelnant has entered Phase 3, with significant first-mover advantage and FDA Orphan Drug Designation
Market Outlook	⭐⭐⭐⭐	The acromegaly treatment market has a CAGR of 8.9%, with an expected size of $2.49 billion by 2032

Dimension	Risk Level	Explanation
Revenue Realization	Medium-High	No substantial product revenue has been generated yet (Q3 revenue was only $143,000 from licensing fees)
Valuation Multiples	High	The P/S ratio is as high as 2840x, with valuation highly dependent on future revenue realization
Widening Losses	Medium-High	YTD net loss of $343 million, a 57% increase compared to the same period last year

[0][3]:

Metric	Value	Industry Comparison
Cash and Cash Equivalents	$1.109B	Sufficient
Investment Securities	$0.981B	Sufficient
Total Current Assets	$1.121B	Healthy
Current Ratio	15.12x	Far exceeds the industry average (typically >1.5x)
Total Liabilities	$0.124B	Low debt ratio
Shareholders’ Equity	$1.072B	Robust

:

• YTD cash outflow from operating activities: $285 million
• YTD R&D expenditure: $247 million (42% year-over-year increase)
• YTD general and administrative expenses: $138 million (92% year-over-year increase)

Rating Agency	Rating	Target Price	Date
Morgan Stanley	Overweight	-	2026-01-06
Citizens	Market Outperform	-	2025-11-07
Oppenheimer	Outperform	-	2025-09-30
Leerink Partners	Outperform	-	2025-09-29
Consensus Target Price	Buy (94%)	$82.00	-
Target Price Range	-	$36.00 - $143.00	-

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For biopharmaceutical companies that have not yet generated substantial revenue but have approved products and late-stage pipelines, valuation should take the following factors into comprehensive consideration [4][5]:

Core Valuation = Pipeline Value + Cash Value - Debt - R&D Risk Discount

Valuation Component	Assessment Method	Value Contribution
Commercialization Value of PALSONIFY™	DCF (based on a $1.55 billion market)	High
Option Value of Atumelnant	rNPV (Phase 3 success probability ~60%)	Medium-High
Early-Stage Pipeline Value	rNPV (Phase 1/2 success probability ~30%)	Medium
Cash and Investments	Market Value	$2.09B

Company Type	Market Capitalization Range	Revenue Multiple	Development Stage
Crinetics (Approved + Phase 3)	$4.36B	N/A	Commercial
Acromegaly Peer Companies	$2.5-8.0B	8-15x	Commercial/Clinical
Average for Rare Disease Biopharmaceuticals	$3.0-10.0B	12-20x	Clinical Stage
Average for Early-Stage Biotechs	$2.0-15.0B	15-25x	R&D Stage

, and its pricing is reasonable.

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• 2024 Market Size
  : $1.55 billion
• 2032 Projected Market Size
  : $2.49 billion
• CAGR
  : 8.9% [6][7]
• Number of Patients in the US
  : Approximately 36,000 (17,000 undiagnosed)
• Target Patients
  : 11,500 actively managed patients

:

• Current treatments are dominated by injectable somatostatin receptor ligands (e.g., octreotide, lanreotide)
• As the
  first oral selective non-peptide SST2 agonist
  , PALSONIFY™ has compliance advantages

• Global Patients
  : Approximately 75,000-80,000
• Limitations of Current Treatments
  : Long-term glucocorticoid replacement therapy, accompanied by severe side effects
• Advantages of Atumelnant
  :
  • First small-molecule ACTH receptor antagonist to enter clinical trials
  • Phase 2 trials showed an average 80% reduction in androstenedione
  • Granted FDA Orphan Drug Designation (7 years of market exclusivity)

Metric	2024	2034 Projection	CAGR
Global Market Size	$195.2B	$587.1B	11.6%
US Market Size	$76.9B	$184.7B	9.2%
North American Market Share	63%	Maintains dominance	-

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Indicator	Value	Signal Interpretation
MACD	No Crossover	Neutral to Weak
KDJ	K:33.8, D:46.9, J:7.4	Sell Signal
RSI (14)	Normal Range	No Overbought/Oversold Signal
Support Level	$44.61	Strong short-term support
Resistance Level	$47.95	Short-term resistance level

Period	Return Rate
5-Day	-1.44%
1-Month	-1.54%
3-Month	+10.24%
6-Month	+58.12%
1-Year	-8.99%
3-Year	+159.46%
Since IPO	+89.92%

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Assessment Dimension	Weight	Score	Weighted Score
Product Commercialization Progress	25%	5.0	1.25
Cash Flow Health	20%	5.0	1.00
Pipeline Value	25%	4.0	1.00
Market Outlook	15%	4.0	0.60
Analyst Consensus	15%	4.5	0.68
Comprehensive Score	100%	-	4.53

1. Entry Timing
   : The current stock price of $45.95 is close to the technical support level of $44.61, offering a favorable risk-reward ratio
2. Target Price
   : The analyst consensus target of $82.00 represents a 78.5% upside potential
3. Investment Logic
   :
   • Short-term: Focus on the commercialization execution of PALSONIFY™ and Q4 financial results
   • Medium-term: Focus on Atumelnant Phase 3 trial data (expected in mid-2026)
   • Long-term: Focus on European market approval and pipeline expansion

Risk Type	Specific Risk	Impact Level
Commercialization Risk	PALSONIFY™ sales fall short of expectations	Medium-High
Clinical Risk	Atumelnant Phase 3 failure	High
Regulatory Risk	EMA approval delay or rejection	Medium
Competitive Risk	Competitors launch superior therapies	Medium-High
Financing Risk	Need for additional financing in the future leading to equity dilution	Medium
Market Risk	Valuation correction in the biopharmaceutical sector as a whole	Medium

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, mainly based on the following core supporting logics:

1. Product Commercialization
   : FDA approval of PALSONIFY™ means the company has completed its strategic transition from the R&D stage to the commercial stage, with the valuation logic shifting from pipeline value method to revenue multiple method
2. Sufficient Cash Flow
   : Current assets of $2.073 billion provide a sufficient safety margin, enough to support the company in completing Atumelnant’s Phase 3 trials and subsequent commercialization preparations
3. Differentiated Pipeline Advantage
   : As the first small-molecule ACTH receptor antagonist to enter clinical trials, Atumelnant has significant first-mover advantage and policy benefits from FDA Orphan Drug Designation
4. High Recognition from Analysts
   : 94% Buy rating and 78.5% average target price upside potential reflect professional investment institutions’ optimistic expectations for the company’s commercialization prospects
5. Broad Market Outlook
   : The 8.9% CAGR of the acromegaly treatment market and the structural growth of the rare disease market provide a solid demand foundation for product sales

: Investors should pay attention to the potential impact of product commercialization execution progress, clinical trial results, and changes in the competitive landscape on valuation.

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[0] Jinling API Data - Company Overview, Financial Data and Technical Analysis of Crinetics Pharmaceuticals
[1] Crinetics Pharmaceuticals Official Website - Company and Pipeline Introduction (https://crinetics.com/pipeline/)
[2] Simply Wall St - CRNX Stock Analysis and Price Target (https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/pharmaceuticals-biotech/nasdaq-crnx/crinetics-pharmaceuticals)
[3] SEC.gov - CRNX 10-Q Filing (November 6, 2025) (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1658247/000165824725000019/crnx-20250930.htm)
[4] Market Research Future - Biopharmaceutical Valuation Methodology (https://www.biopharmavantage.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/Biotech-Comparables-company-valuation-Multiples-Method-BiopharmaVantage-Consulting.png)
[5] Baybridge Bio - Biotech IPO Valuation Analysis (https://www.baybridgebio.com/Images/biotech_ipos_valuation_ye_2023.png)
[6] Market.us - Acromegaly Treatment Market Analysis (https://market.us/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/Acromegaly-Treatment-Market-Size.png)
[7] Credence Research - Acromegaly Treatment Market (https://www.credenceresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/Acromegaly-Treatment-Market-Size-and-Segmentation.jpg)