A-Share Market Trading Volume Surpasses RMB 1 Trillion: Analysis of Market Sentiment Recovery and Spring Rally Trend

Based on the latest market data and multi-source information analysis, this report provides a systematic interpretation of the market implications of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets’ trading volume exceeding RMB 1 trillion, as well as an outlook on future market trends.

---

Based on the latest data, the A-share market showed a typical pattern of “rising volume with rising prices” on January 5, 2026 [1]:

Indicator	Data	Interpretation
Shanghai-Shenzhen Market Total Trading Volume	RMB 2.55 trillion	Increased by RMB 501.1 billion from the previous trading day
Shanghai Composite Index	4,023.42 points	Rose 1.38%, reclaiming the 4,000-point level
Number of Advancing Stocks	4,180 stocks	Accounting for over 80% of all listed stocks
Number of Stocks Hitting Daily Upper Limit	127 stocks	Notable profit-making effect

The recent surge in trading volume is driven by the combined action of multiple capital sources:

1. Retail Investor Sentiment Recovery
   : Post-holiday risk aversion among investors has eased significantly, with capital shifting from a wait-and-see stance to actively seeking opportunities [1]
2. Institutional Position Adjustment
   : Public funds are rotating positions from underperforming sectors such as consumer and healthcare to growth and cyclical sectors [2]
3. Contribution from Quantitative Trading
   : Expected to contribute RMB 300-400 billion, accounting for 8.5%-12% of total trading volume [2]
4. Margin Trading Capital Return
   : Margin trading balances are steadily increasing, with leveraged capital accelerating its entry into the market

Looking at A-share market history, there is a certain pattern between the duration of trading volume exceeding RMB 1 trillion and market trends:

Time Period	Consecutive Trading Days	Market Characteristics	Subsequent Trend
March-May 2015	26	Bull Market Initiation Phase	A major bull market followed
May-July 2015	43	Bull Market Top Zone	A stock market crash followed
July 2020	Approx. 10	Structural Bull Market	Maintained volatile upward trend
September-October 2024	Sustained Volume Surge	Liquidity-Driven	Volatility followed a sharp rally
January 2026	115+ days (with volume exceeding RMB 1.5 trillion)	Simultaneous Volume and Price Growth + Spring Rally	To be observed

---

1. Policy Dividend Release
   : 2026 is the first year of the 15th Five-Year Plan, and policy support for the capital market remains strong [1]
2. Loose Liquidity Environment
   : The Federal Reserve is expected to continue its interest rate cut cycle in 2026, enhancing the attractiveness of RMB-denominated assets [1]
3. Continuous Improvement in Capital Conditions
   : Institutional allocation demand is strong at the beginning of the year, and incremental capital inflows are expected
4. Strengthened Earnings Support
   : Corporate profits have entered a moderate recovery channel, with improved fundamentals supporting valuations

1. Valuation Pressure Emerges
   : Some hot sectors have decoupled from fundamentals, leading to high risks in chasing upward trends [3]
2. Uncertainty About Volume Sustainability
   : Dongguan Securities pointed out that there have been signs of slowing in the pace of subsequent capital inflows [1]
3. External Disturbance Risks
   : Geopolitical issues may amplify short-term volatility, increasing the difficulty of market forecasting [1]
4. Profit-Taking Pressure
   : After a short-term sharp rally, there is a need for consolidation, and investors need to guard against pullback risks

• The Shanghai Composite Index has broken through the 4,000-point psychological level and stands above all moving averages
• Trading volume continues to expand, indicating sufficient bullish momentum
• A 12-day consecutive upward trend confirms the uptrend

• After consecutive volume surges, investors need to be wary of the historical pattern of “sky-high volume accompanied by sky-high prices”
• Some technical indicators show overbought signals
• Sector rotation is accelerating, and market divergences are widening

Institution	View	Core Logic
Huaxi Securities	Bullish	Spring rally started early, and the bull market pattern remains unchanged
CITIC Securities	Bullish-leaning	Investors are bullish, and the probability of volatile upward movement is high
CITIC Construction Investment	Bullish	The probability of a spring offensive is high
Zhongyuan Securities	Cautious	The possibility of consolidation to accumulate momentum is high
Dongguan Securities	Neutral	There is upside potential, but investors need to guard against volatility

---

• The current market is in an uptrend, and shorting against the trend is not advisable
• Maintain position flexibility and reserve room to respond to volatility

• Technology Growth
  : AI, semiconductors, brain-computer interfaces, commercial aerospace, etc. [1]
• Cyclical Sectors
  : Valuation recovery opportunities in finance, infrastructure, consumption, etc.
• Earnings Leaders
  : High-quality enterprises with core competitiveness

1. Position Control
   : It is recommended to maintain a 50%-70% position, avoiding full-position investment
2. Stop-Loss Setting
   : Set a 5%-8% stop-loss level for individual stocks
3. Diversified Investment
   : Don’t put all your eggs in one basket
4. Focus on Fundamentals
   : Avoid pure concept speculation and return to value investing

• The logic of revaluation of Chinese assets remains unchanged, and high-quality enterprises have long-term investment value
• Maintain investment resolve and do not waver due to short-term volatility
• Adopt reverse thinking and seek layout opportunities during market consolidations

---

Supported by multiple favorable factors such as policy support, ample liquidity, and improved capital conditions, the spring rally is expected to continue in the future. However, investors also need to remain vigilant against risk factors including valuation pressure, changes in trading volume, and external disturbances, maintain a rational investment mindset, and manage risks effectively.

Follow the trend, select high-quality sectors, control positions, manage risks, and maintain a long-term perspective.

---

[1] The Paper - “A-Share Market Starts 2026 with a Bang: Shanghai Composite Index Breaks 4,000 Points, Total Trading Volume Exceeds RMB 2.5 Trillion” (https://www.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_32317897)

[2] Eastmoney - “Unveiling the Trillion-Yuan Quantitative Funds That Have Risen to Prominence” (https://fund.eastmoney.com/a/1623,202109082086501382.html)

[3] National Business Daily - “Pass-the-Buck Effect is Obvious, Multiple A-Share Companies Warn Investors of Risks” (https://www.nbd.com.cn/articles/2026-01-06/4209824.html)

[4] Securities Times - “A-Share Market Starts 2026 with a Surge of Over RMB 500 Billion, Shanghai Composite Index Records 12 Consecutive Gains and Breaks 4,000 Points” (https://www.stcn.com/article/detail/3572444.html)