Lithium Carbonate Price Breaks RMB130,000/ton: Analysis of Marginal Cost Changes Amid Supply-Demand Mismatch

Based on the latest market data and in-depth analysis, here is a systematic report on the price trend of lithium carbonate and marginal cost changes of different lithium extraction routes:

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The lithium carbonate market is experiencing a strong rebound in its third cycle. Looking back at the trend over the past three years:

Stage	Time Period	Price Range	Core Driving Factors
Rapid Decline Period	Nov 2022 - Feb 2025	RMB600,000 → RMB60,000/ton	Supply-demand surplus, capacity consolidation
Recovery Period	Feb - Dec 2025	RMB60,000 → RMB130,000/ton	Explosive energy storage demand, supply bottlenecks emerge
Acceleration Period	Dec 2025 - Jan 2026	Breaks RMB130,000/ton	Mine resumption delayed, continuous inventory destocking

Currently, the lithium carbonate price has achieved an

[1][2] from the low in June 2025 (RMB59,000-60,000/ton), and has risen approximately 80% from its intrayear low. The price has risen smoothly from the bottom of RMB72,000/ton to RMB130,000/ton, and has surged from RMB90,000/ton to above RMB130,000/ton in the two weeks since December, showing an accelerating trend [1].

• Domestic mines
  : Leading mica mines (such as CATL’s “Jianxiawo” mine) are stuck in the safety license approval process, with resumption delayed to after the 2026 Spring Festival or even June [1][3]
• Spodumene
  : Operating rate has reached a historical high of around 70%, with limited room for further increase
• Salt lake and mica
  : Other primary lithium resources are operating at near-full capacity, with supply release reaching a phased limit

• Explosive energy storage demand
  : Expected to reach 900-1000GWh in 2026, representing a 60%-70% increase from 2025 [1]
• Cathode materials
  : Leading enterprises operated at near-full capacity in November-December 2025
• Inventory cycle
  : Entered a weekly destocking cycle since August 2025, with low downstream inventory levels

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Based on the latest market data, the cost structures of different lithium extraction routes show significant differences:

Lithium Extraction Route	Cost Range (RMB10,000/ton)	Average Cost	Cost Characteristics
Salt Lake Lithium Extraction	3-5	4.0	Lowest cost route
Spodumene Lithium Extraction	5.5-8	6.5	Mainstream route, mainly dependent on imported ores
Lepidolite Lithium Extraction	6-13	9.0	Cost reduced after technological progress
African Pegmatite Lithium Extraction	7.5-11	9.5	Emerging route, high cost elasticity

Comprehensive industry research reports and listed company disclosures [4][5]

• Ore/brine cost: ~50%
• Energy cost (evaporation): ~25%
• Auxiliary material cost: ~15%
• Labor and depreciation: ~10%

• Cash cost is only RMB30,000-50,000/ton, at the bottom of the global cost curve [4][5]
• Representative enterprises: Qinghai and Tibet salt lake enterprises such as Salt Lake Co., Ltd. and Zangge Mining
• Comprehensive utilization of by-products (potassium, boron, etc.) can further dilute costs

• Accelerated development of Tibet salt lakes, with gradual capacity release
• New technologies such as adsorption and membrane separation drive cost reduction

• Spodumene ore cost: ~65% (largest proportion)
• Energy cost: ~15%
• Auxiliary material cost (sulfuric acid, soda ash, etc.): ~12%
• Labor and depreciation: ~8%

• Still the most mainstream production route, dependent on imported ores
• Australian spodumene concentrate prices fluctuate with lithium carbonate prices, with cost transmission lagging
• The cash cost center of domestic existing projects is RMB45,000-55,000/ton [5]

• Spodumene prices rebound with lithium carbonate prices, increasing costs of import routes
• Accelerated development of African lithium mines, but high transportation and infrastructure costs

• High-grade lepidolite lithium extraction: RMB70,000-80,000/ton
• Low-grade lepidolite projects: Over RMB100,000/ton

• Lithium extraction technology continues to mature, with corrosion problems gradually resolved
• Comprehensive utilization of by-products (potassium, rubidium, cesium, etc.) improves economic benefits
• Industrial cluster effect formed in Yichun, Jiangxi

• 27 mining rights in Yichun area were canceled in 2025, tightening supply [2]
• Leading enterprises have reduced costs to below the industry average

• Most cash costs are concentrated in the range of RMB75,000-110,000/ton [5]
• Incomplete infrastructure pushes up operating costs
• Large resource reserves, broad development potential

• Policy changes in regions such as Zimbabwe (5% export tax imposed in 2025, export ban to take effect in 2027) [3]
• Chinese enterprises accelerate layout, such as Zijin Mining’s 3Q Lithium Salt Lake Project
• Large room for cost optimization, with continuous iteration of technical routes

Calculated at the current price of RMB130,000/ton, the gross profit margin of each route is as follows:

Lithium Extraction Route	Average Cost	Profit Space	Gross Profit Margin
Salt Lake Lithium Extraction	RMB40,000/ton	RMB90,000/ton	69.2%
Spodumene Lithium Extraction	RMB65,000/ton	RMB65,000/ton	50.0%
Lepidolite Lithium Extraction	RMB90,000/ton	RMB40,000/ton	30.8%
African Pegmatite	RMB95,000/ton	RMB35,000/ton	26.9%

• Salt lake lithium extraction enterprises have the most lucrative profit margins
• Profit margins of high-cost lepidolite projects (>RMB100,000/ton) are compressed to below RMB30,000/ton
• If prices fall below RMB100,000/ton, high-cost lepidolite and African projects will face the risk of losses

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As lithium carbonate prices rise:

• Tight ore circulation pushes up ore prices [1]
• Rebound in spodumene concentrate prices increases costs of import routes
• Smelting processing fees remain unchanged, with cost pressure dominated by the ore segment

• When prices fall below RMB80,000/ton, most African mine projects reach their cost thresholds [5]
• Low-grade lepidolite projects (cost >RMB100,000/ton) have weak risk resistance
• Against the background of expected market surplus, high-cost lepidolite lithium extraction projects are the first to face losses

• Salt lake lithium extraction enterprises have the strongest profitability
• Spodumene projects with self-owned mines have obvious cost advantages
• Enterprises with full industry chain layout have strong anti-cycle capabilities

Indicator	2025	2026 Forecast
Global Supply (10,000 tons LCE)	~100	~130
Global Demand (10,000 tons LCE)	~110	~143
Supply-Demand Pattern	Tight Balance	Dual Growth in Supply and Demand (Growth Rate ~30%)

• Short-term (2026 Q1)
  : First target at RMB150,000/ton
• Mid-term
  : If demand continues to be verified, it is expected to challenge RMB200,000/ton
• Risk Warning
  : Need to pay attention to the impact of the resumption timeline of the “Jianxiawo” mine and the production cut and price support strategy of downstream cathode materials [1][2]

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At the current price:

• Upstream lithium resource enterprises
  : Lucrative profits, especially salt lake lithium extraction enterprises
• Midstream material enterprises
  : Profit margins compressed, with maintenance and production cut actions to support prices
• Downstream battery enterprises
  : Increased cost transmission pressure

• Salt Lake Co., Ltd., Zangge Mining (Salt lake lithium extraction, cost RMB30,000-40,000/ton)
• Enterprises with spodumene projects with self-owned mines

• Zijin Mining: 20,000-ton 3Q Lithium Salt Lake Project put into operation in Q3 2025; 30,000-ton Hunan project put into operation in October 2025 [3]
• Zangge Mining: Phase II 40,000-ton Lagor Cocha Salt Lake project planned to be put into operation in June 2026

1. Unexpected supply release
   : If key projects such as the “Jianxiawo” mine resume production ahead of schedule
2. Demand falling short of expectations
   : Slowing growth of new energy vehicle sales affects power battery demand
3. Policy risks
   : Policy changes in overseas resource-affecting countries affect import supply
4. Price fluctuation risks
   : Risk of lithium carbonate prices pulling back from high levels

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The breakthrough of lithium carbonate price above RMB130,000/ton is the result of the combined effect of

. At the current price level:

1. Salt lake lithium extraction
   has the most significant cost advantage (RMB30,000-50,000/ton), with a profit margin of RMB90,000/ton
2. Spodumene lithium extraction
   remains the mainstream route (RMB55,000-80,000/ton), with costs affected by imported ore prices
3. Lepidolite lithium extraction
   has seen significant technological progress, but has a broad cost range (RMB60,000-130,000/ton), with high-cost projects under pressure
4. African pegmatite
   , as an emerging route, has high cost elasticity (RMB75,000-110,000/ton)

Looking ahead to the first half of 2026, amid the resonance of supply bottlenecks and explosive energy storage demand, lithium carbonate prices are expected to remain strong, with low-cost capacity continuing to capture excess profits.

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[1] Sina Finance - “Lithium Carbonate: Supply-Demand Mismatch Drives Strong Price Uptick” (https://finance.sina.com.cn/money/future/fmnews/2026-01-02/doc-inhexfks9196628.shtml)

[2] The Paper - “Lithium Prices Soar, But Midstream Giants Hit ‘Pause’ One After Another” (https://m.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_32310987)

[3] Sina Finance - “Put into Operation in Hunan! 30,000-Ton Lithium Carbonate + 5 Million-Ton Mining and Beneficiation Project” (https://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2025-12-26/doc-inhecmri2667931.shtml)

[4] Sina Finance - “To Understand the ‘Lithium’ Script, Try Looking at Zangge Mining” (https://finance.sina.com.cn/money/smjj/smdt/2025-12-09/doc-inhafezz1302361.shtml)

[5] Industry Research Report - “Annual Report on Lithium Carbonate Market” (https://pic-test-gjmetal-1324067834.cos.ap-shanghai.myqcloud.com/newsv2/8cd03708504342819e4d515d86c26f3720231219150740.pdf)