Market Analysis: Larry Kudlow's "Trump Boom" Commentary and Stock Market Performance

This analysis is based on Fox Business host Larry Kudlow’s commentary published on November 11, 2025, titled “Are booming stocks signaling a Trump boom?” [1][2]. The piece presents a supply-side economic perspective, arguing that significant stock market gains reflect positive market response to Trump administration policies including tax cuts, deregulation, and increased energy production.

The quantitative data supports Kudlow’s observation of substantial market gains since the April 2025 bottom [0]:

• Dow Jones Industrial Average
  : +27% since April 2025 [1]
• NASDAQ Composite
  : +53% since April 2025 [1]
• S&P 500
  : +37% since April 2025 [1]

Recent 60-day performance confirms continued momentum across all major indices [0]:

• S&P 500: +6.90% (6406.62 → 6848.65)
• NASDAQ: +9.79% (21269.67 → 23352.21)
• Dow Jones: +7.55% (44922.70 → 48315.77)
• Russell 2000: +8.11% (2273.79 → 2458.30)

However, current sector performance reveals mixed results that complicate the narrative [0]:

• Top performers
  : Communication Services (+0.54%), Healthcare (+0.44%), Industrials (+0.30%)
• Underperformers
  : Technology (-1.38%), Energy (-1.34%), Consumer Cyclical (-1.15%)

The technology sector’s underperformance is particularly notable given NASDAQ’s strong overall gains, suggesting performance concentration in specific large-cap stocks rather than broad tech sector strength.

Kudlow’s analysis references several key Trump administration policy initiatives:

: Trump’s tariffs are projected to increase federal tax revenues by $162.9 billion in 2025 (0.54% of GDP), representing the largest tax increase since 1993 [3]. However, this projection faces legal uncertainty - if certain IEEPA tariffs are enjoined, revenue would decrease to $35.4 billion [3]. The policy faces Supreme Court challenges with rulings potentially months away [6].

: Kudlow claims U.S. energy production is approaching 14 million barrels per day, contributing to lower gas prices with more than half the country reportedly having gas prices with a “$2 handle” [1]. However, some analysts suggest tariffs may actually make U.S. energy more expensive and disrupt manufacturing growth [5].

: The commentary mentions IRS withholding rate changes for 2026 that could return $150-200 billion to consumers through measures like tax-free tips, overtime, and senior benefits [1].

: The recent 43-day government shutdown (referenced as the “Schumer shutdown”) has ended, which Kudlow suggests will boost economic growth and consumer confidence [1][4]. However, the shutdown created significant information gaps, as Kudlow acknowledges limited official government data due to the disruption [1].

The divergence between NASDAQ’s strong performance (+53% since April) and the Technology sector’s recent underperformance (-1.38%) indicates market gains are concentrated in specific large-cap stocks rather than reflecting broad-based economic strength. This concentration creates potential vulnerability if market leadership narrows further.

Kudlow cites alternative data sources like DoorDash indices showing:

• Everyday essentials index: flat over past year [1]
• Cheeseburger index: up less than 4% [1]
• Breakfast basics index: down 14% over 6 months [1]

He also claims real worker wages have recovered by approximately $1,500 in Trump’s first year, after declining by roughly $4,000 during the Biden administration [1]. However, the lack of official government data due to the shutdown makes these claims difficult to verify against comprehensive economic indicators.

While tariffs are projected to generate significant federal revenue ($162.9 billion), the broader economic impact analysis remains incomplete. Tariffs typically increase import costs and could reignite inflationary pressures [5]. The policy also faces legal challenges that could force tariff refunds and eliminate projected revenue [6].

1. Tariff Policy Uncertainty
   : Trump’s tariff policies face legal challenges with Supreme Court rulings potentially months away [6]. Any adverse rulings could force tariff refunds and eliminate projected revenue, creating fiscal uncertainty.

2. Information Gaps
   : The recent 43-day government shutdown has created significant data gaps, making comprehensive economic assessment challenging [1][4]. This limits the ability to validate policy impacts accurately.

3. Inflation Concerns
   : Despite Kudlow’s assertion that inflation is “not much of a problem,” tariff policies typically increase import costs and could reignite inflationary pressures [5].

4. Market Concentration
   : The divergence between index performance and sector breadth suggests market gains may be fragile if leadership narrows further.

1. Q4 2025 GDP Growth
   : Treasury Secretary Bessent projected 3% growth by this time next year [2]. Actual performance will validate or challenge these projections.

2. Consumer Price Index
   : Monitor for any uptick in inflation, particularly in categories affected by tariffs.

3. Manufacturing PMI
   : Track manufacturing activity to assess whether deregulation and tax policies are translating to real production increases.

4. Federal Budget Deficit
   : Watch for the impact of tax cuts and increased spending on the federal deficit, despite tariff revenues.

5. International Trade Data
   : Monitor trade balances and partner country responses to tariff policies.

The stock market has indeed shown substantial gains since April 2025, supporting Kudlow’s observation of strong market performance. However, the relationship between these gains and underlying economic fundamentals requires careful analysis due to several complicating factors:

: Major indices have posted impressive gains (Dow +27%, NASDAQ +53%, S&P 500 +37% since April), but recent sector performance shows mixed results with technology underperforming despite NASDAQ strength [0][1].

: Trump administration policies including tariffs, deregulation, and tax changes are driving the narrative, but their full economic impact remains uncertain due to legal challenges and data gaps [1][3][6].

: The recent government shutdown has created significant information gaps, making comprehensive economic assessment challenging and increasing reliance on alternative data sources [1][4].

: Tariff policy uncertainty, potential inflationary pressures, and market concentration risks warrant careful monitoring as they could impact the sustainability of current market gains [5][6].

Decision-makers should maintain a balanced perspective, recognizing both the positive market momentum and the underlying uncertainties that could affect future performance.