In-Depth Analysis of Muyuan Co., Ltd.'s 2025 'Volume Growth but Price Decline' Phenomenon and Industry Trends

Based on the above data collection and analysis, we now provide you with an

:

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Indicator	2024	2025	Change Rate
Live Pig Slaughter Volume	71.602 million head	77.981 million head	+8.91%
Sales Revenue	RMB 136.225 billion	RMB 132.811 billion	-2.51%
Average Price of Commercial Pigs	Approx. RMB 15.5/kg	From RMB 14.76/kg to RMB 11.41/kg during the year	-22.70%
Revenue per Head	RMB 1,902.53 per head	RMB 1,703.12 per head	-10.48%

In 2025, Muyuan Co., Ltd. sold

of pigs, but its revenue decreased by instead, showing a typical pattern of ‘increased volume but no increased revenue’ [1][2].

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According to data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the national stock of breeding sows remained above the reasonable stock level (39 million head) throughout 2025 [3]:

• End of Q1 2025: 40.39 million head (1.39 million head above the standard)
• End of Q2 2025: 40.43 million head (1.43 million head above the standard)
• End of October 2025: 39.90 million head (first time dropping below 40 million head)

In the first three quarters of 2025, the national live pig slaughter volume reached

, a slight year-on-year increase of 1.85%, ranking the second highest level in the same period of the past five years [3]. As an industry leader, Muyuan Co., Ltd.'s 8.91% growth in slaughter volume is actually a microcosm of the entire industry’s capacity release.

Analysts from Zhuochuang Information pointed out that the 2025 live pig market showed the characteristics of ‘stable in the first half, declining in the second half, and weak peak season’. The industry’s production efficiency ‘involution’ led to a continuous rise in the slaughter weight of live pigs, with the actual pork supply exceeding market expectations [4].

In 2025, the boosting effect of traditional consumption peak seasons weakened significantly, and the proportion of pork consumption declined [4]. Household and catering purchases became more cautious, putting pressure on pork consumption power.

Substitutes such as poultry meat, beef, and mutton diverted pork demand by virtue of their low-price advantage, forming a situation where ‘price declines are easy, but price increases are difficult’ [4].

Time Node	Price of Live Pigs (Outer Three-Way)	Average Price of Muyuan’s Commercial Pigs	Industry Profit and Loss Status
January 2025	16.1-16.4 RMB/kg	14.76 RMB/kg	Profit of approx. RMB 310 per head
July 2025	Approx. 14.8 RMB/kg	Approx. 14.0 RMB/kg	Profit narrowed
October 2025	Below 11 RMB/kg	Approx. 11.5 RMB/kg	Entered loss
December 2025	11.7 RMB/kg	11.41 RMB/kg	Loss of approx. RMB 185 per head

According to data from Zhuochuang Information, the average annual price of lean-type live pigs in 2025 was

, a year-on-year decrease of 17.66% [5]. The industry entered a loss phase from mid-September, with the profit per live pig head falling from a profit of in January to a loss of in December [1].

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• Cycle Duration
  : Profits started in May 2024 and ended in August 2025, lasting 16 months; breeding profits turned negative in September, and the loss cycle restarted [3]
• Price Trend
  : Started declining from the cyclical high in Q3 2024, showing a fluctuating downward trend throughout 2025 [3]
• Capacity Decommissioning
  : Starting from June 2025, under the guidance of the ‘anti-involution’ policy, the stock of breeding sows decreased slightly month by month, shrinking from 40.43 million head at the end of June to 39.90 million head at the end of October [1]

Against the backdrop of falling pig prices, the live pig breeding sector launched an ‘efficiency revolution’ in 2025 [4]:

Enterprise	2025 Cost Performance	2026 Target
Muyuan Co., Ltd.	Total cost dropped from approx. 13 RMB/kg at the beginning of the year to 11.3 RMB/kg in October	Continue to decrease
Wens Co., Ltd.	Comprehensive cost dropped to 12.2-12.4 RMB/kg	Drop to approx. 11.8 RMB/kg

• Improvement of capacity utilization and production efficiency
• PSY (number of weaned piglets per sow per year) index rose to over 28
• Decrease in period expense amortization and improvement in production performance [1]

In 2025, strong policy intervention guided the rational development of the industry [1][3]:

• June 2025
  : The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs required leading breeding enterprises to ‘sow expansion suspension, suspension of secondary fattening sales, and control of live pig slaughter weight’
• July 2025
  : A symposium on the high-quality development of the live pig industry was held, clarifying the ‘anti-involution’ orientation
• September 2025
  : The National Development and Reform Commission jointly held a symposium on capacity regulation with the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, releasing a clear signal of capacity reduction

Muyuan Co., Ltd. actively responded to the policy:

• Decided not to sell commercial pigs to secondary fattening customers
• The average slaughter weight of live pigs dropped from 126.41 kg/head in Q4 to 121.38 kg/head
• At the end of December 2025, the stock of breeding sows was 32.32 million head, a decrease of 2.8 million head compared to the same period in 2024 [1]

At the current price level, the entire industry has basically fallen into a loss state [3]:

• Small and Medium-sized Farmers
  : Capital chains are under pressure, passively decommissioning capacity
• Leading Enterprises
  : Cope with pressure by reducing capital expenditures and adjusting sow stock downward
• Market Clearing
  : The price of piglets dropped to RMB 209 per head (7 kg), far below production costs, and the loss per head of fattening externally purchased piglets exceeded RMB 400 [3]

This will accelerate the increase in industry concentration, and the scale advantages of leading pig enterprises will become more prominent.

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1. Accelerated Capacity Decommissioning
   : The joint force of spontaneous market clearing and policy constraints is expected to bring the stock of breeding sows down to 38.5-39.0 million head in Q2 2026 [4]
2. Relieved Supply Pressure
   : With the decline in breeding sow stock in the second half of 2025, live pig supply will decrease in the second half of 2026 [1]
3. Expected Pig Price Inflection Point
   : It is expected that an inflection point will emerge around May 2026, and the profit cycle will start in July [1]

1. Still High Pressure in the First Half
   : Based on the law of capacity transmission, the pork market supply will still be sufficient in the first half of 2026 [4]
2. Demand May Continue to Be Weak
   : ‘Weak peak season’ may become the norm, and the demand boost from traditional festivals such as the Spring Festival and Mid-Autumn Festival will be limited [4]
3. Price Range Forecast
   : The average live pig price in 2026 may be in the range of
   12-13 RMB/kg
   , showing a pattern of low in the first half and high in the second half [4]

Strategy Direction	Specific Measures
Cost Control	Continue to reduce total cost, target below 11 RMB/kg
Capacity Optimization	Adjust breeding sow stock downward, improve production efficiency
Capital Reserve	Reserve cash to cope with the bottom of the cycle
Efficiency Improvement	Improve PSY, reduce feed-to-meat ratio

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1. Cost Advantage
   : As the industry’s cost leader (total cost approx. 11.3 RMB/kg), Muyuan Co., Ltd. has stronger risk resistance during the industry trough
2. Capacity Flexibility
   : The stock of breeding sows is 32.32 million head, reserving space for future capacity recovery
3. Valuation Level
   : The current P/E ratio is approx. 12.44 times, which is in the historical low range [2]

1. Pig Price Fluctuation Risk
   : Pig prices may continue to be under pressure in the first half of 2026
2. Risk of Capacity Decommissioning Falling Short of Expectations
   : If the decommissioning of breeding sows is slow, the reversal time of the pig cycle may be delayed
3. Cost Increase Risk
   : Feed price fluctuations may affect the effect of cost control
4. Policy Change Risk
   : Industry policy adjustments may affect corporate business strategies

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The phenomenon of Muyuan Co., Ltd.'s 8.91% growth in live pig slaughter volume but 2.51% decline in revenue in 2025 profoundly reflects the

of the current live pig industry:

1. Supply-Demand Imbalance is the Core Contradiction
   : High-level capacity release coupled with weak demand leads to continuous price pressure
2. Industry Enters In-Depth Adjustment Phase
   : The pig cycle has entered a downward channel, and the start of the loss cycle will accelerate capacity decommissioning
3. Cost Competition Becomes the Key
   : In the ‘Era of Meager Profits’, cost control capability determines corporate survival and development
4. Cyclical Inflection Point Expected but Patience Required
   : Under the resonance of policy and market, a recovery market is expected in the second half of 2026

For investors, they should focus on industry leaders with cost advantages at present, lay out at the bottom of the cycle, and wait for investment opportunities brought by the recovery of industry prosperity.

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[1] Time Weekly - ‘Pig Prices Fell by Over 20% Last Year, ‘Pig King’ Muyuan Co., Ltd. Sold 6.38 Million More Pigs but Earned RMB 3.4 Billion Less’ (https://time-weekly.com/post/326638)

[2] Jinling API Data - Muyuan Co., Ltd. Company Profile and Financial Data

[3] Sina Finance - ‘Policies and Market Promote Accelerated Capacity Decommissioning, New Cycle Starting Point for Live Pig Industry Expected in 2026’ (https://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2025-12-26/doc-inheaqmt2877386.shtml)

[4] Eastmoney - ‘In-Depth Reading | Live Pig Market Inventory: Industry Upheaval Behind the ‘Weak Peak Season’’ (https://wap.eastmoney.com/a/202601043607766488.html)

[5] China.org.cn - ‘Breeding Enterprises’ Cost Reduction and Efficiency Improvement Expected to Drive Profit Recovery in 2026’ (http://food.china.com.cn/2026-01/04/content_118260372.shtml)

[6] Public Data from the National Bureau of Statistics and the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs