Assessment of the Feasibility of Chery Automobile's 2026 Sales Target of 3.2 Million Units

Based on public searches and screening of the industry and car companies, I will provide a systematic and comprehensive feasibility assessment focusing on the target itself, competitive landscape, demand and policy, new energy and exports, inventory and channels, risks and execution points, and clarify the boundary between known data and missing data.

• The possibility of achieving 3.2 million units exists, but it is not set in stone.
  Chery has relative advantages in exports, product launch, and channel expansion. Coupled with the industry base and still-rising new energy penetration, a 14% growth rate is not unreachable among peers; however, considering trade-in policy restrictions, ongoing price wars, and competitor new model launches,
  a more realistic range is 3.1 million to 3.25 million units
  (corresponding to an increase of 300k to 450k units, with a growth rate of approximately 10.7% to 16.1%).
• The decisive factors are three points: whether high export growth can continue, whether new energy ramp-up is smooth, and whether domestic channel sinking and promotion rhythm can hedge against price wars.
  If exports and new energy contribute a total of about 300k to 350k units of growth, the target can be achieved.

• Target
  : 3.2 million units in 2026, an increase of 14.03% compared to approximately 2.8 million units in 2025 [1][2].
• Industry Scale
  : The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) stated that China’s automobile production and sales are expected to exceed 34 million units in 2025 [1]. The annual cumulative wholesale of new energy passenger vehicles is about 15.33 million units, a year-on-year increase of 25% [8], providing a macro background for the continued upward penetration of new energy vehicles.
• Benchmark Peer Growth Rates
  :
  • BYD’s cumulative new energy sales in 2025 are about 4.6 million units, with an annual growth rate of +7.7% (lower than 2024’s +41%) [9];
  • Some traditional and new power car companies are cautious about 2026 under the pressure of subsidy withdrawal and price wars, and some have already issued warnings on inventory and channels [11][13];
  • In comparison, Chery’s 14% growth rate is higher than BYD’s but significantly lower than the approximately 25% growth rate of China’s new energy passenger vehicles in 2025 [8].

• Trade-in Policy Restrictions
  : Starting from 2026, trade-in subsidies will set new upper limits, and policy intensity will weaken marginally. Some car companies expect pressure on the demand side [11][13].
• Ongoing Price Wars
  : Media and industry reports show that price wars will continue from 2025 to 2026. Coupled with promotions and inventory destocking, the industry’s judgment on overall growth in 2026 is cautious (media has warnings that “sales may decline”) [7].
• Macro Base
  : If CAAM’s “2025 automobile production and sales exceed 34 million units” is taken as the base, even with a small positive growth in 2026, the total market size remains high, stock competition intensifies, and growth comes from structural opportunities and market share improvement [1].

• BYD
  : With 4.6 million units, it ranks first in global new energy vehicles and is accelerating its catch-up with MG in Europe [10]. Its domestic models are intensively updated, and price ranges are lowered, forming strong pressure on the 150k-300k yuan range. December sales fell by 18% year-on-year, declining for four consecutive months, reflecting the fierce competition in the industry [9].
• Tesla
  : Global deliveries in 2025 were about 1.64 million units and continued to decline. It adopted price reductions and configuration adjustments in China to应对 local competition, continuing to put pressure on the 200k-350k yuan range [1].
• Xiaomi, Geely, Changan, Leapmotor, etc.
  : Reports indicate that Xiaomi, Geely, etc. gained significant consumer recognition in 2025 with new models and innovative configurations, further increasing competition intensity [9].
• Impact on Chery
  : In the “red ocean” of domestic fuel vehicles and mid-end new energy vehicles (100k-250k yuan), Chery needs to use “fast iteration + regional sinking + differentiated configuration” to hedge against the price and brand momentum of leading brands.

• Exports
  : Multiple reports show that Chery’s exports continued to grow rapidly from 2023 to 2025, and it is one of the leaders in China’s passenger vehicle exports (showing its leading position in passenger vehicle exports in chart form) [4]; Chery’s Omoda brand’s electric vehicle sales in Europe increased by more than 1100% in the first 10 months of 2025 [2], showing strong momentum in overseas expansion.
• New Energy Transformation
  : The company continues to promote the new energy transformation of brands such as iCAR, Exeed, and Jetour and overseas electrification layout. Relevant reports and images show its new energy models and technical routes [3][4]. However, in the currently retrievable public information,
  there is a lack of authoritative quantitative data on “the proportion and growth rate of Chery’s new energy vehicles in group sales in 2025”
  , so it is difficult to give a clear contribution weight, and it is subject to internal caliber and subsequent disclosure.

• Inventory and Capacity
  : Industry charts show that China’s passenger vehicle inventory warning index rose periodically in 2025, reflecting that some enterprises face destocking pressure; at the same time, capacity utilization is differentiated, and some enterprises have idle risks [13]. If Chery wants to complete the growth without causing excessive channel inventory, it needs more refined production and sales coordination.
• Channels and Services
  : The network density, after-sales capabilities, and financial solutions in the sinking market will directly affect the volume growth rhythm of mid-end models, which is often the decisive factor in the “last mile”.

• Neutral Scenario (Probability: ~40%-50%)
  : Exports maintain high growth (e.g., 15%-20%), contributing about 200k-250k units of growth; new energy accounts for an increasing proportion of group sales, contributing about 100k-150k units of growth; domestic fuel vehicles remain roughly flat or slightly decline through promotions and channel sinking. Final sales are
  about 3.15 million to 3.25 million units
  , slightly below or close to the target.
• Optimistic Scenario (Probability: ~25%-30%)
  : Overseas orders exceed expectations, new models quickly gain volume in Europe/Latin America/Southeast Asia, exports contribute +300k-350k units; new energy ramp-up is smooth, domestic channel sinking and product portfolio hedge against price wars, domestic fuel vehicles grow steadily. Final sales are
  about 3.2 million to 3.3 million units
  , the target can be achieved or even slightly exceeded.
• Pessimistic Scenario (Probability: ~20%-25%)
  : Subsidy withdrawal and price wars overlap, domestic demand weakens, exports slow down due to trade barriers or geopolitical disturbances; new energy ramp-up is lower than expected. Final sales are
  about 3 million to 3.1 million units
  , and there is a gap in the target.

• Main Risks
  :

1. Subsidy Withdrawal and Policy Uncertainty
   : Trade-in restrictions coupled with weak macro demand may delay volume growth rhythm [11][13].
2. Price Wars Erode Profits
   : Leading brands continue to lower price ranges, forcing Chery to balance between “volume preservation” and “price preservation”.
3. Inventory and Channel Pressure
   : If production and sales rhythm mismatch, high channel inventory will put pressure on capital and price systems.
4. Trade Barriers
   : Exports are a strength, but tariffs and compliance requirements in Europe and other places may increase costs and slow down the rhythm.

• Execution Points
  :

1. Focus on “Exports + New Energy” Dual Engines
   : Prioritize ensuring overseas order delivery and local compliance; accelerate electrification upgrades and new model launch rhythm.
2. Product Portfolio and Regional Sinking
   : Do “fast iteration + strong cost-effectiveness” in the sub-150k yuan and overseas markets; improve service and financial penetration in third-tier and below cities.
3. Refined Inventory and Channel Management
   : Avoid excessive inventory pressure for volume growth, establish dynamic production and sales and promotion rhythm.
4. Cost and Supply Stability
   : Lock in more stable supply agreements and hedging tools for raw materials, chips, and logistics.

• Chery’s 3.2 million unit target is “difficult but achievable” in the current industry and competitive environment. The key lies in the sustainability of high export growth, the speed of new energy transformation ramp-up, and the ability to hedge against price wars and policy withdrawal domestically.
  Without further internal data disclosure, it is more robust to give a range of 3.1 million to 3.25 million units and a neutral to slightly optimistic probability distribution.

[1] Jinling API Data (Comprehensive Industry and Enterprise Caliber)
[2] Chinese Electric Vehicles Conquer Europe: 12.8% Market Share in November Hits New High (Yahoo Finance) [https://hk.finance.yahoo.com/news/中國電動車在歐洲攻城掠-11月市佔12-8-創新高-133135930.html]
[3] Chery New Energy and Multi-Brand Model Display (Media Reports and Images) [https://www.zhihu.com/tardis/bd/art/1890423378487272807]
[4] Chery Export and International Market Strategy (Charts and Media Reports) [https://images.wsj.net/im-942982?width=639&height=852]
[5] Chery Automobile IPO and Revenue Growth (Zhihu Q&A) [https://www.zhihu.com/question/13622478307]
[6] CAAM: Last Year’s Automobile Production and Sales Expected to Exceed 34 Million Units to Hit New High (Yahoo Finance) [https://hk.finance.yahoo.com/news/中汽協-去年汽車產銷有望窪破3-400萬輛創新高-035200052.html]
[7] New-Vehicles Sales Likely to Slide in 2026 (Automotive News) [https://europe.autonews.com/manufacturing/an-2025-stories-of-the-year-1222/]
[8] Passenger Car Association Expects China’s New Energy Passenger Vehicle Market Growth Rate to Be Around 25% in 2025 (Yahoo Finance) [https://hk.finance.yahoo.com/news/乘聯分會料2025年中國新能源乘用車市場銷量增速25左右-101606946.html]
[9] BYD’s Sales Growth Slowed in 2025, but It Still Tops Tesla (WSJ) [https://cn.wsj.com/articles/byds-sales-growth-slowed-in-2025-but-still-set-to-top-tesla-7b786acc]
[10] BYD Closes Gap on MG as Chinese Automaker Sales in Europe More Than Double (Automotive News) [https://www.autonews.com/manufacturing/automakers/ane-europe-chinese-november-2025-11-months-1218/]
[11] Some Automakers Prepare for Tough 2026 as China Sets New Limits on Trade-in Subsidies (Automotive News) [https://www.autonews.com/china/an-china-2026-trade-in-subsidies-0104/]
[12] 2026 Lookahead: CES, Tariff and Trade Policy, and Vehicle-Sales Forecast (Automotive News) [https://www.autonews.com/opinion/columns/an-intercol-1221/]
[13] Industry Charts on China’s Passenger Vehicle Inventory and Capacity Utilization, Price Wars and Policy Impact (iautodaily) [https://www.iautodaily.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/1-21-1024x576.jpg]