Analysis of the Reasons for Divergence Between Pony Testing's Stock Price and Fundamentals and Investment Risk Assessment of the Third-Party Testing Industry

Based on the information I have collected, I will provide you with a comprehensive report on the analysis of the reasons for the divergence between Pony Testing’s stock price and fundamentals, as well as the investment risk assessment of the third-party testing industry.

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According to public information, Pony Testing (300887) recently recorded

[1], but the company also . This phenomenon forms an obvious divergence between stock price and fundamentals:

[3]:

• 2023 and 2024 saw consecutive double declines in revenue and net profit
• 2024 net profit attributable to parent company plummeted by
  430.58%
• 2025 H1 revenue fell by 22.42%, net profit by 4.83%
• Except for net cash flow from operating activities, major financial data are negative

[1]:

• On January 5, A-share military stocks rose strongly, with Pony Testing hitting a 20CM daily limit
• The company issued an abnormal fluctuation announcement stating that its operating conditions have not undergone major changes

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[1]
The company relies on its advantages to provide support for innovative fields such as brain-computer interface flexible electrodes and genetic engineering materials, using advanced analytical technologies like mass spectrometry for chemical characterization to accurately identify material components and extractable substance risks. This concept has gained market attention under the current AI boom.

[1]
On December 16, 2025, the company disclosed that some environmental and reliability test standards for spacecraft and supporting equipment have passed qualification certification, and the company is . Against the background of China’s record-high number of space launches in 2025, this concept is highly attractive.

[1]
On January 5, A-share military stocks were strong overall, with multiple stocks like Aerospace Changfeng, Haige Communication, and Gaode Infrared hitting daily limits. As an enterprise with military testing qualifications, Pony Testing was driven by sector funds.

From the chart trend [2], Pony Testing’s stock price experienced a continuous decline from its previous high, and after the loss forecast was announced,

, so there was a technical need for an oversold rebound. The two consecutive daily limits may be a superimposed effect of technical rebound and concept speculation.

Although the company announced risk warnings and stated that “there are no major matters that should be disclosed but not disclosed”, market funds chose to gamble on theme concepts under the condition that

. This trading logic of “bad news is good news when it’s fully priced in” is common in the A-share market.

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According to industry research data [4]:

• 2025 global Testing, Inspection and Certification (TIC) market size
  261.32 billion USD
• Expected to reach
  460 billion USD
  by 2035, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of
  5.84%
• Drivers
  : Regulatory compliance (65%), consumer safety demand (70%), industrial automation (55%)
• Regional distribution
  : North America 35%, Europe 30%, Asia-Pacific 25%, Middle East & Africa 10%

[3]

• 2024 inspection and testing industry revenue
  487.597 billion yuan
  , year-on-year growth of only 4.41% (vs 9.2% in 2023)
• As of the end of 2024, the number of inspection and testing institutions was
  53,057
  , a year-on-year decrease of 1.44%, the first decline in nearly 20 years
• The industry is transitioning from incremental competition to stock competition

[5]

• Construction engineering testing has the largest scale
• Environmental monitoring and environmental protection testing follow
• Mechanical equipment testing, food testing, cosmetics testing, etc., are important segments

[4]

• Certification fraud risk (25%)
• Talent shortage (40%)
• High cost constraints (30%)

Company	Market Position	Performance	Core Advantages
CTI Testing (300012)	Industry leader	Steady growth in revenue and net profit over the past 5 years	Strong brand, perfect business layout, mature management system
Pony Testing (300887)	Medium-sized institution	Consecutive double declines in 2023-2024, 2024 net profit plummeted by 430%	Multi-field layout, with military/aerospace qualifications
China National Inspection Group	Central enterprise background	Relatively stable	Government resource advantages, leading in construction engineering testing

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• Two consecutive years of performance decline, 2024 net profit plummeted by over 400%
• Still in loss in 2025 H1
• Possible main reasons for loss include
  : Goodwill impairment, provision for accounts receivable bad debts, weak demand for traditional businesses, loss during the investment period of new businesses

[3]

• Shanghai subsidiary
  : In August 2024, it was administratively punished with suspension of business for rectification + a fine of 175,000 yuan
• Jiangsu subsidiary
  : In December 2025, the proficiency test result for cadmium determination in cosmetics was “unqualified”
• The core asset of a testing institution is
  credibility
  ; continuous violations may lead to customer loss

• In 2025 H1, only operating cash flow was positive; investment and financing cash flows were negative
• If losses continue, liquidity risk may arise

• Domestic inspection and testing industry growth rate dropped from 9.2% to 4.41%
• The number of institutions decreased for the first time, indicating the industry has entered stock competition

• Overcapacity leads to downward price of testing services
• Survival space for small and medium-sized institutions is squeezed

• More strict qualification review for testing institutions
• Rising compliance costs

• Current stock price rise is mainly driven by
  theme concepts
  , lacking performance support
• Traditional PE valuation is invalid under the 2025 loss expectation
• If using
  Price-to-Sales Ratio (PS)
  valuation, need to be alert to the risk of continuous revenue decline
• Insufficient safety margin
  , large downside risk

• Concepts like brain-computer interface and commercial aerospace are
  far from contributing to performance
• After a large short-term increase, there is
  correction pressure
• Once market sentiment weakens, the stock price may fall rapidly

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• Extremely high short-term speculation risk
  : Divergence increases after two consecutive daily limits, high risk of chasing highs
• Pay attention to theme sustainability
  : It is uncertain whether concepts like brain-computer interface and commercial aerospace can continue to ferment
• Strict stop-loss
  : After failed theme speculation, the decline may be deep

• Not recommended to intervene
  : Deteriorating fundamentals, no safety margin
• Wait for performance improvement signals
  : Pay attention to the possibility of turning around losses in the 2025 annual report
• Compare with industry leaders
  : CTI Testing has better fundamentals and more allocation value

• ⚠️
  Delisting risk
  : If it loses money for two consecutive years, it may be designated as *ST
• ⚠️
  Goodwill impairment risk
  : Previous mergers and acquisitions may form large goodwill
• ⚠️
  Customer loss risk
  : Damaged credibility may affect business expansion
• ⚠️
  Liquidity risk
  : If losses continue, the capital chain may be under pressure

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Pony Testing’s two consecutive daily limits and full-year loss expectation divergence are essentially

. The driving factors include popular concepts like brain-computer interface and commercial aerospace, as well as military sector linkage, but these concepts are far from contributing to performance and lack fundamental support.

The global third-party testing industry still maintains stable growth, but China’s market growth has slowed significantly, entering the stage of stock competition from incremental competition. Under intensified industry competition, leading enterprises like CTI Testing are more competitive with brand and management advantages, while small and medium-sized institutions face greater pressure.

. The superposition of fundamental risks, industry risks, valuation risks, and theme speculation risks leads to extremely high investment risks. If the company can turn around losses and rebuild credibility in the future, there may be a turnaround opportunity, but the risk-return ratio is not favorable at the current time.

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[1] Stock Review Network - “Market Sorting_Market Trends_Reasons for Daily Limits” (January 5, 2025)
https://www.fupanwang.com/fupanla/

[2] Sina Finance - “Sina A-Share Hotspot Hourly Report丨15:00 on January 5, 2026”
https://cj.sina.cn/articles/view/7857201856/1d45362c001901gwuw

[3] 36氪 - “2026, The First Stock of Beauty Testing is Coming?” (December 2025)
https://m.36kr.com/p/3616632543970311

[4] Global Growth Insights - “TIC Market Size and 2035 CAGR 5.9% Outlook”
https://www.globalgrowthinsights.com/zh/market-reports/testing-inspection-and-certification-tic-market-101327

[5] Industry Research Data - Market Size Distribution of Segments in China’s Inspection and Testing Industry
(Chart data from public research reports)