Can Wegovy Oral Replicate Injectable's Commercial Success? Novo Nordisk Weight Loss Drug Competitive Analysis

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Novo Nordisk officially launched the oral version of Wegovy (semaglutide 25mg tablets) in the United States on January 5, 2026, which is the world’s first oral GLP-1 receptor agonist approved for weight loss [1]. The product has the following key features:

• First-mover Advantage:
  Becomes the first oral GLP-1 weight loss drug to hit the market, leading Eli Lilly’s orforglipron by approximately 1-2 years
• Significant Efficacy:
  Clinical trials show an average weight loss of 16.6%, comparable to the injectable version of Wegovy [2]
• Affordable Pricing:
  Monthly cost ranges from $149 to $299, more accessible than the injectable version
• Patient Preference:
  Addresses the fear of injections in approximately two-thirds of patients [3]

• The global GLP-1 market is expected to grow from $62.86 billion in 2025 to $315.33 billion in 2035 (CAGR of 17.5%) [4]
• By 2030, daily oral drugs are expected to account for 24% of the weight loss drug market ($22 billion) [5]
• Only 2% of obese patients in the U.S. receive drug treatment, leaving huge room for market penetration [6]

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Novo Nordisk (NVO) Stock Price Trend and Trading Volume from October to December 2025

Item	Details
Approval Date	December 22, 2025 (FDA-approved)
Launch Date	January 5, 2026 (U.S.)
Dosage Specifications	1.5mg, 4mg, 9mg, 25mg
Administration Method	Once daily oral administration
Monthly Cost	$149-$299 (self-paying patients)
Availability	Available at over 70,000 U.S. pharmacies and multiple telemedicine platforms [7]

According to phase 3 clinical trial data from OASIS4:

Efficacy Indicator	Result	Comparison
Average Weight Loss	16.6%	Injectable Wegovy: ~15%
Actual Weight Loss	13.6%	Placebo group: 2.4%
Proportion of Patients with ≥20% Weight Loss	33.3%	Injectable Wegovy: 30%+
Cardiovascular Risk Improvement	Significant	Comparable to injectable version [8]

Oral Wegovy’s efficacy is comparable to the injectable version, with excellent performance in weight loss magnitude and improvement of cardiovascular metabolic indicators.

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Left chart shows market capitalization comparison between Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly; right chart shows GLP-1 market growth forecast (2025-2035)

• Obesity Prevalence:
  40% of U.S. adults suffer from obesity [9]
• Treatment Penetration:
  Currently only 2% of patients receive drug treatment [10]
• Indication Expansion:
  New indications such as cardiovascular diseases, sleep apnea, NASH
• Oral Advantage:
  Studies show up to two-thirds of adults have a fear of injections [11]

The pricing strategy of oral Wegovy reflects Novo Nordisk’s market expansion intent:

Comparison Dimension	Oral Wegovy	Injectable Wegovy
Monthly Cost (Self-paying)	$149-$299	$1,000-$1,350
Administration Frequency	Once daily	Once weekly
Insurance Coverage	To be expanded	Gradually expanding
Patient Out-of-Pocket Cost	Significantly reduced	Still high

The lower price threshold will help Novo Nordisk reach a broader patient population, especially when insurance coverage is not yet fully in place.

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Goldman Sachs’ forecast of daily oral GLP-1 market share in 2030

Product	Status	Efficacy	Expected Launch
Orforglipron	Phase 3 completed	72-week weight loss of 12.4%	2026-2027
Zepbound (Injectable)	Launched	22.5% weight loss	Already launched

• Eli Lilly’s market cap is $935.57 billion, approximately 4x that of Novo [0]
• Goldman Sachs predicts: By 2030, Lilly’s oral drug will account for 60% of the market share ($13.6 billion), Novo for 21% ($4 billion) [12]
• Orforglipron’s once-daily administration advantage directly competes with oral Wegovy

• Amgen (AMGN):
  MariTide (Phase 2)
• Pfizer (PFE):
  Danuglipron (in development)
• Viking Therapeutics:
  VK2735 (early stage)

Competitive Dimension	Novo Nordisk	Eli Lilly
First-mover Advantage	✓ First oral GLP-1 launched	✗ 1-2 years behind
Efficacy	16.6% weight loss	Orforglipron: 12.4%
Product Line Breadth	Ozempic, Wegovy, Rybelsus	Mounjaro, Zepbound
Production Capacity	Expanding but still in shortage	Continuously expanding
Market Cap	$244.97 billion	$935.57 billion
R&D Pipeline	Strong	Strong

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According to latest data [0]:

Indicator	Value	Explanation
Current Stock Price	$55.11	Closing on January 5, 2026
Daily Increase	+5.19%	Driven by oral Wegovy launch
52-week Range	$43.08 - $93.80	41% drop from high
Market Cap	$244.97 billion	~26% of Lilly’s
P/E Ratio	15.02x	Significantly lower than Lilly’s 51x

• Stock price has sharply回调 from 2025 high, reflecting market concerns about intensified competition
• Low P/E may provide valuation buffer
• Oral Wegovy launch has short-term positive impact on stock price (+5.19%)

Financial Indicator	Value	Evaluation
Net Profit Margin	35.61%	Excellent
Operating Profit Margin	45.78%	Excellent
ROE	77.86%	Excellent
Current Ratio	0.78	Low but manageable
Analyst Rating	64% Buy	Overall positive [0]

Novo Nordisk has strong profitability and capital return efficiency, providing a solid foundation for continuous R&D investment and production capacity expansion.

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1. First-mover advantage: First oral GLP-1 weight loss drug launched, building brand awareness and prescription habits
2. Clinical validation: Efficacy comparable to injectable version, with complete safety data
3. Pricing advantage: Starting price of $149 significantly lower than injectable version, expanding accessibility
4. Product line synergy: Forms a complete GLP-1 product matrix with Ozempic, Wegovy, Rybelsus
5. Manufacturing capability: Experience in large-scale production of semaglutide

1. Daily administration: Compliance may be affected compared to weekly injections
2. Production capacity constraints: Injectable Wegovy already faces supply shortages; oral version may exacerbate this
3. Market cap gap: Compared to Eli Lilly, capital scale is smaller, resource allocation may be limited
4. Dependence on single product: Semaglutide series accounts for a high proportion of total revenue

1. Market penetration: Only 2% of obese patients receive drug treatment, huge growth space
2. Oral market: Expected to reach $22 billion by 2030
3. Indication expansion: Cardiovascular diseases, NASH, sleep apnea
4. Emerging markets: Expansion potential in China, Europe, etc.
5. Combination therapy: Combination with drugs of other mechanisms

1. Lilly competition: Orforglipron may launch in 2026-2027 with comparable efficacy
2. Biosimilars: Semaglutide will face generic competition after patent expiration
3. Regulatory risks: Continuous safety monitoring, side effects may affect the market
4. Payer pressure: Insurance companies restrict GLP-1 coverage
5. Price pressure: Pricing pressure will continue as competition intensifies

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• Unique positioning of oral Wegovy with almost no direct competition in next 1-2 years
• Gradual expansion of production capacity, alleviation of supply shortages
• Approval of new indications (cardiovascular, kidney diseases) expanding patient base

• Eli Lilly’s orforglipron may launch in late 2026 or early 2027
• Injectable Zepbound has better efficacy (22.5% vs 16.6%), may attract patients seeking maximum efficacy

• By 2030, oral GLP-1 market will reach $22 billion [13]
• Novo is expected to account for 21% ($4 billion), Lilly for 60% ($13.6 billion) [14]
• Injectables will still dominate the market (76% share, $73 billion)

1. Production capacity expansion: Ensure sufficient supply of injectable and oral versions
2. Combination therapy: Develop triple-target agonists (e.g., competitors to retatrutide)
3. New indications: Cardiovascular diseases, NASH, sleep apnea
4. Pricing strategy: Balance accessibility and profitability
5. Market expansion: Deeply penetrate U.S. market, expand to Europe and Asia

1. Reasonable valuation: P/E of 15x significantly lower than industry average and Lilly’s 51x
2. First-mover advantage: Oral Wegovy has almost no direct competition in next 1-2 years
3. Strong financials: 35%+ net profit margin and 77%+ ROE show excellent profitability
4. Growth space: Obesity treatment market penetration is only 2%, huge space

• Eli Lilly’s market cap is 4x that of Novo, with more abundant R&D and commercialization resources
• After Orforglipron launches, Novo’s oral market share may be compressed
• Injectable Zepbound has better efficacy, may attract patients pursuing maximum efficacy

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Oral Wegovy

, but faces a more intense competitive environment.

• ✓ No direct oral competitors in next 1-2 years
• ✓ Starting price of $149 significantly lowers entry barrier
• ✓ Addresses patients’ fear of injections (two-thirds of population)
• ✓ Forms product combination with injectable version, covering patients with different preferences

• ✗ Eli Lilly’s orforglipron has comparable efficacy (12.4% vs 16.6%), may launch in 2026-2027
• ✗ Goldman Sachs predicts Novo’s oral market share is only 21%, far lower than Lilly’s 60%
• ✗ Daily administration compliance may be lower than weekly injections

Oral Wegovy will become an important growth engine for Novo Nordisk, but . By 2030, the oral version is expected to contribute approximately $4 billion in revenue, while the injectable version will continue to dominate the market. Novo Nordisk needs to maintain its first-mover advantage while accelerating the development of next-generation products (e.g., triple-target agonists) to应对全方位竞争 from Eli Lilly.

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[0] Gilin API Data - Novo Nordisk (NVO) Stock Quote, Company Profile, Financial Indicators

[1] HCP Live - “FDA Approves Semaglutide (Wegovy) Pill As First Oral GLP-1 for Weight Loss” (https://www.hcplive.com/view/fda-approves-semaglutide-wegovy-pill-as-first-oral-glp-1-for-weight-loss)

[2] Science Daily - “Wegovy in a pill? Massive weight loss results revealed” (https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2025/11/251106003913.htm)

[3] Drug Discovery Trends - “Novo Nordisk launches first GLP-1 pill for obesity, but Lilly may dominate the oral market eventually” (https://www.drugdiscoverytrends.com/novo-nordisk-launches-first-glp-1-pill-for-obesity-but-lilly-may-dominate-the-oral-market-eventually/)

[4] Towards Healthcare - “GLP-1 Receptor Agonist Market to Grow at 17.5% CAGR till 2035” (https://www.towardshealthcare.com/insights/glp-1-receptor-agonist-market-sizing)

[5] CNBC - “What’s next for the weight loss drug market: pills, rivals, insurance” (https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/02/whats-next-for-the-weight-loss-drug-market-pills-rivals-insurance.html)

[6] Fast Company - “Wegovy pill: Where to find Novo Nordisk’s new GLP-1 for weight loss—and how much it costs” (https://www.fastcompany.com/91469193/wegovy-pill-cost-pricing-retailers-for-new-novo-nordisk-weight-loss-glp1)

[7] UPI - “Novo Nordisk’s GLP-1 weight-loss pill now available in U.S. pharmacies” (https://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2026/01/05/Novo-Nordisk-Wegovy-pill/1171767632750/)

[8] PR Newswire - “Novo Nordisk presents four new analyses on oral semaglutide 25 mg” (https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/novo-nordisk-presents-four-new-analyses-on-oral-semaglutide-25-mg-wegovy-in-a-pill-at-obesityweek-2025-including-demonstrated-reductions-in-cardiovascular-risk-factors-3025605329.html)

[9] Drug Discovery Trends - Same as [3]

[10] Science Daily - Same as [2]

[11] Drug Discovery Trends - Same as [3]

[12] Eli Lilly Press Release - “Lilly’s oral GLP-1, orforglipron, demonstrated meaningful weight loss” (https://lilly.gcs-web.com/news-releases/news-release-details/lillys-oral-glp-1-orforglipron-demonstrated-meaningful-weight)

[13] CNBC - Same as [5]

[14] CNBC - Same as [5]