Impact Analysis of Tianci Materials' Longshan North Base Shutdown for Maintenance on the Electrolyte Industry

Based on comprehensive research on Tianci Materials (002709.SZ) shutdown and maintenance event and the lithium hexafluorophosphate industry, I systematically analyze the impact of this shutdown and maintenance on the supply-demand pattern and price trend of the electrolyte industry for you.

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Tianci Materials announced on January 5, 2026, that its 150,000-ton/year liquid lithium hexafluorophosphate production line at Longshan North Base plans to shut down for maintenance starting March 1, 2026, with an expected duration of 20-30 days [1]. The company stated that it has completed relevant approval procedures and material preparations, and the impact on its operations is expected to be minimal [1].

According to the latest data, Tianci Materials has a leading market position in the lithium hexafluorophosphate sector:

• Lithium Hexafluorophosphate Capacity
  : Approximately 110,000 tons, ranking first globally with a market share of about 37% [2][5]
• Electrolyte Capacity
  : Approximately 850,000 tons; 2025 electrolyte sales are expected to reach 720,000 tons, which is nearly full capacity [5]
• Global Position
  : In 2024, global electrolyte shipments reached 503,000 tons, accounting for 35.7% of the global market share, ranking first globally for nine consecutive years [5]

Based on the 150,000-ton/year capacity:

• 20-day shutdown
  : Reduces production by approximately 8,200 tons (annualized 8,200 tons)
• 30-day shutdown
  : Reduces production by approximately 12,300 tons (annualized 12,300 tons)

: Although the 150,000-ton production line is large-scale, Tianci Materials’ total lithium hexafluorophosphate capacity is approximately 110,000 tons (with technical transformation potential). The actual impact on production accounts for a small proportion of the company’s total capacity, and the company has made preparations in advance, so the impact on operations is controllable [1].

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In the second half of 2025, the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate experienced a surge:

• Price Increase
  : From 49,500 yuan/ton in July 2025 to 180,000-190,000 yuan/ton in December, an increase of over 250% [2]
• Current Price
  : Maintains a high level of approximately 170,000 yuan/ton [3]
• Drivers of Price Increase
  :
  • Supply Side: Previous industry downturn led to the exit of backward capacity of some small and medium-sized enterprises
  • Demand Side: Unexpected explosion of energy storage demand + growth in power battery installation volume
  • Raw Material Cost: Upward shift in the price center of lithium carbonate [2][3]

• Inventory Level
  : Industry inventory is only about 1,500 tons, accounting for approximately 5% of normal demand [2]
• Inventory Impact
  : Weak supply chain buffer; any supply disturbance will have an amplified effect on prices

The lithium hexafluorophosphate industry presents a typical pattern of “oligopoly + tight supply-demand balance”:

Company	Lithium Hexafluorophosphate Capacity	Market Position
Tianci Materials	110,000 tons	Global No.1, market share 37% [2][5]
DFMC	65,000 tons	Second [2]
Tianji Co., Ltd.	37,000 tons	Top 3 in the industry [2]
Capchem	25,000 tons	Fourth [2]
Yongtai Technology	18,000 tons	- [2]

: Tianci Materials, DFMC, and Capchem control more than 70% of the capacity [2]

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:

1. Low Inventory + High Prosperity
   : Against the background of inventory accounting for only 5% of normal demand, phased maintenance of leading enterprises will exacerbate supply tension [2]
2. Pressure on Long-Term Contract Customers
   : For customers with existing long-term contracts and supply guarantee agreements, short-term supply pressure increases
3. Overall Impact Controllable
   : The company has made material preparations and approval procedures in advance, so the impact on overall operations is limited [1]

According to industry analysts’ judgments:

• Trend in H1 2026
  : The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate will maintain a high-level operation, but there may be periodic fluctuations during the period [3]
• Nature of Maintenance Impact
  : This maintenance constitutes a
  marginal positive
  for prices, but it is more of a “reinforcement” rather than a “trigger” for prices [3]
  • Reason 1: Limited new capacity in the industry overall
  • Reason 2: Leading enterprises have sufficient order reserves
  • Reason3: Relatively short maintenance period (20-30 days)

Historical experience shows that electrolytes have strong cost pass-through capabilities:

• Transmission Path
  : Lithium hexafluorophosphate price increase → electrolyte cost rise → electrolyte price同步上涨
• Gross Margin Performance
  : In the early stage of raw material price increase, electrolyte gross margin is temporarily under pressure, but it rebounds quickly as product prices rise [2]
• Bargaining Power
  : The electrolyte segment has strong bargaining power in the current phase [2]

: It is expected that the transmission of maintenance to electrolyte product prices will be smooth.

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After the price volatility in 2021-2022, the industry has formed a new development consensus:

• Orderly Capacity Expansion
  : Leading enterprises generally emphasize orderly capacity expansion and reasonable profits, and the pace of capacity deployment is more prudent [5]
• Rational Pricing
  : Avoid disorderly competition and vicious price wars
• Technological Upgrade
  : Tianci Materials’ existing lithium hexafluorophosphate production lines have potential for capacity improvement through technical transformation [5]

:

• Limited scale of new capacity release [3]
• The pace of technical transformation capacity deployment of leading enterprises will be comprehensively considered based on market demand changes [5]

:

• Energy Storage Sector
  : Demand remains sustainable; energy storage battery demand growth is expected to exceed 50% in 2026 [3]
• Power Sector
  : Adjustments to the new energy vehicle purchase tax halving policy may have a slight inhibitory effect on demand [3]
• Overall Judgment
  : The growth rate of power battery shipments may remain around 25%, which is still the core pillar of lithium demand

:

• Considering the demand side (power + energy storage) and supply side (capacity release pace, low inventory), the tight supply-demand balance of lithium hexafluorophosphate is expected to continue in H1 2026 [2][3]

:

• 2025 Performance Forecast: Net profit attributable to parent company is 1.1-1.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 127.31%-230.63% [5]
• Drivers: Significant year-on-year growth in lithium-ion battery material sales + ramp-up of core raw material capacity + effective cost control [5]

:

• Integrated Layout
  : Complete industrial chain from lithium hexafluorophosphate, new electrolytes, additives to electrolytes
• Cost Advantage
  : Liquid lithium hexafluorophosphate process technology, unit cost significantly lower than the industry average
• Customer Binding
  : Established long-term supply relationships with leading battery manufacturers such as CATL, Gotion High-Tech, and CALB [5]

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• Lithium Carbonate Price
  : The upward shift in the price center supports the cost of lithium hexafluorophosphate [3]
• Cost Transmission
  : Fluctuations in upstream raw material prices will be transmitted step by step to the electrolyte and battery manufacturing ends through lithium hexafluorophosphate
• Risk Warning
  : If the price of lithium carbonate fluctuates sharply, it will affect the profitability of lithium hexafluorophosphate and electrolyte enterprises

• Cost Pressure Transmission
  : Cost pressure on the battery material side is gradually transmitted to the battery manufacturing side, and there is a certain upward expectation for battery prices [3]
• Industry Response
  : Relieve the impact of raw material price fluctuations through long-term contracts and hedging strategies [3]
• Overall Trend
  : Although upstream battery metal prices rose in 2025, the cost pressure was not fully transmitted to battery pack prices through strategies such as increasing the proportion of LFP batteries and signing long-term supply agreements [3]

Risk Category	Specific Performance	Potential Impact
Demand Risk	Adjustment of new energy vehicle policies, energy storage demand below expectations	Periodic price correction
Supply Risk	Faster-than-expected new capacity release, accelerated technical transformation of competitors	Reversal of supply-demand relationship
Technical Risk	Faster-than-expected industrialization of all-solid-state batteries	Impact on lithium hexafluorophosphate demand
Raw Material Risk	Sharp fluctuations in prices of lithium carbonate, hydrofluoric acid, phosphorus pentachloride	Cost pressure or profit margin compression

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:

• Maintenance strengthens the tight balance pattern, supports lithium hexafluorophosphate and electrolyte prices, and the overall impact is controllable

:

• Limited new capacity, demand driven by power and energy storage → tight balance continues, prices remain high with fluctuations

:

• Evolving towards orderly capacity expansion and reasonable profits; market concentration and leading enterprises’ advantages are consolidated

:

• Integrated layout, cost advantage, and customer binding help consolidate its leading position

1. Supply-Demand Pattern
   : Short-term marginal tightening, mid-term tight balance continues
2. Price Trend
   : High-level operation + periodic fluctuations; maintenance event reinforces rather than triggers price increases
3. Industry Prosperity
   : The industry prosperity is expected to remain high in H1 2026
4. Enterprise Differentiation
   : Leading enterprises further consolidate their market positions with technical and cost advantages

It is recommended to continue monitoring the following indicators to evaluate industry changes:

• Lithium hexafluorophosphate inventory level (currently about 1,500 tons) [2]
• Industry operating rate and capacity utilization
• Energy storage installation volume and power battery production growth rate
• New capacity release pace of leading enterprises
• Raw material price trends (lithium carbonate, etc.)

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[1] Eastmoney.com - Tianci Materials: Liquid Lithium Hexafluorophosphate Production Line to Shut Down for Maintenance Starting March 1 (January 5, 2026)

[2] Caifuhao - Collation and Analysis of Lithium Hexafluorophosphate and Solid-State Battery Sectors (December 27, 2025)

[3] Jiemian News - A Preview of the 2026 Lithium Battery Industry Chain Price Map (2025)

[4] Securities Times Online - Significant Growth in Lithium-Ion Battery Material Sales, Tianci Materials’ 2025 Net Profit Expected to Increase (December 31, 2025)

[5] Soochow/Institutional Research Report - 2025 Tianci Materials Company Research Report: Lithium Hexafluorophosphate Cycle Reversal (December 25, 2025)

[6] Jinling API Data - Tianci Materials (002709.SZ) Company Information and Market Data