Moderna (MRNA) Investment Value Analysis Report

Based on current data and market environment,

, which reasonably reflects Moderna’s short-term challenges of declining COVID-19 vaccine demand and profitability issues, but , especially in the field of personalized cancer vaccines.

: Stock price is $31.61, market capitalization is $12.35 billion, and it is in the middle to upper range of the 52-week interval [0].

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According to the latest financial data [0], Moderna faces significant profit pressure:

Financial Indicator	Value	Analysis
EPS (TTM)	-$8.06	Continuous loss, negative earnings per share
Net Profit Margin	-140.30%	Severe loss: $1.40 loss per $1 revenue
Operating Margin	-155.92%	Operating costs far exceed revenue
ROE	-31.40%	Negative shareholder return
Free Cash Flow	~-$4.055 billion	Fast cash burn rate [0]

[0]:

• Revenue: $1.02 billion,
  exceeded expectations by 10.3%
• EPS: -$0.51,
  exceeded expectations by 72.7%
• However, revenue
  declined 45% YoY
  , mainly due to decreased COVID vaccine demand

:

• Strong Cash Reserves
  : Expected year-end cash balance of
  $7.1-7.6 billion
  [0]
• Current Ratio
  : 3.93, strong short-term debt repayment ability
• Quick Ratio
  :3.73, sufficient liquidity

:

• Annual cash burn exceeds $3 billion
  [0]
• Management guidance indicates
  operating losses will continue until 2026
• Negative free cash flow, relying on external financing

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##3. Core Business: COVID-19 Vaccine Decline

###3.1 Revenue Decline Trend

2025 COVID-19 vaccine revenue is expected to be

, down more than from the 2022 peak (about $18 billion) [0][0].

:

• U.S. COVID vaccine uptake rate decreased
  20-40% YoY
• Global vaccine demand continues to decline
• Market shifts from pandemic emergency to normalized management

###3.2 Jefferies’ Pessimistic Forecast

Jefferies analysts predict [0]:

• 2030 COVID vaccine revenue may drop to $1 billion/year
• Cash break-even predicted in
  2030
  , 2 years later than management’s 2028 guidance
• Believes current
  annual cash burn of $3+B is unsustainable

: Jefferies’ $30 target price is based on pessimistic expectations of rapid decline in COVID vaccine business.

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##4. Non-COVID Product Pipeline: Undervalued Growth Engine

###4.1 Near-term Commercial Products (2025-2027)

####4.1.1 Seasonal Influenza Vaccine

• Status
  : Submitted regulatory applications to the U.S., Europe, Australia, Canada [0][0]
• Expected Launch
  :2027
• Market Potential
  : Global influenza vaccine market ~$8-10 billion
• Competitive Advantage
  : mRNA platform can quickly match virus strains with short production cycles
• Cooperation
  : Received up to
  $54.3 million
  from CEPI to support Phase3 trials of H5 avian influenza vaccine [0]

####4.1.2 RSV Vaccine (mRESVIA)

• Status
  : Approved, indication expanded
• Challenges
  : Shrinking market, fierce competition (GSK/Pfizer hold major shares); growth depends on booster guidance updates; initial market acceptance below expectations

####4.1.3 COVID/Flu Combination Vaccine

• Status
  : Under review in Europe/Canada
• Expected Approval
  : As early as2026
• Strategic Significance
  : Simplify vaccination, improve compliance, open new revenue streams

###4.2 Long-term Growth Driver: Personalized Cancer Vaccines

####mRNA-4157 (Intismeran Autogene) - Core Asset

, Moderna’s most promising non-COVID product:

[0]:

• 8 Phase2/3 trials ongoing
• Indications: Melanoma, NSCLC, bladder cancer, renal cell carcinoma
• 3 Phase3 projects
  , including key melanoma study

[0]:

• 44% reduction in recurrence/death risk (HR0.56, p=0.0266)
• Significant improvement in recurrence-free survival
• Good safety profile

:

• Personalized cancer vaccine market expected to reach $10-15 billion by2030
• Large patient base for melanoma/NSCLC
• Pricing Power
  : Personalized therapy can reach $100k-$200k per course

:

• Potential Approval
  :2025-2026 (melanoma)
• Peak Sales
  : Up to $3-5 billion/year in bullish scenario

####Other Oncology Pipeline [0]

• mRNA-4359: CPI-refractory melanoma
• mRNA-4106: Cancer antigen therapy
• mRNA-2808: T-cell participant
• mRNA-4203: Cell therapy enhancer

###4.3 Rare Diseases & Latent Virus Projects

Moderna advances projects like CMV/EBV.先天性CMV project discontinued after Phase3 failure [0], but others progress.

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##5. Valuation Analysis

###5.1 DCF Valuation Results (Broker API Data)[0]

Scenario	Fair Value	vs Current Price
Conservative	-$4.29	-113.6%
Base	-$95.03	-400.7%
Optimistic	-$148.08	-568.5%

: Reliance on 5-year historical growth (41.3%—pandemic anomaly); ineffective for negative cash flow firms; fails to capture breakthrough therapy option value.

###5.2 Analyst Target Price Comparison

Institution	Target Price	Rating	vs Current Price
Jefferies	$30	Hold	-5.1%
Consensus	$28	-	-11.4%
Citigroup	$40	Neutral	+26.5%
Goldman Sachs	$51	Neutral	+61.4%
Highest	$63	-	+99.3%
Lowest	$15	-	-52.5%

: Company profile data [0]

###5.3 Long-term Valuation Framework (Web Search)[0]

Scenario	Valuation	Key Assumptions
Bullish	$90-100	Oncology/latent virus breakthroughs
Base	$65-70	2030 revenue $8-10B, 20-25% operating margin
Bearish	$25-35	Stagnant respiratory vaccine uptake, delayed oncology progress

: Valuation range $3-5/share (may rise post Phase3/commercial validation)

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##6. Is Jefferies’ $30 Target Sufficient?

###6.1 Factors Supporting Conservative View

: Cash burn ($3+B/year), 2030 break-even (2 years late), low short-term visibility, execution risk, competitive RSV market.

###6.2 Underestimated Factors

: Personalized cancer vaccine breakthrough potential ($5-10B/year value); mRNA platform expansion to cytokines/antibodies; cost efficiency (reduce $500M/year OPEX 2026-2027); strategic M&A value (Pfizer/Merck/GSK interest)

###6.3 Comprehensive Assessment

: $30 is reasonable (profitability pressure, COVID decline, no new revenue)
: Too conservative (flu/combo vaccine revenue 2027, cancer vaccine approval 2025-2026)
: Severely undervalued (potential oncology leader, mRNA platform scalability)

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##7. Technical Analysis & Market Sentiment

###7.1 Price Performance [0][0]

Time Period	Performance
1 Month	+14.10%
3 Months	+10.93%
6 Months	+5.70%
1 Year	-25.76%
3 Years	-81.78%

[0]: Trend sideways; Support $41.36; Resistance $43.72; Beta=1.11

###7.2 Analyst Rating Distribution [0]

Rating	Count	Percentage
Buy	9	33.3%
Hold	14	51.9%
Sell	4	14.8%

: HOLD (cautious dominant)

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##8. Risk Factors

###8.1 Key Risks

1. Clinical execution risk (9 Phase2/3 trials, regulatory uncertainty)
2. Financial risk (continuous cash burn, financing risk)
3. Competitive risk (BioNTech/GSK/Pfizer competition)
4. Market acceptance (personalized vaccine cost/pricing)
5. Policy risk (vaccine guidelines, reimbursement changes)

###8.2 Bullish Catalysts

1. Positive oncology trial results (2025-2026)
2. Flu vaccine approval (2026-2027)
3. OPEX reduction beyond expectations
4. Strategic partnerships/acquisitions
5. Stable COVID vaccine demand

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##9. Investment Recommendations & Conclusions

###9.1 Comprehensive Assessment

Scenario	Target Price	Probability	vs Current $31.61
Bearish	$20-30	30%	-37% to -5%
Base	$50-70	50%	+58% to +121%
Bullish	$80-100	20%	+153% to +216%

: ~$52-55 [0]

###9.2 Key Observations

: $30 reasonable (range $28-40)
: $50-70
: $80-100+

###9.3 Investor Recommendations

: Cautious, focus on cash flow/quarterly results
: Buy at $28-35, target $60-80
: Bullish options for oncology breakthroughs

###9.4 Final Conclusion

Jefferies’ $30 target is conservative (short-term reasonable) but underestimates long-term potential.

: Buy at $31.61 for long-term, target $55-65 (12-24 months).

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[0] Jinling API Data (quotes, financials, DCF, technicals)
[1] BioPharma Dive: “Moderna, searching for a rebound, to seek approval of mRNA flu shot”
[2] Seeking Alpha: “Moderna: On Transition From Pandemic Windfall To Multi-Product Platform”
[3] Proactive Investors: “Moderna 2026 Covid and RSV growth not enough to boost stock, Jefferies says”
[4] The Motley Fool: “Moderna (MRNA) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript”
[5] Morningstar: “Pancreatic Cancer Survival Gains Accelerate as Novel Therapies Advance”
[6] Insider Monkey: “Moderna, Inc. (MRNA): A Bull Case Theory”
[7] Yahoo Finance: “Moderna (MRNA) Valuation Check as CEPI Backs Phase3 H5 Bird Flu Vaccine”
[8] Moderna: “Moderna 2025 Shareholder Letter”