Impact Analysis of Haopeng Technology (300521) 800 Million Yuan Private Placement Project on Capacity and Valuation

Haopeng Technology (300521.SZ) will use 800 million yuan from private placement for the “Energy Storage Battery and Steel-shell Laminated Lithium Battery Project”. The impact of this project on the company’s capacity release and valuation highly depends on the project’s disclosure details (capacity scale, unit investment, IRR, production ramp-up rhythm, order and gross margin assumptions) and implementation status. Since no official announcement or authoritative media disclosure of the “800 million yuan private placement” has been retrieved so far, the following analysis provides an impact framework and key verification points based on obtained data (company fundamentals, stock price and trading, technology and industry information).

1. Private Placement Purpose and Direction (Official announcement confirmation required)

• High alignment between fundraising direction and company strategy: If invested in “energy storage battery systems + steel-shell laminated cells”, it aligns with the company’s technological extension and capacity expansion in consumer small steel-shell/laminated processes, and fits the comparative advantages of steel shells in space utilization, heat dissipation and safety [1][2].
• Capacity scale and unit investment are key: Need to extract from the announcement (e.g., “newly built X GWh energy storage cells/systems or Y million steel-shell laminated cells”) and compare with the industry’s unit investment (yuan/Wh) to evaluate the rationality of the project’s capital expenditure.

2. Transmission Path of Capacity Release

• Process synergy and ramp-up: Steel-shell lamination has technical thresholds in welding/packaging consistency, yield rate and automation [1]; the project’s production ramp-up curve and customer certification rhythm will determine the speed of revenue realization.
• Order and customer structure: If there are cooperation intentions with leading consumer electronics/wearable/AI terminal customers (as mentioned in reports about steel shells [2]), order visibility will significantly improve capacity utilization and revenue certainty.
• Asset turnover and profitability: According to brokerage API data, the company’s latest 12-month net profit margin is approximately -7.11%, operating profit margin is approximately -4.01%, and free cash flow is negative [0]. Therefore, new capacity needs to significantly improve gross margin and capacity utilization to increase net profit margin and improve operating cash flow, avoiding further drag on ROE from expansion.

3. Three Mechanisms of Valuation Transmission

• EPS amplification (profit improvement): New capacity increases revenue and profit, but前提是 the project has high IRR/net profit margin and effective cost and expense control.
• P/E revaluation (growth and track premium): Energy storage is a high-growth track; if the project has clear customer framework agreements or落地 contracts, the market may give a higher growth premium. However, the current TTM P/E is negative (-323.33x) [0], so valuation is highly sensitive to profit recovery.
• Asset/market value anchoring: The additional depreciation and amortization brought by the project will increase EBITDA, requiring higher capacity utilization and gross margin to offset. If the project’s asset turnover rate improves significantly, the market may revalue from PB/PS perspectives.

• Stock price and market value: Closed at 28.50 yuan on December 31, 2025, with a full-year 2025 increase of +39.16%, and a 52-week range of 16.20-34.48 yuan [0].
• Valuation indicators: P/B is approximately 8.15x, P/S is approximately 23.33x, and TTM EPS is negative (-0.05 yuan/Q1 FY2025) [0].
• Financial characteristics: Current ratio 4.32, quick ratio 2.73, relatively abundant liquidity; however, the operating level needs to improve net profit margin and cash collection capacity [0].
• Technical aspect (October 1 to December 31, 2025): Volatile consolidation, no clear trend, key support level around 27.96 yuan and resistance level around 29.04 yuan [0].

• Comparative advantages of steel-shell laminated batteries:
  • Space utilization: Better adapts to special-shaped designs and internal corners, improving volumetric energy density [1].
  • Heat dissipation and safety: Steel shells have better thermal conductivity than soft-pack aluminum plastic films, supporting higher rate charging and discharging; rigid structure better meets detachable and safety requirements [1][2].
  • Lamination process: Has advantages over winding in energy density, internal resistance and safety, suitable for scenarios sensitive to volume and safety [1][2].
• Energy storage batteries: The industry is in a stage of high prosperity and capacity expansion. Project implementation needs to have differentiated cost or technical advantages (e.g., system efficiency, safety redundancy, brand and channels, financing feasibility) to avoid homogeneous price wars.

Based on public web search information, there are reports mentioning “strong orders for small steel-shell welding equipment in consumer electronics” and “multiple leading customers launching steel-shell laminated designs and gradually shipping in 2025” [1][2]; however, official details of the “800 million yuan private placement” (e.g., total project investment, capacity scale, construction period, internal rate of return) have not been clarified in retrieved announcements or authoritative media. Therefore, the judgment of impact should be based on the project announcement, focusing on the following verification points:

1. Capacity Release (Quantifiable)

• Target capacity: X GWh energy storage cells/systems or Y million steel-shell laminated cells per year (corresponding to investment intensity of approximately yuan/Wh).
• Unit investment: Compare with industry unit investment (approximately 0.4-1.0 yuan/Wh range) to determine if it is high or low.
• Construction and ramp-up cycle: Timeline from commencement → trial production → mass production → full production (affects revenue and profit realization rhythm).
• Orders and customers: Whether there are framework agreements, share targets, locked prices or long-term cooperation clauses.

2. Valuation Impact (By mechanism)

• EPS elasticity: Calculate the additional revenue/EBIT/net profit after the project reaches full production, combined with total share capital dilution, to estimate the EPS improvement幅度.
• P/E revaluation: If energy storage is a strong Beta track with high order visibility, the market may give a higher multiple; however, TTM P/E is negative, so valuation elasticity is driven by profit improvement.
• PB and PS perspectives: From PB perspective, focus on the synchronous improvement of asset turnover rate and net profit margin; from PS perspective, see if revenue scale and growth rate can support premium.

• Project execution and yield: Steel-shell lamination has challenges in equipment investment, process stability and yield ramp-up, which may lengthen the return cycle [1][2].
• Industry competition and overcapacity: The energy storage track has intensive capital expenditure; homogenization may lead to price wars, affecting project gross margin and cash flow.
• Raw materials and exchange rates: Fluctuations in raw material prices such as lithium and exchange rate changes affect costs and profits.
• Refinancing dilution: If the private placement price is significantly lower than the market price, it may put short-term dilution pressure on EPS and ROE, which needs to be compensated by the project’s long-term returns.

• Full announcement: Check the CSRC-designated information disclosure channel/exchange announcement to obtain details such as total project investment, capacity scale, construction period, internal rate of return/net present value, and order or customer framework agreement details.
• Performance guidance: The project’s profit contribution timeline and range forecast given by the company’s management or brokerage research reports.
• Industry benchmarking: Unit investment, gross margin and capital return rate of comparable companies in the same track for horizontal verification.

• Directionally positive: Investing in “energy storage + steel-shell lamination” is highly synergistic with the company’s technical route in small steel-shell/lamination fields, and steel shells have comparative advantages in space utilization, heat dissipation and safety [1][2].
• Determinant variables lie in execution and orders: Whether capacity can be released as scheduled, whether yield can be improved, and whether order visibility and gross margin are sufficient to support the target return will determine the EPS improvement幅度 and valuation revaluation space.
• Short-term impact is uncertain: Currently, TTM P/E is negative and free cash flow is negative [0]. Before the project is launched, more attention should be paid to the progress of process and customer verification; after the announcement discloses capacity scale, investment intensity, IRR and order details, more accurate quantitative impact calculation can be made.

[0] Jinling API Data (real-time quotes, company overview, financial and technical analysis, annual and quarterly financial data, annual and quarterly earnings, 2025 stock price and trading volume)
[1] PNAS Purina Energy - Steel-shell Battery Sparks New Round of Expansion Boom (Discussion on advantages of steel-shell lamination, application trends of steel shells in consumer electronics and wearables, comparative advantages of steel shells in special-shaped design and heat dissipation, and steel-shell battery expansion and equipment orders)
http://m.gdpurina.com/xingyexinwen/16-519.html
[2] Deloitte Lithium Battery White Paper Series 2: Battery “Storm” (Excerpt) and Related Content of Consumer Battery Industry In-depth Report (Advantages of lamination process, advantages of steel shells in space utilization and heat dissipation, application trends of steel shells and lamination in consumer electronics)
https://www.grepow.cn/ueditor/php/upload/image/20221116/1668570936770961.jpg
https://aigc.idigital.com.cn/djyanbao/【国海证券】消费电池行业深度报告：电性内生替代加速-2025-02-12.pdf

If needed, I can conduct more accurate sensitivity analysis and scenario modeling based on the project’s total investment, capacity scale, IRR, customer and order information after the “800 million yuan private placement” announcement is released.