Analysis of the Impact of Normalized Sales of Moutai Feitian (1499 Yuan) via iMoutai Platform on the Wholesale Price System

Based on the latest market data and channel information, I will systematically analyze the impact of normalized sales of Moutai Feitian at 1499 yuan via the iMoutai platform on the wholesale price system from multiple dimensions.

Starting from January 1, 2026, Guizhou Moutai’s official APP “iMoutai” officially launched Moutai Feitian (53% ABV/500ml/2026 version) at 1499 yuan, adopting a daily limited supply mode. From the actual sales situation [1][2]:

• Jan 1-3
  : Sold out in seconds for 3 consecutive days; over 100,000 users successfully purchased the product
• Jan 4
  : Continued to be sold out in seconds, indicating strong market demand
• Purchase Limit Adjustment
  : Adjusted from the initial 12 bottles per day to 6 bottles to expand coverage
• Delivery Frequency
  : Adopted a restocking mechanism every 5 minutes, but still snapped up by the market

The appeal of Moutai Feitian at 1499 yuan remains significant, mainly due to the following factors:

• Obvious Price Advantage
  : There is a price inversion compared with the current market wholesale price, forming an arbitrage space
• Authenticity Guarantee
  : Official channels provide quality assurance, eliminating consumers’ concerns about counterfeit alcohol
• Convenience
  : Online purchase reduces consumers’ time cost and access difficulty
• Investment Attribute
  : Under the background of price inversion, there is a certain expectation of investment value

From the time-series data, the wholesale price of Moutai Feitian experienced a sharp drop throughout 2025 [1][3][4]:

Time Node	Wholesale Price of Loose Bottles (Yuan/Bottle)	Wholesale Price of Original Cases (Yuan/Bottle)	Drop from Beginning of Year
Early 2025	Approx. 2320	Approx. 2400	-
Dec 12,2025	Fell below 1499	1495	-35.3%
Dec 31,2025	Approx.1565	-	-32.5%
Jan 1,2026	1540	1550	-33.6%
Jan4,2026	Fell below1499	1505	-35.3%

: The wholesale price of loose Moutai Feitian fell below the official guidance price of 1499 yuan again on January 4, 2026, with a cumulative drop of about 100 yuan per bottle compared with a week ago [2][3].

The normalization of the 1499 yuan direct sales price has a direct impact on the wholesale price system, and its transmission mechanism is as follows:

• The official direct sales price of 1499 yuan forms a psychological anchor for the market price
• When the wholesale price is higher than the direct sales price, consumers naturally tend to choose official channels
• The inverted price difference compresses the arbitrage space of middlemen

• The volume of iMoutai directly meets part of the real consumption demand
• Reduces the terminal market’s dependence on dealer channels
• Accelerates the digestion process of social inventory

• The market forms the expectation of continuous price decline
• Speculative hoarding behavior decreases significantly
• Dealers’ selling behavior intensifies the downward pressure on prices

There are significant gross margin differences in Moutai’s channel system, and the 1499 yuan direct sales mode has a direct impact on dealers’ profits [5][6]:

Channel Type	Gross Margin	Price Difference Space
Direct Sales Channel (iMoutai)	95.33%	330 yuan/bottle (1499-1169)
Wholesale Agency Channel	89.42%	Approx.150 yuan/bottle

The ex-factory price of Moutai Feitian is 1169 yuan per bottle, and the direct sales price of 1499 yuan can generate a price difference of 330 yuan per bottle, which is directly converted into the company’s incremental revenue and profit [4].

On December 30, 2025, Moutai announced that it would cancel the distribution mode of high-value-added products from 2026 onwards [1][6]:

• Traditional Mode
  : Moutai sales companies in various provinces distribute to dealers at about 90% of the suggested retail price
• New Mode
  : No longer adopt the distribution method, directly sell at the official guidance price
• Scope of Impact
  : Covers Moutai Feitian and various non-standard Moutai products

This adjustment directly cuts off the profit source of dealers, which is interpreted by the industry as “reducing the burden for agents”, but in fact accelerates the process of channel flattening.

Impact Dimension	Specific Performance
Profit Margin	From “making money lying down” to “losing money per bottle sold”
Inventory Risk	High-priced inventory faces depreciation pressure
Customer Churn	Core customers turn to official channels
Capital Pressure	Difficult inventory turnover, strong demand for capital回笼
Business Model	The traditional “quota + hoarding” model is invalid

From the statement of Moutai’s management, this channel change has clear strategic intentions [1][5][6]:

:

• Practice the market-oriented transformation of “consumer-centric”
• Allow consumers to “buy Moutai fairly, quickly and authentically”
• Build a good pattern of supply and demand adaptation and volume-price balance

:

• Regain market pricing power and stabilize price chaos
• Reclaim channel profits and increase company performance
• Promote the return of the liquor market to rationality and build a transparent and healthy market environment

Indicator	Data	Description
iMoutai Sales in 2024	Approx.20 billion yuan	Accounted for 26.7% of direct sales channel revenue
iMoutai Sales in the First Three Quarters of 2025	12.692 billion yuan	Down 14.05% year-on-year
Direct Sales Revenue Ratio (First Three Quarters of 2025)	43.3%	Significantly increased from 8.5% in 2019
Feitian Direct Sales Price Difference Income	330 yuan/bottle	Directly converted into company profit

If the iMoutai platform sells 10,000 tons of Moutai Feitian throughout the year (about 21.24 million bottles), the annual incremental profit can reach about 7 billion yuan based on the price difference of 330 yuan per bottle.

Although channel reform is beneficial to the company’s development in the long run, the short-term market reaction is relatively cautious [5]:

• The stock price fell by 6.53% cumulatively throughout 2025
• The market value evaporated by about 120 billion yuan
• The closing price on December 31,2025 was 1377.18 yuan per share
• The third quarter performance growth rate hit a 10-year low (revenue +0.56% year-on-year, net profit +0.48% year-on-year)

The normalization of 1499 yuan direct sales will have a far-reaching impact on the Moutai middleman system [4]:

• Scalpers
  : The arbitrage space is greatly compressed, and the living space is seriously threatened
• Secondary Wholesalers
  : High-priced inventory can only be sold at a flat price, facing losses
• Terminal Tobacco and Alcohol Stores
  : Price inversion leads to operational difficulties, and the industry faces reshuffling

Moutai’s channel reform has important demonstration significance for the entire liquor industry [6]:

• Mode Switch
  : From “channel-driven” to “consumer-driven” engine conversion
• Pricing Logic
  : Exploration of the balance between official price control and market-oriented pricing
• Inventory Management
  : Precisely regulate market supply and demand through direct sales channels

Risk Type	Specific Performance
Price Risk	The market price may fall below 1499 yuan, triggering a price war
Channel Conflict	Balance of interests between dealers and direct sales channels
Inventory Risk	Uncertainty in the digestion progress of social inventory
Performance Fluctuation	Direct sales volume may affect short-term performance stability
Brand Value	Price decline may affect high-end brand positioning

1. Impact Magnitude
   : The normalized sales of Feitian at 1499 yuan have had a substantial impact on the wholesale price system; the wholesale price of loose bottles has fallen below the official guidance price of 1499 yuan, with a drop of over 35%

2. Impact Nature
   : This impact is structural, changing the long-standing “price dual-track system” of Moutai and promoting the return of prices to rationality

3. Impact Rhythm
   : Compared with previous expectations, the resistance from dealers is small, mainly because dealers’ profit margins are already extremely limited

4. Long-term Impact
   : Conducive to Moutai’s control of market pricing power, recovery of channel profits, and increase of direct sales ratio, but the impact on brand value needs continuous observation

:

• The gross margin of direct sales channels is significantly higher than that of distribution channels (95.33% vs 89.42%)
• The price difference of 330 yuan per bottle will directly increase the company’s profit
• Channel flattening helps to improve the company’s control over the terminal market

:

• Short-term performance growth slowdown pressure
• Uncertainty of continuous market price decline
• Potential risk of dealer system stability

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[1] Wumian Finance - “iMoutai” shelves Moutai Feitian at 1499 yuan, how big is the impact on dealers? (https://www.163.com/dy/article/KIGJAQQR05198V6E.html)

[2] Yicai - “iMoutai” sold out in seconds for 4 consecutive days, Moutai wholesale price fell below 1499 yuan again (https://www.yicai.com/news/102985925.html)

[3] Sina Finance - “iMoutai” sold out in seconds for 4 consecutive days, Moutai wholesale price fell below 1499 yuan again (https://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2026-01-04/doc-inhfcasv2990046.shtml)

[4] Dazhong Daily - Sure enough Finance | 1499 yuan Moutai Feitian sold out in seconds! Are scalpers really panicking this time? (http://dzrb.dzng.com/general/0/NEWS3030241UINSBENMIZNYI)

[5] The Paper - “iMoutai” parity Feitian sold out in seconds for many consecutive days, Moutai’s new year marketing reform reshapes channel ecology (https://m.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_32317410)

[6] Rui Finance - 2026 Moutai Marketing Change, Going All Out for “Marketization” (https://m.rccaijing.com/news-7412031266541466893.html)