Remegen Telitacicept Multi-Indication Sales Peak Forecast Analysis

Based on the latest forecast data from multiple brokerage research institutions and the company’s public information, Remegen’s core product Telitacicept (RC18) has an optimistic sales peak forecast amid multi-indication expansion. The following is a systematic analysis from different dimensions:

As the world’s only marketed dual-target fusion protein for rheumatic immune diseases, Telitacicept has made breakthrough progress in multiple core indications [1][2][3]:

Telitacicept has become the world’s first dual-target biologic for myasthenia gravis with both EU and U.S. orphan drug designations [2].

• U.S. Market Sales Peak: $1.5 Billion
  (gMG indication only)
  • Core assumptions: 60% success rate, 30% peak market share, $6,000/week treatment cost
  • Significant price advantage over competitor Vyvgart (over $15,000/week)
  • Referring to Visible Alpha’s consensus seller forecast, Vyvgart’s global sales peak for MG indication is expected to exceed $5 billion [4]

Based on the latest DCF valuation model, SPDB International gave the company a target price of HK$29 (Hong Kong stock) and RMB40 (A-share) [5].

• China Market 2031 Sales: Expected to exceed RMB 6.12 billion
  • Of which, the domestic sales of SLE indication are expected to reach RMB3.609 billion in 2031
  • Overseas market sales are expected to reach RMB1.062 billion
• Forecast based on Frost & Sullivan’s patient population calculation and penetration rate assumptions [6]

• Comprehensive layout of Telitacicept in six core indications
• Undervalued market potential in the rheumatic immune disease field
• The company’s overall revenue is expected to exceed RMB16.4 billion by 2030 [7]

1. Systemic Lupus Erythematosus (SLE)
   • About 1.0349 million patients in China (2020), expected to reach 1.0947 million by 2030
   • Only GSK’s Belimumab is the existing biologic competitor, with a good competitive landscape
   • Telitacicept has the best efficacy in the SLE field

2. Myasthenia Gravis (MG)
   • Approved by NMPA in 2025 and received EU Orphan Drug Designation
   • Broad overseas market space; the $1.5 billion peak forecast is the main contribution source
   • Significant price advantage over competitor Vyvgart

3. Primary Sjogren’s Syndrome
   • Phase III clinical trial success; subsequent commercial potential expected
   • No competitors will emerge in the next 5 years, with obvious first-mover advantage

4. IgA Nephropathy, Rheumatoid Arthritis etc.
   • Continuously expand the indication map and build a long-term growth main line
   • Significant synergy of multiple indications

The company expects to break even in 2027 [4][5].

1. Continued loss reduction trend
   : Net loss attributable to parent in Q1 2025 narrowed by 27.2% YoY
2. Sufficient capital reserves
   : H-share placement raised HK$796 million to support pipeline expansion
3. Accelerated internationalization
   : Telitacicept global Phase III study progress
4. Continuous approval of new indications
   : Commercialization of MG, SS and other indications

• Overseas licensing risk
  : Delays in international Phase III or licensing terms not meeting expectations
• Cash flow consumption
  : Continuous R&D investment, uncertainty in break-even timing
• Sales below expectations
  : Market expansion progress of new indications
• Clinical trial risk
  : R&D delays or data not meeting expectations

With its dual-target innovative mechanism and multi-indication layout, Telitacicept shows great commercial potential in the field of autoimmune disease treatment. Based on the latest progress of multi-indication expansion:

• China market peak sales
  : Expected to exceed RMB6 billion in optimistic scenario
• U.S. market peak sales
  : Forecast of $1.5 billion for gMG indication alone
• Global total peak sales
  : Expected to exceed RMB10 billion after combining all indications

With the intensive harvest period of multiple indications in 2025 and the acceleration of internationalization, Telitacicept is expected to become Remegen’s core growth engine, driving the company’s transformation from R&D investment to commercial profitability.

[1] 36Kr - Top 10 Innovative Drug Stocks in China 2025 (https://m.36kr.com/p/3625053547693060)

[2] BOCOM International - Remegen (9995 HK) H-share Placement to Replenish Cash Reserves (https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202505221677247069_1.pdf)

[3] Remegen Official Website - Telitacicept for Injection Instructions (https://remegen.cn/uploadfile/2022/04/06/20220406225004elkNXU.pdf)

[4] Yahoo Finance - BOCOM International Raises Remegen’s Target Price by 87.5% (https://hk.finance.yahoo.com/news/交銀國際升榮昌生物-09995-目標價87-5-評級買入.html)

[5] SPDB International - Remegen Telitacicept Phase III MG Data Positive (https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202504161657243619_1.pdf)

[6] East Asia Qianhai Securities - Remegen (688331.SH) Fourth Global Pharmaceutical In-depth Report (https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202209181578484350_1.pdf)

[7] Soochow Securities - Remegen’s Differentiated Layout in Three Disease Areas (https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202107121503362100_1.pdf)

[0] Jinling AI Market Data API