Chifeng Gold (600988.SS) 2025 Performance In-depth Analysis Report

According to Chifeng Gold’s 2025 annual performance forecast, the company expects to achieve net profit of 30-32 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 70%-81%; non-net profit of 29.7-31.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 75%-86%. The company’s main gold output is about 14.4 tons, and the sales price of gold products increased by about 49% year-on-year [0][1].

Analysis Dimension	Data	Contribution Description
Gold Price Increase	+49%	Direct driving factor
Net Profit Growth	+70% to 81%	Comprehensive growth result
Price Contribution Ratio	Approximately 60%-70%	Core growth engine
Gold Price Elasticity Coefficient	Approximately 0.7	For every 10% price increase, profit increases by 7%

The 49% rise in gold prices is the most important driving factor for Chifeng Gold’s 2025 performance growth, contributing about 49 percentage points of growth, accounting for 60%-70% of the total net profit growth (70-81%) [0]. Based on the company’s 14.4 tons of gold output, the increase in gold prices directly increases operating income by about 120-130 billion yuan.

The transmission path of gold price increases to the company’s performance is clear:

The sales price of gold products directly increased by 49%, and operating income increased significantly while output remained basically flat. The company’s Q3 2025 single-quarter revenue reached 337 million USD, and profitability improved significantly [0].

Mining enterprises have a high proportion of fixed costs. The increase in gold prices reduces unit costs relatively, and gross profit margin increases significantly. According to financial analysis data, the company’s gross profit margin increased from about 30% in 2024 to more than 37% [0].

The net profit margin increased significantly from about 14% to 24%, and ROE reached 25.31%, which is at the leading level in the industry [0].

Through sensitivity analysis, it can be found that Chifeng Gold has strong performance elasticity:

• For every 10% increase in gold prices, net profit is expected to increase by about 7 percentage points
• A 49% increase in gold prices in 2025 theoretically contributes about 34 percentage points of profit growth
• The actual growth of 70%-81% and the better-than-expected 20-30 percentage points come from cost optimization and scale effects

This indicates that the company not only fully benefits from the increase in gold prices but also amplifies the positive effects of gold price increases through internal management optimization.

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In addition to the increase in gold prices, Chifeng Gold’s better-than-expected performance growth in 2025 also benefited from the following factors:

• Low-grade Ore Utilization:
  The increase in gold prices makes previously uneconomical low-grade ores exploitable. The company actively expands the selection volume of low-grade ores to maximize resource utilization [2]
• Mineral Processing Process Optimization:
  Improve mineral processing recovery rate through technical improvements
• Domestic and Foreign Synergy:
  The Laos Sepon Mine has entered the harvest period, and profitability has improved significantly [2]

• Although the total output of 14.4 tons is basically the same as that in 2024 [2], the proportion of high-grade ores has increased
• The mineral processing recovery rate has increased, and the actual metal output efficiency has risen
• The contribution of output quality improvement to profits exceeded market expectations

• The asset-liability ratio is controlled at around 46%, which is lower than the industry average
• Interest burden continues to reduce
• Operating cash flow improves, providing sufficient financial support for the company

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Supporting Factor	Specific Analysis	Certainty Degree
Central Bank Gold Purchase Demand	Global central banks’ net gold purchases reached 634 tons in the first three quarters of 2025, and it is expected to be 750-900 tons for the whole year [1]	★★★★★
Geopolitical Risks	The global situation remains tense, and safe-haven demand supports gold prices	★★★★★
Fed Monetary Easing	It is expected to start the interest rate cut cycle in 2026, which is beneficial to gold	★★★★☆
Institutional Bullish Expectations	Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, and Bank of America all expect gold prices to challenge 5000 USD/ounce in 2026 [1][2]	★★★★☆

2025 is the “highlight year” for gold. Gold prices rose by 1757 USD from the closing price at the beginning of the year, an increase of 67.0%, and hit a stage high of 4381 USD in December [1]. The gold bull market is still continuing, and multiple positive factors provide solid support for gold prices in 2026.

• 2025 Output:
  14.4 tons, basically the same as 2024 [2]
• Domestic Mines:
  The expansion project of Wulong Gold Mine continues to advance
• Overseas Mines:
  The Laos Sepon Mine still has room for production increase
• Future Target:
  2026 output target is 15 tons, 2027 is 16-18 tons

The company’s output decline in the first half of the year was mainly due to the increase in low-grade ore processing volume and the advance rainy season affecting the mining volume of overseas mines. With the gradual release of production capacity, output growth is expected to accelerate [2].

• Mature low-grade ore utilization technology and obvious cost advantages
• Continuous emergence of synergy effects between domestic and foreign mines
• Management expense ratio continues to decline
• Conservative and stable financial attitude, healthy depreciation/capital expenditure ratio [0]

Indicator	Chifeng Gold	Industry Average	Evaluation
ROE	25.31%	~15%	Industry Leading
Current Ratio	2.94	~1.5	Strong Solvency
Net Profit Margin	23.74%	~18%	Excellent Profitability
Asset-Liability Ratio	46%	~50%	Financially Stable

The company’s financial risk rating is “low risk”, with abundant cash flow, providing sufficient financial support for future expansion [0].

• ⚠
  Gold Price Volatility Risk:
  If gold prices callback in 2026, performance will be under pressure; multiple technical indicators show that there may be an overbought risk in the short term [1]
• ⚠
  Output Growth Less Than Expected:
  The progress of expansion projects may be delayed
• ⚠
  Cost Increase Risk:
  Rising labor and energy costs may erode profits

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Predictions are made based on three scenarios: conservative, neutral, and optimistic:

• Gold Average Price: 4200-4800 USD/ounce in 2026 (neutral scenario, +5%~15% year-on-year)
• Gold Output: 15 tons in 2026, 16-17 tons in 2027
• Cost control capability remains

Year	Net Profit Forecast	Year-on-Year Growth Rate	Scenario Description
2026	38-42 billion yuan	20%-35%	Neutral Scenario
2027	45-50 billion yuan	15%-20%	Neutral Scenario

Scenario	Gold Price Assumption	Output Assumption	2026 Net Profit
Conservative	4000 USD	14.5 tons	35 billion yuan
Neutral	4500 USD	15 tons	40 billion yuan
Optimistic	5000 USD	16 tons	45 billion yuan

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• Current PE: 22.20 times (based on TTM) [0]
• Industry Comparison: Zijin Mining PE is about 15 times, China Gold International Resources PE is about 20 times
• Relatively high valuation, but the premium is reasonable considering the company’s high growth and leading position

• Based on the 2026 net profit center of 40 billion yuan, given 18-20 times PE
• Reasonable Market Value: 720-800 billion yuan
• Reasonable Stock Price: 25-35 yuan (A-share)

1. Fully benefit from the gold bull market with high performance elasticity
2. Industry-leading profitability with ROE above 25%
3. Financially stable with abundant cash flow
4. Clear room for output growth
5. Leading low-grade ore utilization technology and strong cost control capability

1. Performance is highly dependent on gold prices, and gold price volatility risks are directly transmitted to performance
2. Current valuation is at a medium-high level in history
3. Uncertainty in output growth

• Investment Positioning:
  Core target in the gold sector, benefiting from the gold bull market cycle
• Buying Opportunity:
  Can be布局逢低 when gold prices callback
• Holding Period:
  It is recommended to hold for the medium and long term to enjoy the double dividends of gold price increase and output growth
• Position Allocation:
  Can be used as the core allocation of the gold sector, with a recommended allocation ratio of 10%-20%

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A 49% rise in gold prices is the core driver of Chifeng Gold’s 2025 performance growth, contributing about 49 percentage points of net profit growth, accounting for 60%-70% of the total growth. Since output remained basically flat, the better-than-expected 20-30 percentage points of growth mainly came from cost optimization, scale effects, and reduced financial expenses.

Looking ahead, the company has strong growth sustainability: gold prices are supported by multiple factors such as central bank gold purchases, geopolitics, and Fed interest rate cuts; output growth space is clear; cost control capability continues to improve; financial status is healthy and excellent. Although gold price volatility and output growth less than expected are the main risks, the company still has good investment value after comprehensive evaluation.

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[0] Jinling AI Brokerage API Data - Chifeng Gold (600988.SS) Company Profile, Financial Analysis, Market Data

[1] Huitong Network - “2026 Gold Price Outlook: After Record Growth, Gold Prices Will Steadily Rise” (https://gold.cnfol.com/jinshizhibo/20251227/31896435.shtml)

[2] Finance Magazine - “Gold Stocks Enter the Golden Age” (https://www.mycaijing.com/article/detail/560645)

[3] China Fund News - “Gold Prices ‘Ride绝尘’, Non-ferrous Metals ‘Win the Championship’, Metal Industry Enters Highlight Moment” (https://www.chnfund.com/article/AR92a68771-89f8-b5ce-d978-3a1e533d9bfb)

[4] East Money - “Chifeng Gold: 2025 Net Profit Increased by 70%~81% Year-on-Year” (https://finance.eastmoney.com/a/202601053608827668.html)

[5] CICC - 2026 Metal Market Outlook (https://www.chnfund.com/article/AR20251220011506764)